资金流量分析方法的发展和应用

3:,,,,:3:,:100872,:[e-mail];[e-mail],,,,,,(Dawson,1996),,,,(Goldsmith,1965),,;,;,,,,,,,,1,,;,,,,,,;,29:112n:1.2.3.4.(S-I):1.(S-I)2.3.4.,,,,(,1987),Copeland,1948,1955193919531959,,,,,60,,,80(MPS)(SNA)90,1993SNA,,1994(),SNA1993(),1992200312,:,Copeland,,()Copeland,,,Copeland1944,Copeland(NBER),19473920062,(2001)1986,,,,Copeland(1947)NBER,1952,Copeland,,,19361942(),,Copeland,,,Copeland,(Cohen,1972)Copeland:,,(Millar,1991)Copeland(themainmoneycircuit),(technicaltransaction),,,,,Copeland()(),,,,,,,,Copeland,,,,Copeland,,Copeland(),Copeland(1952),(discretionaryhypothesis),,,()Copeland30,:;,(Goldsmith,1965),Heth(1970),Stone(1942)Barker(1984)CentralStatisticalOffice(1989),,,,,,,()(Bain,1973)1.,,,,(),(Gorman,1983)49:,,(),(),,,,Copeland,(2004)Copeland(1947),,GreenMurinde(2000),,,,,,,Copeland(1952)Copeland(1952)19361942Hood(1959),,,Hood,,;,,;,,Goldsmith(1965),,,,,,,Dawson(2004),()()(),,2.,,,Stone(1966)StoneRoe(1971),,()Ajk(j=1n,k=1m)(nm),mn,Lkj(mn),,(nm)A3jkA3jk=Ajk^a-1k(1)^akm(ml),(mm)A3jk1,L3kj=Lkj^xj(2)^xjn()(nl),(nn)L3kj,-1,wjj()ejjlk,k,wj=A3jkk+ej(3)lk=L3kjxj(4)wj=xj(5)k=lk(6),wj=A3jkL3kl+ej=(Ijl-A3jkL3kl)-1el(7)Ijlnlk=L3kj(Ijl-A3jkL3kl)-1el(8)(7)(Ijl-A3jkL3kl)-1,()(8),(Bain,1973)(L3kj);,A3jk,,,StoneRoe(1971)5920062(1)(7)19621966,543,,,,,,,,,20,,(19191939),,,,,,,,,Bain(1973),,,,Barthelemy(1969)Bhatt(1971)Cohen(1957,1961,1963,1968),2060,,,,3.2060,,,,Dorrance(1966),,,,,Taylor(1958),,(Heth,1970;BankofIsrael,1972)BealesandBerman(1966),Wallich(1969),,,,,,(2004),,-,,Holtrop(1957),,,,,Holtrop,,(Holtrop,1957)Segr(1958)Holtrop(1957),,69:,,,,,,,,,Wallich(1969),,,,,,;,(Bain,1973)4.50,,,,2060,,,,,:,,,,,,,(Bain,1973),GreenMurinde(2000),,,GreenMurindeBain(1973):,,,,,(),,,,,,,,Tobin(1963)Dawson(1958)(1)DawsonDawson(1958),5()(),(,)Dawson(),,Dawson,,Dawson,(Dawson,1996),Kleine2Goldberger(1955),20,:;,;19607920062Brookings,FrankDeLeeuwLeeuw(1969),;,6,(2)Tobin(1963)Brainard(1964),TobinandBrainard(1968)(Pitfall),:,,;,,,(Smith,1975),,,,,,,,,(Friedman,1977),Friedman(1977),,Roley(1980),Green(1984)Friedman(1979,1980)Roley(1980),,(Sharpe,1973),,,,Johnson(1970),Backus(1980),(3)Kleine1968LINK,70,,LINK(,2002),:(1),(2),(3)(1)(2),,,,,Dawson(1996):,,,,,,,,()TobinandBrainard(1968)89:,,,,,,(CAPM)(GreenMurinde,2000),,?