融资结构、不良资产与中国

M2PGDP3:M2PGDP,M0PGDP19801993,1993,M2PGDP1985;M2PGDP,M2PGDP:M2PGDP3,,:100083,:[e-mail],;,,,:100800,:[e-mail],,M2PGDP,(1);(,2002),(,2001;,2002;,2004),(,1996;,2003;,2005)M2PGDP,M2PGDPM2PGDP,(,2003)M2PGDP,GDPPM,M2PGDP(,2001;,2002;,2002;,2004)M2PGDP(,2001;,2002)119852005M2PGDP7220072M2PGDP(,2003;,2004;,1999;,2005)M2PGDP,M2PGDPM2PGDP,M2PGDP(2000)(2004,P5)M2PGDP,,(2002,P353)M2PGDP,,M2PGDP(2005,P46)M2PGDP(2006)M2PGDPM2PGDP,M2PGDP,,M2PGDPM2PGDP;M2PGDP;M2PGDP;;12M2PGDPMPGDPMM0M1M2,(Kocherlakota,1998a,1998b;Kiyotakietal,2002;TemzelidesandYu,2001;HolthausenandMonnet,2003):(theabsenceofdoublecoincidenceofwant)(thelackofcommitment)(asymmetryofinformation),,,MPGDP,,;,,1978,19801993M0PGDP,M2PGDPM0PGDP,M2PGDP,M0PGDPM0PGDP19801993,1993,(2);M2PGDP19852005(1)M2PGDP,,,,,,,19991282:M2PGDP219802005M0PGDPM142112%,M210143%;,(3),,(outsidemoney)(insidemoney),(),;,3M0PM1M0PM2,M2=M0++=M0++++=M0+M0PGDP1993,,M2PGDP,19932005,50%,,,(1);,34%,M2PGDP,::,;92200722006,P110,,,,M2PGDPMishkin,FredericS.,TheEconomicsofMoney,Banking,andFinancialMarkets(sixthedition),P58.1PPPP1993015240011114014126012966199401542901118101424801332419950156110111130144980132501996015724011136014588013312199701572601124401448301354619980157250112450144800134821999015601011378014223013493200001536301151601384701367620010151720115660136070136142002015182011677013505013579200301514301174301340001359820040151390117800133590136402005015134011776013358013500,,,,,,,;,,,,,,GDP,M0,M1,M2,M1M0,M2M1,,,AB,,CD,(),,,AC,BD,CD,M0M1M2(,,),,,,,,,,,,ABCD,,,,,M0M1M2()03:M2PGDP(),,,,;,,AB,,CD,,,;,M0,M1,M2,M1M2(),,A,,1C,,1,1M0,M1M2BD,,2M0M1M2,,(2),,,,M2M2,,,,,,,,,,M2PGDPM2PGDP,,,M2PGDP,M2PGDP,,,,,,,,,M2PGDP,M2PGDP1320072A,M0M1,M2M2PGDPM2PGDP,M2PGDP,M2PGDP(),,,,,,,,,M1M2,,,,,,,,,,,3L1D0L2r11-r1D0L1+L211-r1D04L1-kD0L2r11-r1D0-kL1+L2-k11-r1D0-kTA(3),L1L2,D0r11-r1D0,r1,1r10,L1+L2=11-r1D0,AD0T,,A,K,423:M2PGDPr2,1r20,Ar21-r1D0-r2Kr11-r1D0-Kr21-r1D0-r2K,D0,r11-r1D0-Kr21-r1D0-r2K,D0,A,r2,A5TA1-r21-r1D0-(1-r2)KAr2-r11-r1D0+(1-r2)KAR=KL1+L2=K11-r1D0=(1-r1)KD0,K=R1-r1D0Ar2-r11-r1D0+1-r21-r1RD05L1-K1-r21-r1D0-(1-r2)KL2r21-r1D0-r2KL1+L2-K11-r1D0-K,r1=r2,ARD0,RA,D0A()M2PGDP,,,(2006)(2006),M2PGDP,,GDP;,,,,M2PGDP(2005,P28)1994200562006,3320072,,AA,,A,,,,GDP,M2PGDP2006,866314,68161%,2412%,20184%,,31139%15%,21131%,19942005R,19942005RD0,M2PGDP=(1-R)(M2-M0)+M0GDP(6)61994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420050125012701294013200014000014400015511014929014265013579013411013589R011967012125012313012518013148013462014337013879013356012816012684012824M2PGDP0181180181450185040189460189010192610183240193911106971121111198811198,,M2PGDP,,,,M0PGDPM1PGDPM2PGDP,,19801993MPGDP,M2PGDP,M2PGDP,M2PGDP(,2002),M2PGDP,,M2PGDP,,,2002:,,2002:,,2006:,3,2005:,1,2002:,6,2005:M2PGDP,10,2004:,4,1999:,4,2005:,8,2001:M2PGDP(19802000),243:M2PGDP2005,2003:,56,2005:FDI,11,2005:,11,2002:,(),12,2000:,8,2002:,1,2005::19942004,12,2003:M2PGDP,5,2003:,(),2006:GDP,4,1996::19841993,,2002:M2PGDP,12,2001:GDP,6,2006:,6,2004:,6,2005::,4,2003:,9,2002:M2PGDP,4,2004:,:aModernPerspective,EuropeanCentralBankWorkingPaperSeriesNo.245.KiyotakiN.,andJohn,M.,2002,EvilistheRootofAllMoney,AmericanEconomicReview,May92(2),pp6266.Kocherlakota,N.R.,1998a,TheTechnologicalRoleofFiatMoney,FederalReserveOfMinneapolisQuarterlyReviewVol.22,No.3,P210.Kocherlakota,N.R.,1998b,MoneyisMemory,JournalofEconomicTheory81,P232251.Kocherlakota,N.R.,2002c,Money:WhatstheQuestionandWhyShouldWeCareabouttheAnswer,AmericanEconomicReview.Temzelides,T.,JialinYu,2001,SufficientConditionsfortheEssentialityofMoney,UniversityofIowaWorkingPaper.StructureofFinancing,Non2performingLoansandM2PGDPXiePingandZhangHuaiqing(GraduateofschoolofPBCandTheResearchDepartmentofPBC)Abstract:ThepapershowsthattheexplanationstothehighratioofM2toGDPinChinaatleastmaketwoquestionsclear.OneisthattheratioofM0toGDPhaskeptrisingfrom1980to1993,andkeptbeingstableafterwards,buttheratioofM2toGDPhaskeptrisingeversince1985.Fewattentionshavebeengiventothisphenomenonintheliterature.AnotheristhereasonwhytheratioofM2toGDPinChinahasbeenlargerthanthatofothercountries.WearguedthatthelargeratioofM2toGDPistheresultofthefinancialsystemofbankingdominatingandlargeamountsofnon2performingloansinthebalancesheetoffinancialintermediariesinChina.KeyWords:StructureofFinancing;Non2performingLoans;M2PGDPJELClassification:E410,E510,O160(:)(:)53200721GDPGDP2005(19982004)M2M1M019804545164517183461239915941619814891164862143961352317127131982532314529417439116751415611198359621759341552918892152101219847208117171107921112141731318198590161089641451981933401998718162216397141986102751210202126720194745171218142238155081819871205816119621583481757141614541530811472011198815042181492813100991669501521341038221297317198916992131690912119491673471123441051961498110199018667181854719152931487931226441471191812081619912178115216171819349191086616317718924116154919199226923152663811254021215