世界加工番茄生产和销售状况pdf13

July2002WorldHorticulturalTrade&U.S.ExportOpportunities18ProcessedTomatoProductsSituationandOutlookinSelectedCountriesGLOBALPRODUCTION&TRADEWorldproductionoftomatoesforprocessingisexpectedtoreach22.3milliontonsin2002/03,up9percentfromthepreviousyear.TheUnitedStatesproducesapproximately46percentofallthetomatoesforprocessingproducedworldwide.Thetopfourproducersin2001/02aretheUnitedStates(10.1milliontons),Italy(4.7milliontons),Spain(1.45milliontons)andTurkey(1.45milliontons).OtherkeyproducersincludeBrazil,Portugal,andChile.WorldProductionofTomatoesforProcessing0246810121999200020012002U.S.ItalySpainTurkeyBrazilOtherSource:USDA/FASAgriculturalAttachéReportsMillionMTProductionoftomatoesforprocessingin11majorproducingcountriesin2002isforecastat22.3milliontons,up9percentfrom2001.Theincreasewasattributedmainlytoa22-percentincreaseinU.S.outputaswellasincreasesinTurkey(up12percent)andPortugal(up6percent).Productionoftomatopasteinselectedcountries,excludingtheUnitedStates,in2002/03isforecastat1.35milliontons,unchangedfromlastyear,duemostlytocontinuedabundantsuppliesandlowerprices.Productionofcannedtomatopackinselectedcountriesin2002/03isforecastat2milliontons,down2percentfromlastyear,duetoanexpecteddropinproductioninbothItalyandGreece.Duringthissameperiod,exportsoftomatopastefromselectedcountriesareforecastat928,000tons,up8percentfrom2001/02,whileexportsofcannedtomatopackareforecastat1.01milliontons,up2percentfrom2001/02.July2002WorldHorticulturalTrade&U.S.ExportOpportunities19Productionofcannedtomatopackinselectedcountriesin2002/03isforecastat2milliontons,down2percentfromlastyear,duetoanexpecteddropinproductioninbothItalyandGreece.Duringthissameperiod,exportsoftomatopastefromselectedcountriesareforecastat928,000tons,up8percentfrom2001/02,whileexportsofcannedtomatopackareforecastat1.01milliontons,up2percentfrom2001/02.TopTomatoPasteExporters01002003004005006007008009001,0002000/012001/022002/03ItalyGreecePortugalU.S.ChileSpain(000)MTItalyDominatestheWorldCannedTomatoesExportMarket010020030040050060070080090010002000/012001/022002/03ItalyU.S.SpainGreeceExportsofCannedTomatoes(000)MTWesternHemisphereUnitedStatesProductionofprocessingtomatoesundercontractin2002isestimatedat10.1milliontons,up22percentfrom2001.Theincreaseinoutputisduemainlytoamajorincreaseinareaplantedcausedbysmallercarryoverofstocksandhigherwholesalepricesfortomatoproductsduringthemarketingyear.ThebulkofU.S.tomatoesforprocessingarefortomatopasteoutput.U.S.ContributiontoWorldProductionofProcessedTomatoProducts0510152025301998/991999/002000/012001/022002/03WorldUnitedStatesMillionMTSource:USDAAgriculturalAttachéReportsJuly2002WorldHorticulturalTrade&U.S.ExportOpportunities20Californiaaccountsforabout95percentoftheU.S.processingtomatocrop.AsofMay15,California’stomatoprocessorsreportedtheyhaveorwillhavecontractsfor9.53milliontonsofprocessingtomatoesfor2002.Thisproductionis23percentmorethanthecontractedproductionoflastyear.Plantedareaforcontractedproductionisexpectedtorise11percentfromlastyearto114,121hectares.Duetoexcellentweatherconditions,processorsareexpectingahighyieldingcrop.U.S.ExportsofProcessedTomatoProducts0204060801001201401601997/981998/991999/002000/01CannedTomatoesKetchupTomatoPasteTomatoSauceSource:U.S.CensusBureau(000)MTU.S.ImportsofProcessedTomatoProducts010203040506070801997/981998/991999/002000/01CannedTomatoesKetchupTomatoPasteTomatoSauce(000)MTMexicoProductionoftomatoesforprocessingin2002isforecastat96,000tons,down30percentfromanearlierforecast,mainlyduetoareductioninplantedarea.Thereductionisattributedtolessutilizationfromtheprocessingindustry,decreasedinternationaldemand,andlowerworldprices.TomatopasteproductioninMexicoin2002/03(MarchtoFebruary)isforecastat11,000tons,down22percentfromtherevisedvolumein2001.Asinpreviousyears,worldsuppliescontinuetobeveryhighandcostsofproductioncontinuestorise.IndustryexpertsclaimthatimportingtomatopastefromtheUnitedStates,China,andChileislessexpensivethanproducinginMexico,thusforcingMexicancompaniestoreduceproduction.Thesituationhasbecomesocriticalthatsomecompanieshavecompletelystoppedproductionandimportationoftomatopasteforprocessingintootherproducts.Mexico’spossibilitiesofincreasingitstomatopasteexportshavedwindledastheUnitedStateshasincreasedtomatopasteexports.Inaddition,China’saccesstotheinternationalmarket,withhighlevelsofproduction,hasloweredinternationalprices.Astheindustryfindsthatitismoreprofitabletoimporttomatopaste,exportsfor2002areforecasttodecreasefurther.ThemainmarketsforMexicantomatopastearestilltheUnitedStatesandSouthAmerica.Tomatopasteimportsfor2002areexpectedtoincreasetomeettheexpecteddemandfromthedomesticmarket,astheindustryfacesadecreaseinproductionandinternationalpricesremainlow.July2002WorldHorticulturalTrade&U.S.ExportOpportunities21BrazilProductionoftomatoesforprocessingin2002isforecastat1.27milliontons,up2percentfromtherevisedlevelinthepreviousyear.Salesandassociatedpricesofthe2001cropwereconsiderablybetterthanduringthepreviousyear,therebyencouragingproducerstoincreaseacreageandpr