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20111()No.1,2011116JOURNALOFHARBINUNIVERSITYOFCOMMERCESerialNo.116[]2010-10-15[],,(,710129)[]从影响资本结构的因素着手,借助SPSS软件,运用主成分分析方法与逐步多元线性回归分析法,对我国机械设备仪表行业上市公司的资本结构进行实证研究结果表明:公司规模成长能力所得税等因素对资本结构有负效应;公司的盈利能力营运能力非债务税盾收益现金流短期偿债能力等影响因素对资本结构有正效应;而资产结构对资本结构没有显著效应[]资本结构;主成分分析;多元线性回归分析;实证分析[]F235.5[]A[]1671-7112(2011)01-0072-09TheEmpiricalAnalyzingonChineseManufacturingSectorListedCompaniesSUHong,ZHUANGYu,JIMei-ru(SchoolofManagement,NorthwesternPolytechnicalUniversity,Xian710129,China)Abstract:ThisarticlestartsfromtheinfluentialfactorsofthecapitalstructureandanalysisempiricallythecapitalstructureforListedCorporationsofChinesemanufacturingsector,byadoptingPrincipalComponentAnalysisandstepwiseregressionanalysisandusingtheSPSSsoftware.TheEmpir-icalresultrevealsthat:sizefactors,growthfactorsandcorporateincometaxfactorshavethesignificantnegativeeffect.Whileotherfactorsincludingprofitfactors,non-debttaxshieldfactors,revenuecashflowfactors,short-termliquidityfactors,operatingcapacityfactorsetchavethesignif-icantpositiveeffect.assetsstructuredonothavetheobviousinfluenceoncapitalstructure.Keywords:capitalstructure;principalcomponentanalysis;multiplelinearregressionanalysis;empiricalanalysis,,,,,,,TitmanWesseles(1988)[1],;;;;;Esperanca(2003)[2],,Eriotis(2007)[3],GrossmanHart(1982)[4],,,(1996)[5],,19981996A35,,,(1999)[6],,72(1999),19951997,,,,(2000)[7],19951997221,,:,(2000)[8],,,(一)相关概念,:,;,(二)研究样本的来源与选择,A2006,:(1)2003,,;(2)2006STPT;(3)BH(三)研究框架与步骤;,SPSS;,(一)变量设计,,(/),,(),:(/)(/),(1)1y1/y2/y3/,16(2)(二)信度与效度分析,Cronbachs(CompositeReliability,CR)Cronbachs1,,0.7,;0.35~0.7,;035(Gilford,1954)Nunnally(1978),,Cronbachs0.6,73,,:2x1LN()x2LN()x3100%x4100%x5100%x6/x7/x8/x9/x10/x11/x12/x13()/x14/x15/x16/SPSS15.0,3,:16Cronbachs0.715,0.7,,,3(ReliabilityStatistics)CronbachsAlphaNofItems.71516,,4:3Cronbachs0.706,0.70,,4(ReliabilityStatistics)CronbachsAlphaNofItems.7063,(contentvalidity)(structuralvalidity),,,,KMOBaetlett,,:KMO0.9,;0.8~0.9;0.7~0.8;0.6~0.7Baetlett0.01,74()20111JournalofHarbinUniversityofCommerceNo.1,2011,,16KMOBartlett5,,KMO0.718,Bartlett0.000,KaiserKMO165KMOandBartlettsTestKaiser-Meyer-OlkinMeasureofSamplingAdequacy..718Approx.Chi-Square1.687E3BartlettsTestofSphericitydf120Sig..000SPSS,SPSS,AnalyzeDataReductionFactor,5:0.05,1.687E3,0,,,,KMO0.718,(三)因子分析6(TotalVarianceExplained)ComponentInitialEigenvaluesExtractionSumsofSquaredLoadingsRotationSumsofSquaredLoadingsTotal%ofVarianceCumulative%Total%ofVarianceCumulative%Total%ofVarianceCumulative%12.99118.69118