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红杉资本为硅谷敲响警钟预计经济形势将继续恶化2008-10-9著名风险投资机构红杉资本周三在一次会议上针对当前的经济形势发出预警，并要求企业做好准备，应对经济持续下行带来的压力。消息人士表示，红杉资本是此次会议的组织者，参加该会议的均为接受红杉资本投资的企业。红杉资本在会议中展示了一幅画，画面主体为一块墓碑，墓碑上写着“安息吧，好时光”的字样。红杉资本的数名合伙人在会议上发表谈话，包括MikeMoritz和DougLeone。他们指出，未来的经济形势将比人们预期中更加恶劣，经济的下行趋势将会延长，很可能持续数年。红杉资本希望与会企业能够削减成本，找到合适的方法生存下去，并且在经济滑坡的最后阶段脱颖而出。该机构详细分析了企业运营中的各个职能模块，并告诉这些企业如何削减成本。MikeMoritz本周初在接受《金融时报》采访时曾表示，很明显所有公司的需求都将减弱，无论公司主要面向企业用户还是面向消费者。Moritz此前一直以前瞻性著称。红杉资本并不是唯一发出这种预警的投资者。硅谷知名天使投资人RonConway日前也在一封秘密邮件中指出这一点。红杉资本曾在2000年互联网泡沫破灭之前发出类似的预警，而听取该机构劝告的企业后来均获得成功，例如Google和贝宝。Today,SequoiaCapitalhostedamandatoryCEOAll-HandsMeetingonSandHillRoad(whereelse?).Therewereabout100CEO’sinattendanceandletmetellyou,themoodwassomber.I’mnotonetoperpetuatedoomandgloomorbadnews,butletmeunderscorethisforyou:Weareinaseriouseconomicdownturnandthisisjustthebeginning.Immediate,decisiveandswiftactionisrequired,alongwithfrugal,day-to-daymanagementofexpensesandourbusinessisrequired.Herearethenotesfromthemeeting.Speakers:·MikeMoritz,GeneralPartner,SequoiaCapital(hemoderatedthespeakers).·EricUpin,Partner,SequoiaCapital(Ericranthe$26-BillionStanfordEndowmentFundandknowsafewthingsaboutEconomicsandinvesting.)·MichaelPartner,SequoiaCapital(MichaelwasrecruitedtostartSequoia’sveryfirsthedgefund,comingfromMaverickCapitalandRobertsonStephens.IknowhimfrommyBEAdays.)·DougLeone,,GeneralPartner,SequoiaCapitalSlideprojectedonthehugeconferenceroomscreenaspeopleassembledinsidetheconferencecentertotaketheirseats:agravestonewiththeinscription:RIP,GoodTimes.MikeMoritz:·TheonlytimeSequoia’sassembledallCEO’slikethiswasduringthedot.comcrash.·Weareindrastictimes.Drastictimesmeandrasticmeasuresmustbetakentosurvive.Forgetaboutgettingahead,we’retalkingsurvive.Getthispointintoyourheads.·Forthoseofyouthatarenotcash-flowpositive,gettherenow.Raisingcapitalisnearlyimpossibleifyou’retoofaroffofcashflowpositive.·Therewillbeconsequencesforthosewhohesitate.Actnow.EricUpin:·It’salwaysdarkestbeforeit’spitchblack.·Survivalofthisstormmeansdrasticmeasuresmustbetakennow,soyouwillhavetheopportunitytocapitalizeonthisdownturninthefuture.·Weareinthebeginningofalongcycle,whatwecalla“SecularBearMarket.”Thiscouldbea15yearproblem.[manyslidesonhistoricalchartsofpreviousrecessions,averaging17yearcycles.]·Thecreditmarket[versustheEquitymarkets]aretheissueandwilltaketimetorecover.·Inflectionpoint:Makechanges,slashexpenses,cutdeepandkeepmarching.Youcan’tbeageneralifyouturnback.·Thisisaglobalissueandnota‘normal’time.·Thereissignificantrisktogrowthandyourpersonalwealth.·Advice:oManagewhatyoucancontrol.Youcan’tcontroltheeconomy,butyoucancontroleverythingelse.§Cutspending.Cutfat.PreserveCapital.§Don’ttrustyourmodelsandspreadsheets.Allassumptionspriortotodayarewrong.§Focusonquality.§Reducerisk.MichaelBeckwith:·Note:Michaelhadalotofslidesthatwerecharts,datapointsandcomparisons.·A“V”shapedrecoveryisunlikely[√]·CutsinspendingwillaccelerateinQ4/Q1.LookateBay—thisisjustthebeginning.DougLeone:·Thisisadifferentanimalandwilltakeyearstorecover.·Gettinganotherroundifyou’renotprofitablewillberough.·Doeverythingpossibletogettocashflowpositive.Now.·NailyourSalesandMarketingmessage.·Poundyourcompetitorsshortcomings.They’rehurtingandtheywillbequiet.Taketheoffensive.·Inadownturn,aggressivePRandCommunicationsstrategyiskey.·M&Awilldecreasedramaticallyandonlyleancompanies,withprovensalesmodelswillbeacquired.·Spectrumdiscussion:oCapitalPreservationß----------------------------------àGrabMarketoEveryoneshouldbefartotheleft(capitalpreservation)·Requirementsofourcompanies:oYoumusthaveaprovenproductoYoumustcutexpenses.Nowanddeep.oYourproductshouldreduceexpensesanddriverevenueoHonestlyassessyoursolutionvs.yourcompetitors.oCashisking[haveyougottenthismessageyet?]oYoumustgettoprofitabilityassoonaspossibletoweatherthisstormandbeself-sustaining.·Operationsreview:oEngineering:Sinceyoualreadyhaveaproduct,stronglyconsiderreducingthenumberofengineersthatyouhave.oProduct:Whatfeaturesareabsolutelyessential?Choosecarefullyandfocus.oMarketing:Measureeverythingandcutwhatisnotworking.Youdon’tneedlargeProductMarketing,ProductManagementteams.oSales&BusinessDevelopment:Whatisyourreturnonthisinvestment?TheValleyhasgottenfatwithSalespeople:Bigbases,bigvariables.Cutbasesalariesonsalespeople,highlyleveragethemwithupside(increasevariable)andmakepeoplepayforthemselvesviaincreasedsalesproductivity.Don’taddsalespeopleuntilyou’veachievedyourgoalswithsalesproductivity.Bedisciplined.oPipeline:Scrubtheshitoutofitandbehonestwithyourself.oFinance:Deferpayments,whatisessential?Killcashburn.·DeathSpiraloThedeathspiralsucksyouin,you’reinitbeforeyouknowitandthenyoudie.oSurvivalofthequickest.oCuttingdeeperistheformulaforsurvival.oYoushouldhaveatleastoneyear’sworthofcashonhand.oTactics:§Assessyoursituation.Dropyourassumptions,startwithablankpageandstartzero-basedbudgeting.§Adaptquickly§Makeyourcuts§Reviewallsalaries§Changesalescomp§Bolsteryourbalancesheet—ifyoucanadd$5Mtoyourcoffers,takeitandsaveit.§Spendlikeit’syourlastdollar.红杉资本SequoiaCapital一封预期悲观的信件(2008-12-1018:03:23)转载标签：杂谈分类：金融海啸实况[10月15