CH09StocksandTheirValuation(财务管理,英文版)

9-1Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CHAPTER9StocksandTheirValuationFeaturesofcommonstockDeterminingcommonstockvaluesEfficientmarketsPreferredstock9-2Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Representsownership.Ownershipimpliescontrol.Stockholderselectdirectors.Directorselectmanagement.Management’sgoal:Maximizestockprice.FactsaboutCommonStock9-3Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Social/EthicalQuestionShouldmanagementbeequallyconcernedaboutemployees,customers,suppliers,“thepublic,”orjustthestockholders?Inenterpriseeconomy,workforstockholderssubjecttoconstraints(environmental,fairhiring,etc.)andcompetition.9-4Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Classifiedstockhasspecialprovisions.Couldclassifyexistingstockasfounders’shares,withvotingrightsbutdividendrestrictions.Newsharesmightbecalled“ClassA”shares,withvotingrestrictionsbutfulldividendrights.What’sclassifiedstock?Howmightclassifiedstockbeused?9-5Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Whenisastocksaleaninitialpublicoffering(IPO)?Afirm“goespublic”throughanIPOwhenthestockisfirstofferedtothepublic.9-6Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AverageInitialReturnsonIPOsinVariousCountries100%75%50%25%9-7Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.DividendgrowthmodelFreecashflowmethodUsingthemultiplesofcomparablefirmsDifferentApproachesforValuingCommonStock9-8Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.PDkDkDkDkssss01122331111...Onewhosedividendsareexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate,g.StockValue=PVofDividendsWhatisaconstantgrowthstock?9-9Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ForaConstantGrowthStockD1=D0(1+g)1D2=D0(1+g)2Dt=Dt(1+g)tP0==.Ifgisconstant,then:D0(1+g)ks-gD1ks-g^9-10Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.t0tg1DDtttk1DPVD!Pk,gIf0t0PVDP$0.25Years(t)09-11Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Whathappensifgks?Ifksg,getnegativestockprice,whichisnonsense.Wecan’tusemodelunless(1)ksgand(2)gisexpectedtobeconstantforever..PDkggs01requiresks9-12Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Assumebeta=1.2,kRF=7%,andkM=12%.Whatistherequiredrateofreturnonthefirm’sstock?ks=kRF+(kM–kRF)bFirm=7%+(12%–7%)(1.2)=13%.UsetheSMLtocalculateks:9-13Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.D0was$2.00andgisaconstant6%.Findtheexpecteddividendsforthenext3years,andtheirPVs.ks=13%.012.24722.3823g=6%1.87611.7599D0=2.001.650913%2.129-14Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.==What’sthestock’smarketvalue?D0=2.00,ks=13%,g=6%.Constantgrowthmodel:P0==D1ks–g0.13–0.06$2.12$2.120.07$30.29.9-15Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.D1willhavebeenpaid,soexpecteddividendsareD2,D3,D4andsoon.Thus,CouldalsofindP1asfollows:ks–g0.13–0.06P1==Whatisthestock’smarketvalueoneyearfromnow,P1?^^^D2$2.247^=$32.10.P1=P0(1.06)=$32.10.9-16Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Findtheexpecteddividendyield,capitalgainsyield,andtotalreturnduringthefirstyear.Dividendyld===Capgainsyld==Totalreturn=7.0%+6.0%=13.0%.D1P0P1–P0P0^$30.29$2.127.0%.$32.10–$30.29$30.29=6.0%.9-17Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Rearrangemodeltorateofreturnform:.PDkgDPgs0110toksThen,ks=$2.12/$30.29+0.06=0.07+0.06=13%.^9-18Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.P0===$15.38.WhatwouldP0beifg=0?Thedividendstreamwouldbeaperpetuity.2.002.002.00012313%...^PMTk$2.000.13^9-19Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Cannolongeruseconstantgrowthmodel.However,growthbecomesconstantafter3years.Ifwehavesupernormalgrowthof30%for3years,thenalong-runconstantg=6%,whatisP0?kisstill13%.^9-20Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Nonconstantgrowthfollowedbyconstantgrowth:02.3012.6473.04546.1161234ks=13%54.109=P0g=30%g=30%g=30%g=6%D0=2.002.6003.3804.3944.658...$66.54P34.658130060...^9-21Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Whatistheexpecteddividendyieldandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0?Att=4?Div.yield0==4.81%.Cap.gain0=13.00%–4.81%=8.19%.$2.60$54.119-22Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Duringnonconstantgrowth,D/Pandcapitalgainsyieldarenotconstant,andcapitalgainsyieldislessthang.Aftert=3,g=constant=6%=capitalgainsyield;k=13%;soD/P=13%–6%=7%.9-23Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.25.72Supposeg=0fort=1to3,andthengisaconstant6%.WhatisP0?01.771.571.3920.991234ks=13%g=0%g=0%g=0%g=6%2.002.002.002.002.12.P32.1200730.29.^...9-24Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.t=3:Nowhaveconstantgrowthwithg=capitalgainsyield=6%andD/P=7%.$2.00$25.72WhatisD/Pandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0andatt=3?t=0:D1P0==7.78%.CGY=13%–7.78%=5.22%.9-25Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Ifg=-6%,wouldanyonebuythestock?Ifso,atwhatprice?Firmstillhasearningsandstillpaysdividends,soP00:PDkgDgkgss0101==$2.00(0.94)$1.880.13–(-0.06)0.19===$9.89.9-26Copyright©2001byHarcourt,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhatistheannualD/Pandcapitalgainsyield?Capitalgainsyield=g=-6.0%,Dividendyield=13.0%–(-6.0%)=19%.D/Pandcap.gainsyieldareconstant,withhighdividendyield