.6912.99118.69118.6912.03412.71012.71022.40215.01333.7042.40215.01333.7042.03212.69925.40932.06912.93246.6362.06912.93246.6362.00412.52737.93641.81811.36357.9991.81811.36357.9991.72610.78648.72251.4839.26767.2661.4839.26767.2661.5609.74858.47161.0716.69473.9601.0716.69473.9601.3488.42366.8937.8835.51879.4788.7584.73884.2169.6063.78588.00210.5343.33791.33811.4672.91794.25512.3181.98996.24413.2791.74397.98714.2641.65399.64015.047.29399.93216.011.068100.000:85%16:16,l6,73.960%675,,:85%,91688%,,977(RotatedComponentMatrixa)Component123456789Zscore:x1.929.202.03-.021.081-.008-.075-.128-.091Zscore:x2.851.110.096.014.441.085-.055-.104-.066Zscore:x3.307.840-.043-.052-.115-.030.104.041-.021Zscore:x4-.269.790.127.093.062.042-.115-.282-.172Zscore:x5.295.783-.018-.122.034.136.020.148.212Zscore:x6-.123.014.072-.062-.071-.062-.024-.179.934Zscore:x7.072.115.098-.063.063.913-.116.118-.064Zscore:x8-.147-.067-.058-.021-.727.541-.098.078.007Zscore:x9.236-.086.883-.003.023.212.004-.025-.071Zscore:x10.035.065.860.080.108.099-.002.011.083Zscore:x11.013-.042.102.938.028-.005-.265.075-.060Zscore:x12-.038-.038.133.886-.019-.083.406.011-.022Zscore:x13-.020-.008-.030.097.809-.143.088-.138.041Zscore:x14-.095.028.129.018.052-.125.952-.122-.021Zscore:x15-.258-.017.033.090-.080.139-.170.843-.220Zscore:x16.132-.039.399.043-.019.269.102.718-.100FACFAC1x1,x2,0.9290.851,FAC1;FAC2x3,x4,x5,0.8400.7900.783,FAC2;FAC3x9,x10,0.8830.860,FAC3;FAC4x11,x12,0.9380.886,FAC4;FAC5x8,x13,-0.7270.809,FAC5;FAC6x7,x8,0.9130.541,FAC6;FAC7x14,0.952,FAC7;FAC8x15,x16,0.8430.718,FAC8;FAC9x6,0.934,FAC9(四)研究假设:,,,;,,,,,,:,,,:,,,:,,,:76()20111JournalofHarbinUniversityofCommerceNo.1,2011,,,,,:,1963,,,,:,,,,:,,:,,,,(一)回归方程的构建,:Y=+1FAC1+2FAC2++jFACj+9FAC9+:Y;;j;FACj;(二)资本结构影响因素的主成分得分179200616,985%,,9,()88123456789Zscore:LN.820-.124-.055-.165.079.156.402-.173-.044Zscore:LN.890.006-.144-.339-.002.099.165.000.011Zscore:.565-.237.258.523.279-.120.069-.092.108Zscore:.289-.029.237.561.292-.050-.451.035-.320Zscore:.591-.249.342.417.106-.002-.041.064.287Zscore:-.129-.107-.188.416-.381.591-.055.272.361Zscore:.234.048.698-.238-.151-.030.008.509-.130Zscore:-.418-.079.648.089-.037.133.419.172-.185Zscore:.536.100-.232-.511-.099-.143-.383.318.061Zscore:.289.668.157.176-.390.121-.127-.092-.058Zscore:-.036.596.019-.154.652.401-.051.056.005Zscore:-.080.698-.264.156.533-.002.199.245.085Zscore:.140.637-.063.292-.341.106-.035-.214-.157Zscore:.002.270-.444.421-.121-.600.257.273.061Zscore:-.297.221.589-.265.177-.258-.146-.215.412Zscore:.205.649.409-.055-.315-.138.107-