中国自然资源消耗与国家资源安全变化趋势3

:2002203215:,,,,40,23(CX10G-C00-01-02)3(,100101),,,,,,,,:,,;,,;,;:X24(44)(75):A:100222104(2002)0320022205,,,,,,,,,,120802080,,GDP2018,4(),1990,GDP,,2080,,2080,:1.119801999,102%,28%,,75%,CO2CO211%222002123CHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENTVol.12No.32002©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:1980100,,,,:,(),,,,,,,200hm2,2.5hm2[1],,,,1.2,(1),,()33.3hm290,,300600hm2[1]90,(2)1.53hm2,16%50,,24.6hm2,2515.6hm2400hm2500hm245700hm2[1,6],,260hm2(3),300m3,2000hm2,8000300,70%,,80%,1/3,90%,50%,,,,2400km,30543,,,8t,1.3,,(615),165543,,,,90,,,32:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(hm2/)(hm2/)(hm2/)(hm2/)0.5451.10.000.000.600.000.3392.81.710.0780.950.370.1690.50.480.3300.080.080.0301.10.950.1060.0330.110.0302.81.710.0300.0840.140.5070.20.510.4100.1010.041.620.9541.8480.74,,,;,,22.1,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,2.2,,1.848hm2,0.65hm2(),,,7.7%,20%,,,;,20,,[2],,,,,,,,2.3,,,,,,,,,4220023©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,WTO,,,,,33.121,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.2,,,,,,,,;,3.3,,50,,[3,4],,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,;,;,,,,,,3.4,20507030,,,20,,,,300[3],52:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,(:)[1],,.[M].:,1995.8386.[2],.[J].,2001,(6).[3],,.[J].,1999,(3).[4],.[J].,2002,(1).[5],,.[M].:,2000.[6].[A].:.21[M].:,2000.196199.TRENDOFCHINASNATURALRESOURCESCONSUMPTIONANDNATIONALRESOURCESSAFETYCHANGEXIEGao2diCHENGSheng2kuiYUGui2ruiGAOWang2shen(InstituteofGeologicalScienceandResources,CAS,Beijing100101,China)AbstractWithnaturalresourceslargelyconsumedandadefinitelossinenvironment,theeconomyofChinahasincreasedrapidly.Inthecomingyears,Chinawillbeonthemarginalpoleofindustrialcivilizationintheworlddevelopmentframe,andwillbedestinedtoconsumemorenaturalresources.Theexpansionofeconomicscaleandtheimprovementofconsumptionlevelwillmaketheecologicalspaceperpersonmorelimited.Asaresult,thewholesocial2economicsystemwillbecomemoresensitivetothechangeofnaturalresourcesandenvironment,andwillbemorereliantonforeignnaturalresources.ItcanbeseenthatitisrelativelyreasonableforChinatotargetfutureresourcessafetywithoutcausinganysevereresourcescrisis.Toachieveresourcessafety,thepreventiveandgradualmeasuresasfollowsshouldbetaken:i)modulatesocial2economicstructureinChinagraduallytofacetherealityofnaturalresourcesshortageandenhancetheefficiencyofnaturalresourcesutilizationoftheentiree2conomicsystem;ii)maintaintheexistingnaturalresourcesinfrastructurescientificallyandimprovethesupplyca2pabilityofnaturalresourcesinordertoavoidunrestorabledestruction;iii)greatlystrengthenitsinternationalim2pactonallfieldsandestablishproperinternationalorderunderwhichChinacanmakefulluseofforeignre2sources.KeyWordsresourcesconsumption;nationalresourcessafety6220023©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.