中国石油安全再思考_析油价回落时的石油安全问题

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(11,200433;21,100871):,,,,,:;;;;;:F407.22/D518:A:1673-1026(2009)02-0009-06,,,,,,,,,[1],,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[2]31,,,(1),,,,,,,,,,93:2009-02-10:11(1982-),,,;21(1983-),,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,[3],,,,,(BP),2007,21,113%,1113[4]6,2040,1993,,BP,19651979,838%,19791993,36%,19932007,30%,200728,,,,,,,,,,,,20091,79,6517[5],20031129,,2006,,2010GDP20%,2009,,,,,,,,2005670/20151110/20301650/,317%,2005310/20301310/,200001,355©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[2]146,,,,50%2000,60%65%,,,,,,[6],,,,10%,618%,[7],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),,,2:,:,,,,(3),:,,,,11,,:,,2005,1019200711839,01788,01263,01118,01529,01113,BP2008,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[8],,,[9],250,,,,,,,,[10],,,,,BP,61%4113%,,,21,[],,2006,612,›››;,œœœBP2008,82.2;7312,813,1413;2118;1412;3112;916,4519,,,,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[11],,,,,,,,,,,,,1987200710012%,3116%[4]20,,,2007,5290,[4],,,,,,,,870,,,20068,,201015/50/,,:;;,,,,,,,,,,,:[1].[M].:,2005:16.[2].2007:[R/OL].[3]KennethLieberthal,MikkalHerberg.ChinasSearchforEnergySecurity:ImplicationsforU.S.Policy[J].NBRAnalysis,Vol.17,No.1,April2006:13.[4]BP,BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergyJune2008[J].London:BP,June2008.[5],[N/OL]..,2009-2-5.=1087462210#.[6].[J].,2004(1).[7],,.[J].,2005(1).[8]TheFundforPeaceandtheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,TheFailedStatesIndex2008[J].ForeignPolicy,July/August2008:64-68.[9][]-.[M].,:,2008:200.[10].:[M].:,2007:49.[11],.[J].,2007(5).(18)31,,,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1].[J].(),2000(1):67-68.[2].[J].,2006(2):31.[3]Blanchard,OliverandJordiGali,2007.TheMacroeconomicsEffectsofOilPriceShocks:WhyArethe2000sSoDifferentfromthe1970s?[R].WorkingPapers0711(2007),MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,CenterforEnergyandEnvironmentalPolicyResesrch.[4],.[J].,2008(11):88.[5].[J].(),2005(1):84.[6],.[M].:,2005:300-306.[7].[J].,2008(4):231.FinancialAndPolicySupportintheDevelopmentandUtilizationProcessofChina’sNewEnergyZHUXi-ping1,XIAOXiang-yu2,CHENYin3(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,HunanNo.1NormalCollegeChangsha,Hunan410205,China)Abstract:Inthefaceofsustainedeconomicandsocialdevelopment,mankindconfrontestheunprecedentedpressureonenergy,whichisparticularlyprominentinChina.Therefore,there’snowaybuteithertoreducepowerconsumptionortodevelopandutilisenewenergy.However,thenewenergydevelopmentandutilizationprocesscannotbeseparatedfromthecorrespondingfinancialandpolicysupport.Wemustfurtherdeepenthereformoffinancialsystemandtaxationsystem,fullydevelopthepotentialonmonetarypolicy,industrialpolicy,pricepolicyandfiscalandtaxationpolicytogivefullplaytotheirregulatingandguidingrole.Onthebasisofincreasingenergyefficiency,improvetheexistingenergystructureandimprovethedevelopmentandutilizationefficiencyofnewenergy.Keywords:financialpolicy;industrialpolicy;newenergydevelopmentandutilization;financialsupport;policysupport[:](13)ARethinkingofChinasPetroleumSecurityZHOUYun-heng1,ZHUZhong-bo2(11SchoolofInternationalRelationsAndPublicAffairs,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China;21InstituteofInternationalRelations,BeijingUniversity,Beijing100871,China.)Abstract:ThegrowinggapinsupplyanddemandmakesChinamoreandmoredependentonoverseasoil.Asaresult,petroleumsecurityhasbecomeanimportantfactorinChina’seconomicdevelopmentandnationalsecurity.Internationaloilpriceshavecomedownfromahigherlevel,whichwillhelpenhanceChina’seconomicsecurityinashorttime,butinthelongrun,itcanmayincreasetheriskofoverseasoilsupply.Inresponsetothevulnerabilityofoverseasoilsupplyproblem,thatis,thehighlevelofdependenceonforeignoil,oilsupplydisruptionrisks,aswellasabilitytocopewithsupplydisruptions,ChinaneedstoadoptaYuanJiaoJinGongpolicy(literally,itmeansattackingnearbycountriesandcoordinatingwithfarawaycountries)andfurtherpromotetheimportofoilsupplysourcesandthediversificationofmodesoftransport.Keywords:Chinaspetroleumsecurity;vulnerability;YuanJiaoJinGong;diversification[:]81