中国石油贸易与中国的石油安全

中南民族大学硕士学位论文中国石油贸易与中国的石油安全姓名：余小平申请学位级别：硕士专业：中国少数民族经济指导教师：田孟清20070620I1993IIAbstractPetroleumisakindofimportantstrategicresourceandhigh-qualitychemicalmaterial,itisakindofimportantstrategiccommoditywhichrelatesnationaleconomyandthepeople'slivelihood.Thepetroleumresources’securityofonecountrynotonlyrelatesitseconomicsustainabledevelopmentanditssocialstable,butalsohasafurthereffectontheworld’seconomicpatternpoliticalsituationandmilitarysituation.Sincereformandopenpolicyimplemented,ourcountry’seconomicdevelopmenthasahighspeed,andourenergydemandismoreandmorebig.Petroleum,asanimportantpartofenergy,hasarapid-upproportioninthedisposableenergyconsumptionandproductionandbasicallyremainsinonelevel,however,toourcountry’seconomicrapiddevelopment,domesticpetroleumproductionhasnotfarlymetourcountry’sgiganticpetroleumdemands.Thesupplyanddemandgapofpetroleumismoreandmorebig,since1993,inthisyear,ourChinaturnedintothepetroleumnet-importcountryfromapetroleumnet-exportcountry,thepetroleumimportquantityincreasinglygrowsdaybyday.Atpresent,Chineseleftprovingrecoverablepetroleumresourcesinsufficientthesupplyanddemandgapincreasinglygrowth,thisproblemhasbeenoneofprojectingproblemswhichrestrainsChineseeconomicsustainabledevelopment.Thepurposeofensuringpetroleumresources’supplysecurity,itisforensuringnationaleconomycontinuousstablehealthydevelopment,therefore,howtoensurepetroleum’ssupplysecurity,thisproblem,isthisessay’sresearchdirectionandresearchpoint.Thisessayisonthebaseofinternationaltradetheory,andfromtheviewofglobalization,thisessayquotesalargeofdatatospeciallyinvestigateChinesepetroleumresourcesquantitytheproductionanddemandsituationandthetradesituation,moreover,thispaperscientificallyforecastsChinesefuturepetroleumsupplyanddemandbyusingmath-modelandgetsoneconclusion:Chinaisfacingadomestictrendwhichthepetroleumsupplyanddemandgapincreasinglyenlargesbutthepetroleumdemandremainsrapidlygrowth.However,asweallknow,nowadays,internationalpetroleummarketfiercelycompetesverymuch,OurChinaisfacingthisoutsideenergyenvironment,therefore,wemustscientificallyformulateandcarryoutenergysecuritystrategiesensuringChinesepetroleumsecurityinternationalpetroleumcooperationstrategiesandmeasurespromotingthepetroleumtrade.ThispaperanalyzesthemainproblemsintheChinesepetroleumsecurityaspectandintheIIIChinesepetroleumtradeaspectindetail,thenitputsforwardtheeffectivedomesticstrategiesandinternationalstrategiesensuringChinesepetroleumsecurity,andraisessomeeffectivemeasurespromotingChinesepetroleumtradefromtheperspectiveofhowtoeffectivelyuseinternationaltrademethodsinordertoensureourChinesepetroleum’scontinuousandstablesupplyandprovideeffectivepolicyandsuggestionsfornationalrelevantdepartments.KeywordChinaPetroleumtradePetroleumsecurityProblemStrategyMeasure1______2118592019002000200035902000243702120501019731979200320041203692750200560~7020105019781.3020033.81253199319962003130305000GDP80002345119962006199619971998199920002001200220032004200520061028910614105641049510359103361036210394110251190712100370436013532345634843490380038163845387539001501162016321617175718802147220522602318236815494158351572815568156001570616309164151713018100183686712GMGrayModel19852003a-5.588391542607E-02b=12779.296651403-18()()()()()110.05880228675.86228675.86txtxe=+-3-2198520033198520031997-8.837198502.3313219859166916620019869720971419-0.000601987102991027270-0.002551988110561086266-0.017491989115911148688-0.008981990114861214745-0.0575919911241012845770.0351119921336013583920.016761993153191436472-0.0622919941493415190260.01715919951660516630020.001511996174901701005-0.027441997196921777298-0.0883719981981820007550.0095619992107321961230.0421520002269023195650.022292001238782356566-0.013082002247102395333-0.030622003261262551882-0.023243200720082009201020112012201320142015314103321635125371433927941536439244644849117196520034R20.94960.90580.77250.9837R2R0.9918R0.05=0.32469()()210.5931965849.81965854.8YXX=--+--3-3XY2007~2015161471609616024159311581715681155251534715148200720101620024196511321978104051991139791966145419791061519921420419671388198010594199314400196815991981101211994146071969217519821022019951490619703065198310607199615729197139451984114601997160441972456719851248819981605219735361198613607199916000197464851987134132000163001975770619881370220011640019768716198913765200216500197793641990138282003167609046.080.915.66901019971600015160001700010520072015200716147314101526351.41200816096332161712048.46200916024351251910145.62201015931371432121242.89201115817392792346240.27201215681415362585537.75201315525439242839935.35201415347464483110133.34201515148491173396930.842010160002007314103000031526351.4120102121242.8920153396930.845GDP0.211/GDP43242000IEA20103.521.52010401617.31.511330.520051000200070001999200117200172003200232.8200340002004450020042004.4.27122002801060513OPECWTO402005483311761993199619982000200120022003200420052006-376221117259835270622082991200012700138841272116917509781221964143937883146240389613862922696164917184973815788158461628753.0957.9156.80185.2