安全经济学

11GNP2.5%4%1800231931W.H.HeinrichIndustrialAccidentPrevention80DTheCostofOccupationalAccidentsandDiseases21993200012132.3--44123451253451(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)611-1627112RareEvents3LSLS=LexplS+L02-1l0L0L00ISIS=IexpiS2-2I0i0LlIiL02-1FS4FSIS[LS]ISLS2-32-2100%CSCS=Cexp[c1S]C02-4C0c0C002-3S0FSCSESES2-4S0ESES=FSCS2-5ISISFLSS0100%0SLS100%LS2-12-2bF2F(S)F1C(S)F(S)E(S)C2C1SuC(S)S0SLS0SS0S0+S100%0aS1S0S2100%SS5()12362-5φλαθ−=)(sds2-6dsθsλαφ2-6ϕλβθ)(sss=2-72-5IIIIIIIVVt7ssθsλβϕ2-7dsθ=ssθ*sλ*sθ*sλ*sθ2-82-92-sλ*sλ*sθ1sθ2-82-62-71dsθ1ssθsλsλ810*shθ=*slθ*shλ*slλ2-112-122-131sθ1sθ0sθ1Sλ1Sλ0Sλsλsλ*shλ*slλ*shθ1sθ*slθ1sθ2-92-10sλsλ0SS0SD1SS1SD1sθ1sθ2-112-12sλ0Sλ1Sλ1sθ0sθ1sθ2-139gametheory“game1928·1.2.33.ENR=ETR-ETC2-8ENRexpectnetrevenueETRexpecttotalrevenueETCexpecttotalcost10pPCOCICCE×++=)(2-9ICOCPCp2-82-9a.const.)(=BE)(CE,)(PBEb.)(CE)(PBE0c.const.=pPC)(CE,)(PBE)(PBE)(BE)(CE()——()111234567()1252-141(A)(B)(C)(D)M2MABCD2-101%100×=MAJA2-11JA100AMD02%100×=MBJB2-122-14133%100×=MCJC2-134%100×=MDJD2-14JX3ABCDA+B+CDDABCABCBS2-15BS2-21S0Bmin14ES2-4S0EmaxS0dESdS02-151ab232-4SS1SS1S2S0SS21C(S)B(S)B00S0100%2-15L(S)152SIRDj=PiLiRi/Cj2-16SIRDjjPiiLiiRiiCjjPiLiRiPiLiCjSIRD1(Utility)231612C1C2C3U(C1)=U(C2)U(C2)=U(C3)U(C1)=U(C3)U(C1)U(C2)U(C2)U(C3)U(C1)U(C3)3C1C2C1C2U(C1)U(C2)C1C2U(C1)=U(C2)C1C2U(C1)U(C2)U(Ci)Ci411•••••(1)(2)(3)(4)13-12212313-1323123124123123121235456733-23-33-43-511—3-26=100%2=100%=+++3=100%4=100%5=100%3-376=+=+++++++=100%7=++=100%8=100%9=100%10=100%11=100%12=−100%13=−100%14=−100%15=100%281=10002=/3=/4=/5=/6=/7=/8=/13-491=100%2=100%3=100%4=100%5=100%6()=1()100%212=/3=/4=100%5=100%6()=)8()(××1000107=/8=/11=/2=/3=/3-5114=/5=6=/21=/2=/3=/4=/5=/6=/7=−100%8=−100%9=−100%1210=−100%11=K/J=K/J12KJ/12=J/K13=∑=tiiKJ1Jii/t131ValueEngineeringVEVaLueAnalysisVASVE12LifeCycleCost3VV1F/C=V22F/C=V3F/C=V4F/C=V5F/C=V112345672(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)3(8)910111213SVE1234V=F/C4SVESVE1234V=F/CV1FC2CF3CF4FC5FC12534567891011SVE12361212312ABC3412345767812F0F11F12F13F21F22F23F24F25F26F31F32F33F34F35F364-8834-812SVE34-79/CC4-3C1C2C34-3F1F2F3F4140100401508040301307060803050CC1C2C3C450013020080904-3F1023404-84-8401.67119058.782.311.51.5355244.510.18.32.6955644.135.226.92.1050449.015.26.01.1726728.35.82.62.3012214.911.63.311.4631912401605911VVV8.75.113.827.581190=++=++==CCCCFV=7.81.04-84-94-9V7.808.785.247.187.284.094-91VV=CF12V=F/CV=F/CV1FC2CF3CF4FC5FCABC/C17(CardonalUtility)2(OrdinalUtility)