统计与真理：怎样运用偶然性-书评

,,(),R&D,,,2%,20%(15%)8%(6%),50031,:C1R1ABSTRACTInSeptember2005,wewillcelebrateDr.C.R.Raos85thbirthday,Dr.Raoisoneofthemostfamousstatisticiansinourtime.Anditisthe120thanniversaryoftheInternationalStatisticalInstitute(ISI)inJune2005.ForthesetwocelebrationsthispaperwilllistthemaincontributionsofDr.Raotothestatisticaldevelopment.Andthen,basedonthelearningfromnumbers,thepaperwillmainlyfocusontheideasthatemphasizedbyDr.C.R.RaoinhisbookStatisticsandTruth:PuttingChancetoWorkstatistics:aninevitableinstrumentinsearchoftruth.:;;199719891998,C1R1Rao,,,[2],,,,C1R1(C1R1Rao)(),C1R1,,,C1R1,19209101940,1943,R1A1(Fisher),19487720055No.52005StatisticalResearch©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[1]D.J.StoreyandB.S.Tether.Newtechnology2basedfirmsintheEuropeanunion:anintroduction.ResearchPolicy,1998,Vol.26,No.9.[2]B.S.TetherandD.J.Storegy.SmallerfirmsandEuropeshightechnologysectors:aframeworkforanalysisandsomestatisticalevidence,ResearchPolicy,1998,Vol.26,No.9.[3]MarkS.Freel,Towardsanevolutionarytheoryofsmallfirmgrowth,JournalofEnterprisingCulture,2000Vol.8,No.4.[4]...,2002.[5]..,2001,3.[6]..,2000.[7]..1999726.[8]..2003219.,,,,,2(Cramer2Rao)19431945,C1R114,350,1627,31,C1R1102002C1R1,,,,,,C1R1,C1R11945,2785C1R1Eberly,C1R1,1987,C1R11989,,(ISI)(DavidCoxSir):,20037,,,,,,,,20047,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,C1R1,,:,,2000;(ISI)12087©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,:,:,,,;,,,:,,,,,,:,,:,,,,,,::,,,:30%;40:,,10;,5??,,,(),,,,,:,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,50,,,?,,,,,,97::C1R1©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,19851114,(GaryTaylor),429,?ThistedEfron(1987),,,:,,,,,,,:,,,,,,:,,:+=/,:,,,,(),(),,,,,,,,:;,C1R1:,,,,,:,,,,,,,:,,,,21,,,,,,[1]C1R1....2004.[2]...2004.6.5560.[3]...2000.[4]J1L1...1987.[5]...2002.[6]N.Krishnankutty,PuttingChancetoWork,ABiographyofC.R.Rao,DialoguePress,USA,1996.,,54,,:,,,28,,:,08©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.