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中国年度生产法和收入法GDP核算China’sAnnualGDPAccountbyProductionandIncomeApproaches张冬佑国家统计局国民经济核算司2010年3月16日ZhangDongyouDepartmentofNationalAccount,NBS16thMarch,2010主要内容MainContents一、产业部门分类ClassificationofIndustrialSectors二、资料来源DataSource三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法SpecificEstimationMethodofIndustrialValue-added四、近期所做的主要改进majorimprovementstobemade五、面临的挑战Challenges一、产业部门分类Classificationofindustrialsectors第一级分类直接采用国家统计局2003年制定的《三次产业划分规定》，但在第三产业中剔除国际组织部分。Thefirstlevelclassificationdirectlyappliesthe“RegulationonClassificationofThreeSectors”promulgatedbyNBSin2003,buteliminatingtheinternationalpartinthethirdsector.第二级分类基本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的门类。ThesecondlevelclassificationbasicallyappliestheclasscategoriesinthenewClassificationofNationalEconomicIndustries.产业部门分类Classificationofindustrialsectors第三级分类基本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的大类，房地产业分到中类行业，并增加了居民自有住房服务业。ThethirdlevelclassificationbasicallyappliesthesectioninthenewClassificationofNationalEconomicIndustries,puttingrealestatesectoringroupsectorsandaddingresidentself-ownedhousingservice.第四级分类和第三级分类基本一致，同时根据多年来GDP核算数据的实际需求情况，并参照其他国家的分类情况，对采矿业、制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业进行了细化Thefourthlevelclassificationandthirdlevelclassificationarebasicallyconsistent,andatthesametime,specifyingthemining,manufacturing,andtheproductionandsupplyofelectricity,gasandwaterbyreferringtotheclassificationpracticeofothercountries.年度GDP核算，按94个行业。AnnualGDPaccount,by94sectors.季度GDP核算，按14个行业。QuarterlyGDPaccount,by14sectors.一、产业部门分类（续）Classificationofindustrialsectors(cont.)二、资料来源Datasource国家统计调查数据:普查数据，全面调查数据，抽样调查数据；Nationalstatisticalsurveydata:censusdata,comprehensivesurveydata,samplesurveydata;部门财务数据：主要指2008年建立的18个部门服务业财务状况报表；Financialdataofadministrativedepartment:mainlyreferstothefinancialstatementsof18servicesectorsestablishedin2008;部门行政记录：财政数据，税务数据，中国人民银行、保监会、证监会数据，工商局数据，民政部数据等。Administrativerecordofthesectors:financialdata,taxdata,dataofPeople'sBankofChina,InsuranceRegulatoryCommitteeandSecuritiesRegulatoryCommittee,ofIndustrialandCommercialAdministration,andoftheMinistryofCivilAffairs.三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法Specificestimationmethodofindustrialvalue-addedaccount生产法Productionapproach:4个行业：农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业Fourindustries:agriculture,forestry,animalhusbandry,andfishing生产法和收入法混合combinationofproductionapproachandincomeapproach：工业中的39个行业39industrialindustries收入法Incomeapproach:其余51个行业other51industries三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法Specificestimationmethodofindustrialvalue-addedaccount季度GDPQuarterlyGDP现价核算Currentpriceaccount增加值率法：增加值＝总产出×增加值率主要指标外推法：增加值＝上年同期增加值×相关指标速度Methodofvalue-addedrate:value-added=totaloutput×value-addedrateExtrapolationmethodofmajorindicators:value-added=value-addedofthesameperiodoflastyear×thegrowthrateofrelevantindicators不变价核算Constantpriceaccount价格指数缩减和物量外推Priceindexdeflationandvolumeextrapolation三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法(续)Specificestimationmethodofindustrialvalue-addedaccount(cont.)年度核算AnnualAccount（一）直接计算法Directcalculationmethod利用基础资料直接计算该行业的总产出和增加值。Directlycalculatingthetotaloutputandvalue-addedbybasicmaterial.在农业、工业、铁路运输业、邮政业、金融业、社会福利业等51个行业采用直接计算法，占94个行业的55％，占GDP的63％。Applyingdirectcalculationmethodinthe51sectorsincludingagriculture,industry,railwaytransportation,postservice,finance,andsocialwelfare,taking55%inthe94sectorsand63%inGDP.三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法(续)Specificestimationmethodofindustrialvalue-addedaccount(cont.)（二）增加值外扩法Themethodofvalue-addedextrapolation首先利用基础资料计算增加值，然后利用基准年度（普查年度）基础资料计算的增加值占该行业增加值的比重进行外扩，得到该行业的增加值。Firstofall,thebasicdataisusedtocalculatevalue-added,andthentheratioofvalue-addedgetfromthebasicdataofbasicyear(censusyear)tothevalue-addedofthewholesectorisappliedtoextrapolatetogetthevalue-addedofthesector.在建筑业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业等31个行业采用增加值外扩法，占94个行业的33％，占GDP的33％Thevalue-addedextrapolationmethodisappliedin31sectorsincludingarchitecture,retailandwholesale,andaccommodationandcatering.三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法(续)Specificestimationmethodofindustrialvalue-addedaccount(cont.)（三）相关指标推算法Estimationofrelevantindicators以基准年度（普查年度）总产出或增加值为基础，利用能够反映行业发展的一些指标的发展速度，做为总产出或增加值的发展速度，进行外推，得到该行业增加值。Takingthetotaloutputandvalue-addedofbasicyear(censusyear)asthebasis,andapplyingthegrowthrateoftheindicatorsreflectingthedevelopmentoftheindustriesasthegrowthrateoftotaloutputandvalue-added,toextrapolateandgetthevalue-addedoftheindustry.仓储业、计算机服务业、居民服务业等11个行业采用相关指标推算法，占94个行业的12％，占GDP的4％Theestimationmethodofrelevantindicatorsisappliedinthe11sectorsincludingstorage,computerserviceandresidentservice,taking12%inthe94sectorsand4%inGDP.四、近期所做的主要改进Improvementstobemade（一）个体经营户增加值核算方法发生变化Changeshavebeentakenplaceintheaccountmethodofthevalue-addedofself-employed个体经营户增加值根据税收资料和清查户数间接推算。IndirectEstimationismadetothevalue-addedofself-employedaccordingtothetaxdataandthenumberofindividualbusiness.基本方法是：首先计算每个行业的户均税收额，然后利用各行业普查户数乘以户均税收额得到每个行业的税收收入，再除以这个行业的规定税率得到总产出，最后利用相关行业小规模企业的增加值率计算得到增加值。Basicmethod:First,theaverageindividualbusinesstaxrevenueofeachsectoriscalculated,andthenthetaxrevenueofeachindustryisgetbytheequationofnumberofcensushouseholdsmultipliedbyaverageindividualbusinesstaxrevenue,andafterthatthetotaloutputisgetbybeingdividedbytheregulatedtaxrate,andatlast,thevalue