(nonintegrated)CAPM,(ICAPM),Merton(1973)ICAPMICAPM,Breeden(1979),,MehraandPrescott(1985),,,(GreenMurinde,2000),,,(2004),50,,(2004),,,,,,,,,(2004),,Christiano(1994),,,1,,,,(),Odedokun(1990),19801983,,Ferrari(2001)19971999,,Odedokun(1993)157080(paneldata),,,,9920062CAPM,ZhangNan(2003)90(NIEsASEAN),,,,Dawson(2004)19961997,IMF,,Dawson:()()Bain(1973),,,,,Murinde(1996)GreenandMurinde(1998),,Dawson(2004)Green(2002),,Green(2002),,,,,,,(2002):,,,,;;,(),,,(1980)80,,(1995),(),,,,(),19791986,,:,,(2004),(1998),(2004),-,,,,(2001)001:,,(2002)19921997,,,,80,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1995:,,2004:,10,2005:,,1997:,,2005:2004,,1998:,2,2001:,,2002:,:,,1987:,3,1980:,1,2002:,,,2001:,,2002:,9,2004:,,,,2004:§µÌ,,,,2004:,,,,2004:¾µ,,,Backus,D.,W.C.Brainard,G.SmithandJ.Tobin,1980,AModelofUSFinancialandNon2FinancialEconomicBehaviour,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,12:2,Maypp.259293.Bain,A.D.,1973,SurveysinAppliedEconomics:FlowofFundsAnalysis,EconomicJournal,Vol.83,No.332,December,10120062(2005)()pp.10551093.BankofIsrael,1972,AnnualReport1971,Jerusalem,October.Barker,T.S.,F.vanderPloeg,andM.R.Weale,1984,ABalancedsystemofNationalAccountsforTheUnitedKingdom,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Series30,No.4,pp.461486.Barthelemy,S.,1969,LaMethodedeProjectionaMoyenTermedesCircuitsFinanciersUtiliseedanslaPreparationduVePlanFrancais,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Series15,March.Beales,R.E.andL.S.Berman,1966,NationalAccountsforAnalysingCreditMarketCondition,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Series12,September.Bhatt,V.V.,1971,SavingandFlowofFundsAnalysis:AToolforFinancialPlanninginIndia,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Series17,March.Brainard,W.C.,1964,FinancialIntermediariesandATheoryofMonetaryControl,YaleEconomicEssays,4:10,Fall,pp.431482.Breeden,D.T.,1979,AnIntertemporalAssetPricingModelwithStochasticConsumptionandInvestmentOpportunities,JournalofFinancialEconomics,7,pp.265296.CentralStatisticalOffice,1989,AnInvestigationintoBalancingTheUKNationalandFinancialAccounts19851987,EconomicTrends,No.424,February,pp.74103.Christiano,L.J.,M.Eichenbaum,andC.Evans,1994,theEffectsofMonetaryPolicyShocks:SomeEvidencefromtheFlowofFunds,NBERworkingpaper1994.No.4699.Cohen,J.,1957,AMoneyflowsApproachtoConsumerBehaviour,SouthernEconomicJournal,Vol.23,January.Cohen,J.,1961,SectorInvestmentandtheAvailabilityofFinance,SouthernEconomicJournal,Vol.27,January.Cohen,J.,1963,CircularFlowModelsintheFlowofFunds,InternationalEconomicReview,Vol.4,May.Cohen,J.,1968,IntegratingtheRealandFinancial,viatheLinkageofFinancialFlows,JournalofFinance,Vol.23,March.Cohen,J.,1972,CopelandsMoneyflowsafterTwentyfiveYears:ASurvey,JournalofEconomicLiterature,Vol.10.Copeland,M.A.,1947,TracingMoneyFlowsThroughtheUnitedStatesEconomy,AmericanEconomicReview,May.Copeland,M.A.,1952,AStudyofTheMoneyflowsintheUnitedStates,NBER,NewYork.Dawson,J