4-5spc2

Excersise4-5SPCYearQuarter1994IIIp=4(even)IIIIV1995IIIIIIIV1996IIIIIIIV1997IIIIIIIV1998IIIIIIIVClearPlasticsQuarterperiodDemandDtDeseasonalizedDemandDtDt(basedonregression)SeasonalFactorStForecastEtAtbiasMSEMADPercentErrorMAPETSDesaesonalizedDemandRegressionI1225028200.8025362862862868157328613131.00II2173730460.571824878737344610187592.00SUMMARYOUTPUTIII32412357532730.742283-12912924435256167581.46IV47269378435002.086301-968968-723260542367139-1.97RegressionStatisticsI53514396537270.943352-162162-88621370632658-2.71MultipleR0.955II62143407039540.542368225225-661186517309109-2.14RSquare0.913III73459411941810.832916-543543-12032019383431610-3.51AdjustedRSquare0.907IV87056427244081.607935879879-3242732644101210-0.79StandardError345.5I94120423746340.8941684848-27724315437019-0.75Observations16II102766427448610.572911145145-13122095034759-0.38III112556459550880.50354999399386229056740639112.12ANOVAIV128253496953151.55956913161316217741058148216124.52dfSSMSFSignificanceFI135491539055420.994984-50750716703987954849123.45Regression11749762117497621146.575188.347E-09II144382608357690.763455-92792774343172351521121.44Residual141671269.9119376.42III154315657559960.724182-1331336104041154903121.25Total1519168891IV1612035650962221.9311202-833833-223422205511711-0.44I175648649064490.885800152152-71398724490311-0.14CoefficientsStandardErrortStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%Lower95.0%Upper95.0%II183696668866760.5539983023022313816454808110.48Intercept2593214.8734212.0663958.714E-092131.88953053.60572131.88953053.6057III19484369030.704815-28282043615994561100.45XVariable1226.918.73785312.1068248.347E-09186.66715267.04462186.66715267.04462IV201309771301.8412836-261261-57346930446210-0.13I216616Estimateofstandarddeviationofforecasterror:557.68II224542III235448IV2414469SeasonalFactorsI257432I0.899II267636II0.599III277840III0.698IV288044IV1.800I298248II308452III318656IV328860BlackPlasticsQuarterperiodDemandDtDeseasonalizedDemandDtDt(basedonregression)SeasonalFactorStForecastEtAtbiasMSEMADPercentErrorMAPETSDesaesonalizedDemandRegressionI1320038760.832952-248248-2486168224888-1.00II2765841401.857862204204-445174722635-0.19SUMMARYOUTPUTIII34420447244041.004175-245245-2895450823365-1.24IV42384465746680.511936-448448-73791129287199-2.57RegressionStatisticsI53654494449320.743756102102-6367496925038-2.55MultipleR0.931II68680504951961.679868118811885522975394061491.36RSquare0.867III75695513254601.045176-51951933293529422990.08AdjustedRSquare0.857IV81953589257240.34237342042045327894042222101.07StandardError509.8I94742663459870.794560-1821822712516413954100.69Observations16II1013673685062512.1911873-18001800-15295505815361310-2.85III116640679165151.026177-463463-1992520032529710-3.77ANOVAIV122737657367790.4028117474-191847715749139-3.90dfSSMSFSignificanceFI133486636370430.49536418781878-407116455985412-0.07Regression1236859162368591691.1457751.654E-07II1413186630873071.80138786926926516950016055121.08Residual143638159259868.5III155448693275710.72717817301730238184812868032133.50Total1527324075IV163485788778350.443249-23623621457985976527133.29I177728866280990.956168-1560156058589484170520130.83CoefficientsStandardErrortStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%Lower95.0%Upper95.0%II1816591898983631.9815883-708708-123872980705413-0.17Intercept3612317.0299111.393181.815E-082932.01674291.9412932.01674291.941III19823686270.958179-5757-181827207671112-0.27XVariable1263.927.6463229.54702971.654E-07204.64474323.23577204.64474323.23577IV20331688910.37368737137119079272765611120.29I216972Estimateofstandarddeviationofforecasterror:820.435II2217888III239180AverageofSeasonalFactorStIV244125QuarterTotalI257776I0.762II2619893II1.899III2710180III0.948IV284563IV0.415I298580II3021898III3111181IV325000('000lbs)BlackPlasticDemand('000lbs)3200765822501737442023844742136736640273736548680569519533486131868236331654483485772816591020004000600080001000012000140001600018000123456789101112131415161718192021('000lbs)QuarterQuarterlyDemandABCCorporation(Q1'94-Q4'98)CR-2019/9/3011:571569827858272-StaticForecastExcersise4-5SPCYearQuarter1994IIIIIIIV1995IIIIIIIV1996IIIIIIIV1997IIIp=4(even)IIIIVa1=0.101998Ib1=0.10IIg1=0.10IIIIVSolversolutionforminimizingMAD(20)ClearPlasticsQuarterperiodDemandDtLevelTrendSeasonalFactorStForecastEtAtbiasMSEMADPercentErrorMAPETSDesaesonalizedDemandRegression2593227I1225027882240.9025362862862868157328613131.00II2173730002230.601804676735243000176482.00SUMMARYOUTPUTIII3241232462250.702248-16416418837604172781.10IV4726935282311.806249-10201020-831288059384149-2.17RegressionStatisticsI5351437782320.893345-169169-100023613534158-2.93MultipleR0.955II6214339682280.602393250250-749207237326129-2.30RSquare0.913III7345942692360.702946-513513-12622151873521510-3.58AdjustedRSquare0.907IV8705644412291.83822711711171-913597914551711-0.20StandardError345.5I9412046642290.8941755555-35320154410110-0.09Observations16II10276648712260.59289212612691289734382590.24II