海安县纺织服装业结构优化研究

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文海安县纺织服装业结构优化研究姓名：马海燕申请学位级别：硕士专业：产业经济学指导教师：曹锟生20080301iiiABSTRACTThetextileindustryisthetraditionalpillarindustryoftheHai’anCounty,andalsoisthepredominantindustryoftheHai’anCounty.Duringaboutonehundredyearsofdevelopment,ithasestablishedastrongindustrialfoundation.WithChina’sentryintotheWTO,thequotaoftextilehasbeencancelledsinceJanuary1,2005andtheglobaltextileindustryhasenteredintoanafter-quotaera.ChinesetextileishavingalargermarketandthetextileindustryofHai’anCountyismeetinganewopportunityofdevelopment.Atthesametime,weshouldrecognizethatweareundergoingaglobalrestructuringandfacingmoredrasticcompetitionswithalotofuncertaintybroughtbytherapiddevelopmentofscienceandtechnology.Chinesetextileindustryshouldactivelydealwiththenewproblemsofinternationaltradefrictions,theforeigncurrencyratioadjustingofRMB,thedescendingdrawbackratioofthetextileexportingandtherisingcostoftheglobaloilandthetextilematerials.HowtofosterthecorecompetitionpowerisanimportantproblemfacingtheHai’anCounty’stextileindustry.Currently,withthedevelopmentoftheglobalization,weshouldresolvetheproblemofrestructuringthetextileindustrytomaintainitssustainableandhealthydevelopment.Inordertooptimizeandupgradethestructureofthetextileindustry,weshouldknowwellaboutit.Thisresearchwillbeginwiththemacro-economicbackgroundbothofthehomeandabroad,andusethequalitativeandquantitativemethodstoanalyzethecompetitionconditionofthesilk,costumeandtheotherkindofthetextile,aswellastheproblemsexistingintheindustrialstructureoftheHai’anCounty’stextileindustry.ThepaperwillpredictandoptimizethestructurebyusingthemodeofGM(1,1),onwhichbasis,itwillbringforwardtheoptimizingstrategyofthetextileindustryofHai’anCounty.IthopesthatthisresearchwilldobenefittothedevelopmentofHai’anCounty’stextileindustryandthatoftheothercounties.KeyWords:Textileindustry,Industrialstructureoptimizing,Industrialchain,Industrialcluster,ModelofGM(1,1)v1.1...........................................122.1.....................142.206...........................182.3...................................182.4...................................195.1.............................525.2...........................................56vi,12345678:9(2)101112GM(1,1)1314151617,(1)18(2)2.3061920212223242526272829(1)(2)30(1)31(1)32233(1)34(1)(2)35363738(1)39))(,),2(),1((0000nxxxXΛ=))(,),2(),1((1111nxxxXΛ=2222((1),(2),,())Xxxxn=LΛΛΛ))(,),2(),1((nxxxXiiiiΛ=ΛΛΛ))(,),2(),1((nxxxXmmmmΛ=00000minmin|()()|maxmax|()()|((),())|()()|maxmax|()()|iiikikiiiikxkxkxkxkxkxkxkxkxkxkxgx-+-=-+-),,2,1(miΛ=iX0Xkxx[]1,0∈()ki0g0011()niikkngg==∑140i0giX)0(X)(,),2(),1()0()0()0()0(nxxxXΛ=;,,2,1,0)()0(nkkxΛ=≥)1(X)0(X)(,),2(),1()1()1()1()1(nxxxXΛ=)1(Z)1(X))(,),3(),2(()1()1()1()1(nZZZZΛ=nkkxkxkz,,3,2);1(5.0)(5.0)()1()1()1(Λ=-+=Tbaa),(ˆ=⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=)()3()2()0()0()0(nxxxYΜ⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤---=1)(1)3(1)2()1()1()1(nzzzBΜΜbkazkx=+)()()1()0(()YBBBaTT1ˆ-=aYBˆ,,()YBBBaTT1ˆ-=baxdtdx=+)1()1(abeabxtxak+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-=-)0()()1()1(bkazkx=+)()()1()0(nkixkxki,,2,1),()()0(1)1(⋅⋅⋅=∑==41nkabeabxkxakΛ,2,1;)1()1()1()1(=+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-=+-nkkxkxkxakxΛ,2,1);(ˆ)1(ˆ)1(ˆ)1(ˆ)1()1()1()1()0(=-+=+=+bkazkx=+)()()1()0()1(5.0)(5.0)()1()1()1(-+=kxkxkzbkazkx=+)()()1()0([]TnxxxX,,,21Λ=[]TncccC)(,),(),()(21⊗⊗⊗=⊗Λ[]Tnbbbb)(,),(),()(21⊗⊗⊗=⊗Λ⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗=⊗)()()()()()()()()()(212222111211mnmmnnaaaaaaaaaAΛΛΛΛΛΛΛ()[]jjjccc,∈⊗;,,2,1,0njcjΛ=≥()[]jjjbbb,∈⊗;,,2,1,0mjbjΛ=≥()[]ijijijaaa,∈⊗njmiaij,,2,1;,,2,1,0ΛΛ==≥()XCS⊗=max()()⎩⎨⎧≥⊗≤⊗0.XbXAts42()⊗C)(⊗A)(⊗bX)1,,1,1(~Λ=C⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=mnmmnnaaaaaaaaaA~~~~~~~~~~212222111211ΛΛΛΛΛΛΛ)(⊗A),,2,1)((mibiΛ=⊗XCS~max=⎩⎨⎧≥≤0~~.XbXAts131211,,aaa232221,,aaa43333231,,aaa4411a()9,...,6,5;317564.0317564.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ352734.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk12a()9,...,6,5;667333.0667333.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ128633.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk13a()9,...,6,5;370805.0370805.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ14757.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk21a()9,...,6,5;127004.3127004.3)0(ˆ)1(ˆ151402.0)1()1(=-+=+-kexkxk22a()9,...,6,5;797742.8797742.8)0(ˆ)1(ˆ13671.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk23a()9,...,6,5;644929.2644929.2)0(ˆ)1(ˆ18165.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk31a()9,...,6,5;51116.051116.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ137321.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk32a()9,...,6,5;32358.032358.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ066696.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk33a()9,...,6,5;417177.0417177.0)0(ˆ)1(ˆ16544.0)1()1(=+-=+-kexkxk1b()9,...,6,5;52665.9468652665.94686)0(ˆ)1(ˆ161006.0)1()1(=-+=+kexkxk2b()9,...,6,5;6917.6445566917.644556)0(ˆ)1(ˆ192701.0)1()1(=-+=+kexkxk3b()9,...,6,5;8461.600768461.60076)0(ˆ)1(ˆ222403.0)1()1(=-+=+kexkxk452006201120073212007maxxxxZ++=⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≥≤++≤++≤++0,,457170.0287190.014750.031653562430.184440.5607430.197932373180.024190.0419190.016439321321321321xxxxxxxxxxxx()46=1x521526=2x140378=3x94502320083212008maxxxxZ++=⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≥≤++≤++≤++0,,571040.024340.0137980.0275894319520.1538030.4890930.170123438370.0208710.0368590.011553321321321321xxxxxxxxxxxx=1x807051=2x185400=3x132621720093212009maxxxxZ++=⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≥≤++≤++≤++0,,713270.0206290.0129080.0240495237500.1282560.4265980.146221514950.0180080.032410.008119321321321321xxxxxxxxxxxx=1x1236537=2x243598=3x186364620103212010maxxxxZ++=⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧≥≤++≤++≤++0,,890920.0174830.0120750.0209636350570.1069510.3720890.1