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••1.11.1.11-111-21995696%4%1-11-21.1.2131.1.31-31-31.1.4199520001995560012001.842.1-41-41.271-11.2.1151.2.21-1WtStrtWt-11995402.91819951-21-210$1855034611720418112872$43898199513.12930.7691.2.361.2.41-3199510$304.724.3%0.5234.368.8303.624.1157.112.5271.8125.4-63.1334.126.655.74.4$1154.892.0100.98.0$1255.7100.0%19951100%BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,FlowofFundsAccountants:FlowsandOutstandings,FirstQuerter1995.1-31995110171.2.5NOW1.2.61.2.71.38FSF••••••/1.3.1111IOUIOU1.3.2IOU191.=1.=+=++2.=2.=3.=3.=a.b.CDCDNYSEOTCIOU1-41.3.31-4199510$756.5$100000+435.02206.32219.2593.6299.7612.629.8$7152.7$4467.06573.62462.22455.9917.4983.8$17859.91995BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem.101.3.41111.3.56613281.3.61.2.12()3.3274.BCCI31.3.71-5241131-5••24••••••••1.4147:00241002482224252627301151.2.3.4.5.6.1./1(1)(2)9800(3)Texaco100(4)/100006(5)15000CD(6)2500250090242.(1)JamesRhodes(2)SharonMacArthur(3)(4)DynamicCD(5)16(6)CalJaneLewis(7)Hillcrest3.467774217090424536976677396-143053243922182481950004.1850540016500390074007502950601044205450415803980187080014914528504108701370313705.3.352.8924.364.5%6.Wilkins175000440036000348007.37860363101173639053018•••2.12.222.2.12.2.22-120000200001000001000002-1202-1$13000$20000100015004000500$20000$20000$10000$10000025000600005000$100000$100000IOU221IOU10000IOU100002-2IOU13000100002-2$3000$2000010000100015004000500$20000$20000$10000$1000035000100000600005000$110000$1100002.310000100004000400040004000500010002240005000400010002-140004000IOU50004000IOU2-210002-32-42-52-62232.4JohnGurleyEdwardShaw1960REFAD2-7ERFA+DRE+FADERDFAREFADR=EDFA2-31995560029502600199512303850262025002801995405026001995164024CD2-3199510$556.6$295.0$261.6262.2385.1-122.9-91.8-62.4-28.726.2279.5-253.3301.8137.0+164.81995BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,FlowofFundsAccounts,1995.2.52.5.1122.5.2126622511609032/326M1NOW1996M11M2M1100000241996M2360002.632.6.1IOU2-1IOUIOU227M3M21000001996M344000LM31996L55000M1M1M2M3L()2-12.6.22-22-2IOU2.6.32-4IOU2-3282-41000002-32292.72-5400001/44440322-52-5101960197019801990199522448912483340426111125279413581017116201464136719193811041316292491174764602165620601988201236286319961175926501745346897449863330()1960197019801990199561872202299164939461324716362624551995BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,FlowofFundsAccounts:FinancialAssetsandLiabilities,selectedyears.2.82.92312.102-42-48090322.11331.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.2331.10$434.6$292.02.7-2.58.735.084.9127.874.860.613.0236.3150.729.032.031.2256.0245.7556.9590.72.(2-4)(2-5)(2-6)1520106020506515454085255135259030140756055102025301701701901902152153.(1)(2)34(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)4.ITT5.425.77500ITT5.235••••53.133.1.1EMHEMHCAPMERiiERMrβi[E(RM)rf]Mβiβ1RMSML3-1EMHARi[ERi]EXREXRSMLEMHSMLSMLSMLSMLEMHEMH337ARiE(Ri)EXREXRiARiE(Ri)3-13-1SMLEMHEMHPttΩtP*tEMHtProbS/ΩtPtEMH(ΩtΩt+1EMHEMH33EMH(1)38E(Ri)β3-23-3(2)(3)106-5273.1.233940EMH1.2.,(1)PeterFortune1990meanreversion341Camerer,LowensteinWeber(1989)(2)1933SECSECSEC1934SECSECNASDSECNASD1940SEC1970SIPC$500000$100000SIPC3.23.2.1100055103.2.2423.2.3WSJWSJOTC3-1WSJ19963211/80.1251003-1TheWallStreetJournal,Southwestedition,March22,1996,p.C16.ReprintedbypermissionofTheWallStreetJournal,©1995DowJones&Company,Inc.AllRightsReservedWorldwide.AT&T7.5%2006105AT&T$1050cv.CurYld343113.2.4(BondBuyer)(SurveyofCurrentBusiness)3-219851996contrarions3-33-2198519901992199419951996Aaa8.606.966.095.776.455.809.117.296.486.186.445.9512.059.778.558.268.737.83Aaa11.379.328.147.978.497.59Aa11.829.568.468.158.627.72A12.289.828.628.288.727.83Baa12.7219.368.988.639.108.201995119961BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,FederalReserveBulletin,selectedissued.3-319956266101.6101.5624395000390000M2619$92$10031.9%1.3%44()1995626GDP2rev2.7%2.7%GDP2rev3.3%3.3%1TheWallStreetJournal,SouthwestEdition,June26,1995,p.A4.3.33.3.1NewYorkAmericanMidwestPacificPhiladelphiaBostonCincinnatiWSJ3-412P-E1/8ArnoldBernhard&CompanyTheValueLineInvestmentSurvey10(S&P)StockReportsS&PS&P345pfu52d52s5225%xDailyStockPriceRecordTrendlineTrendlinesCurrentMarketPerspectiveWeisenberger3-4TheWallStreetJournal,Southwestedition,Maroh20,1996,p.C3.3.3.230201515ConsolidatedEdison463-53-5TheWallStreetJournal,SouthwestEdition,March22,1996,p.C2.400500500400402040(40034746530303-648TheWallStreetJournal,SouthwestEdition,March22,1996,p.C11.TheWallStreetJournal,SouthwestEdition,March20,1996,p.C16.500)500NYSEAMEX3-7349TheWallStreetJournal,Southwestedition,March20,1996,p.C16.NASDAQOTC3-5BarronsTheWallStreetTranscriptForbesFortuneMoneyFinancialWorld3.3.33-63-6(3-7)3.43.4.1(IndustrialManual)(BankandFinanceManual)(PublicUtilityManual)(TransportationManual)(MunicipalandGovernmentManual)BondRecordBondGuide60003.4.2SECSECSECDisclosureIncorporated11000100000SEC10-K10-K5503.4.3Dun&BradstreetDun&Bradstreet(D&B)BusinessInformationReport3-8Dun&Bradstreet351Dun&Bradstreet.3003-8D&BDun&BradstreetD&B800Troy'sAlmanacRobertMorris&AssociatesAnnualStatementStudiesIndustrySurveysAnalystsHandbookBarron3.4.4(JournalofCommercialBankLending)(BankersMagazine)FinancialAnalystsJourna