基于概率断裂力学的在役管道安全评定

,(,100072)(,113001)[],,:,,MonteCarlo,,,[];;;;MonteCarlo[]TE97316[]A[]10009752(2004)04016803,,R/H/R6295BSPD6493ASMEIWB_3650SAPV99,,[1]R/H/R6295,,,,,,,SAPV99,,,1,[2],,5%10%,10%70%,,,[3],,,,,,,,,[3],[4],861200412264JournalofJianghanPetroleumInstituteDec12004Vol126No14[]20040509[](99081414)[](1972),,1993,,,MonteCarlo,3,[0,1]C++rand(),1,2[0,1],N(0,1),:=(-2ln1)1/2cos(22)(1)N(,2):y=+(2)ln(2):y=exp(+)(3)[0,1],W(,),:y=ln11-1/(4),,,2,I,MonteCarlo,,IKPIKSIKNIKMI,:KI=KPI+KSI=KNI+KMI=NKNI(a,b,c)+MKMI(a,b,c)(5),KNIKMI;N;M;a,b,cTGPU,:N=PNP+TNT+UNU+NG(6)M=PMP+TMT+UMU+MG(7),NP,NT,NUP,TU;NG;MP,MT,MUP,TU;MG,,ANSYS(6),(7)(5):KI=(PNP+TNT+UNU+NG)KNI(a,b,c)+(PMP+TMT+UMU+MG)KMI(a,b,c)(8)a,b,c,P,TU,,(8)[5],(8),,:KI=PKPI(a,b,c)(9),KPI(a,b,c)P,SAPV99,SAPV99[5],961264:31/mm200-/mm8-1000000-A/mm50-A/mm2-A/mm0-B/mm150-B/mm2-B/mm5-C/mm35-C/mm016-C/mm3-/m-141610-8-/MPa24512125/MPa53026150/MPa5015/mm1011/C202/MPa24512125/Nmm-3/21635167210320,2000mm,,,,300mm3:A;B;C,,,;0102mm,,,2A245019999990100000150001999328010006727000198851801011482B245019992160100078450001991663010083377000197945201020548C2450199999901000001500019991680100083270001989683010103175%,15%45%wSAPV99Bw=sSAPV99[5],12(SAPV99,),(991999%,0100001),2A,C,,B,,,,,2,,;2,,,,(),,[][1],1[J]1,2003,3(25):2512531[2],1[M]1:,19991[3]WilsonR,AinsworthRA1Aprobabilisticfracturemechanicsassessmentsprocedure[J]1SMIRT11Transactions,1991,Vol1G1[4],,1¦‹Ëͤ¿‡Ìy¤Èӟӏ[C]1159,198412342401[5]GBSAPV99,[S]1[]071200412