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上海交通大学硕士学位论文供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究姓名：徐树彬申请学位级别：硕士专业：机械工程（工业工程）指导教师：陈健元;王炎20030601-I-1234-II-19523-III-申请上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文：供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究STUDYOFINVENTORYCONTROLPOLICYINSUPPLYCHAINMANAGEMENTMODEABSTRACTInthisdissertation,theinventorycontrolpolicyinsupplychainmodeisstudied.First,somefundamentaltheoriesonsupplychainmanagementandinventorycontrolareintroduced,includingtheconceptofsupplychainanditsstructuralmodels,theconceptofsupplychainmanagementandsomebasicinventorycontrolmodels.Specialattentionispaidtotheanalysisoftheimportantroleofinventorycontrolinsupplychainmanagement.Then,thecurrentinventorycontrolprocessofAnnHuacompanyisanalyzed.Somemainproblemsoninventorycontrolarepointedout,including:1)inaccuratedemandforecastinginformation.Theuncertaintyofdemandforecastingisoneofthereasonsthatcausethecomplicacyofsupplychainmanagement,anditalsoresultsinthedifficultyofinventorycontrol.2)lackofquickandeffectiveinformationflowamongthe-IV-申请上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文：供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究membersofsupplychain.Thedemandforecastinginformation,inventoryinformationandproductioninformationarenotadequatelysharedbythemembersofsupplychain.AnnHuacannotfullyunderstandtheactualdemandofendusers.Itusuallygetsthedelayedanddistorteddemandinformation.3)TheinventorycontrolpolicyofAnnHuaisprovincial.AnnHuacurrentlytakesinventoryturnoverasitsmainindexofperformancemeasurement.Duetoitsbiasedfocusoninventoryturnover,AnnHuaoftenrunsoutofrawmaterial,affectingthesmoothnessofproduction,fulfillmentofcustomerordersandcustomerservicelevel.4)lackofeffectivecooperationamongsupplychainmembers.Everymemberofthesupplychainhasitsownorganizationobjectiveandperformancemeasurementsystem.Whenthemembersofthesupplychainmakeorderandinventorydecisionstheyoftenconsidermorebenefitsoftheirowncompanies.Theyseldomconsidertheimpactoftheirdecisionsonothermembers.Therelacksnecessarycooperationandcoordinationamongdifferentcompaniesinthesupplychain.WithregardtotheproblemsnowAnnHuaisfacingininventorycontrol,newinventorycontrolpolicyinsupplychainmanagementmodeisproposed,including:1)Setupasetofaccurateandeffectivedemandforecastingmethodtoimprovetheaccuracyofdemandforecasting.HistoricalcustomerdemanddataofAnnHuaarecollected.AccordingtothestatusquoofAnnHua,Auto-regressiveintegratedmovingaverage-V-申请上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文：供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究(ARIMA)timeseriesprocessisadoptedtobuildthemathematicalmodelfordemandforecasting.Minimummeansquareerrorforecastingisprovidedforfuturedemand.Foreachdemandforecastingvalue,probabilitylimitswith95%confidencearepresented.2)Setupasetofperformancemeasurementsystemforinventorycontrolthatreflectstheideaofsupplychainmanagement.Inventorycontrolbalancedscorecardisproposedastheperformancemeasurementsystemforinventorycontrol.Theperformanceofinventorycontrolissystematicallymeasuredbyinventorycontrolbalancedscorecardfromfouraspectsincludingcustomerperspective,internalbusinessperspective,futuredevelopmentperspectiveandfinancialperspective.3)Basedontherelativelyaccuratedemandforecastingmodelandinventorycontrolbalancedscorecard,inventorycontrolpolicyinsupplychainmanagementmodeisestablished:onthepremiseoffulfillingthepredeterminedcustomerservicelevel,minimizetheinventorylevel.TheARIMAtimeseriesmodelsforinventoryandorderofAnnHuaaregiven.ThereorderpointandreorderquantityunderpredeterminedcustomerservicelevelforAnnHuaiscalculated.Basedonthisinventorycontrolpolicy,AnnHuacanensureitspredeterminedcustomerservicelevel,whileatthesametimekeepsitsinventorylevelminimum.Besides,furtherdiscussionismaderegardingtheinformationsharingandenforcementofstrategicpartnershipamongthemembersofthesupplychain.-VI-申请上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文：供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究Atlast,theresultafterAnnHuaimplementingthenewinventorycontrolpolicyisanalyzed.AnnHuaachievesobviousbenefitsafterimplementingtheinventorycontrolpolicyinsupplychainmode:Itreducesinventorylevelandimprovesinventoryturnoverwhileensuringpredeterminedcustomerservicelevel.Inthemeantime,otherindexesofinventorycontrolbalancedscorecardsuchasorderfulfillmentrate,ontimedeliveryrate,inventoryrecorderroranddemandforecastingerrorareimprovedsignificantly.KEYWORDS:inventorycontrol,supplychainmanagement,demandforecasting,ARIMA,performancemeasurement-VII-申请上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文供应链管理模式下的库存控制策略研究-1-引言在过去的若干年中制造资源计划准时制生产精益生产等管理模式在企业中的运用已经使许多企业降低了制造成本提高了经济效益进入二十一世纪以后随着科技的进步和生产力的发展客户的需求不断提高企业之间的竞争更加激烈再加上企业所处的外部环境也发生了很大的变化使得整个市场的不确定性大大增加企业面临的是一个复杂多变且很难预测的买方市场在这种情况下原有的管理模式已逐渐显示出它们自身的局限性它们仅着眼于企业内部资源的有效配置和合理利用忽视了企业的外部资源已不能完全适应新的竞争形势要求为了获得竞争优势企业需要引入供应链管理这种先进的管理模式来管理自己的运作据统计通过实施供应链管理可以使企业的总成本降低10%准时交货率提高15%以上订货生产周期时间缩短25%35%企业订货供应链上的节点企业生产率提高10%以上[1]因而供应链管理也被称为企业新的利润源泉库存管理是供应链管理的重要内容库存控制策略对企业的运作水平有很大的影响传统的库存控制策略侧重于优化单一的库存成本较少考虑其它方面比如对客户服务水平的影响和供应链上其它节点企业的影响而供应链的库存管理不是简单的需求预测与订货补给而是要通过库存管理来获得客户服务水平与利润的优化其内容包括用建模技术来提高需求预测的准确性决定订货量时考虑对供应链其它节点的影响满足一定的服务水平的同时降低库存水平和成本0.1论文背景安华医疗器械有限公司以下简称安华公司生产的一种一次性医疗器械其销售对象为各医院所需的原材料全部需要进口在国内进行组装和测试原材料订货的提前期为四个星期产品通过零售商销售给最终用户零售商提供给安华公司需求预测数据需求预测数据很不准确不准确的需求预测数据一方面使企业很难了解客户的真正需求也就谈不上满足客户的需求另一方面不准确的需求预测数据也使企业很难控制自己的库存安华公司目前采用库存周转率作为库存管理的主要绩效评价指标由于片面地强调降低库存对客户服务水平重视不够造成这种现象的原因在于目前的库存控制策略没