华中科技大学博士学位论文基于商圈理论的城市加油站竞争选址研究姓名:田中山申请学位级别:博士专业:企业管理指导教师:王韬2010-04华中科技大学博士学位论文I摘要我国加入世贸组织后,中国石化、中国石油、外资及民营企业均加大了对加油站的投资力度,终端零售市场竞争不断加剧。由于成品油零售网点具有“地利性”,加油站的选址质量直接决定了其经营水平,传统加油站选址局限于成品油零售业务本身,忽视了商圈因素的影响,决策方法缺乏系统性和科学性,导致加油站布局不合理,经营效益相对较低,加油站非油品业务发展受限。为改进和完善传统的加油站选址方法,本论文基于商圈理论对加油站的竞争选址进行研究,以达到优化加油站布局、均衡发展油品与非油品业务的目的。本论文的研究分析主要从以下几个方面展开:第一,简要概述了国内加油站选址及经营的现状和存在的问题,对经典选址理论与商圈理论进行了回顾,评析了商圈分析方法、定量评价模型。并据此指出,经典选址模型无法满足加油站综合业务发展的需要,应在城市加油站选址中充分考虑商圈因素,对加油站目标商圈进行评估分析。第二,基于商圈承载力分析,以商圈内交通状况、人口统计状况、竞争状况和市场吸引力状况指标为参数,结合加油站经营的特性,创新性地提出了评价待建加油站目标商圈承载力的“3C+E”模型,从宏观层面,确定适宜加油站选址的目标商圈。并以郑州花园路商圈和碧沙岗商圈为研究样本,对待建加油站目标商圈的承载力进行实证研究,得出了花园路商圈适合建设加油站的结论。第三,从商圈内部微观选址入手,综合考虑商圈内部加油量、非油品需求、城市规划及安全环保等因素,基于加油站吸引力函数、市场份额平衡区间函数、需求点需求量评估函数及加油站市场份额评估函数,构造了竞争条件下的加油站优化选址HNSYJX模型,从微观层面,形成了系统的基于商圈理论的加油站竞争选址方法。并以花园路商圈为实证研究对象,运用竞争选址模型,遴选出了商圈内部新建加油站的昀优位置。第四,引入城市商圈土地价值因素、区域网络整体效益指标和不确定性分析方华中科技大学博士学位论文II法,对传统的加油站投资项目评估方法进行了改进,创建了加油站投资效益的评价模型。并以花园路商圈内的经三路加油站为实证研究对象,对该投资项目进行效益后评估,对选址方法的实用性和有效性进行了检验,证明了基于商圈理论的加油站竞争选址方法的合理性与科学性。昀后,总结了基于商圈理论的加油站竞争选址方法的创新和不足,并提出可以延伸的研究方向。整篇论文按照从商圈评估到商圈内部加油站布局决策,再到微观竞争性选址的逻辑顺序进行研究,创新性地将商圈理论与微观竞争选址理论相融合,形成了一套适用于加油站综合经营的科学选址方法,并从实证研究角度进行了验证,进一步丰富了国内加油站选址理论与方法,对促进国内加油站选址决策的优化和完善具有一定的借鉴与指导意义。关键词:商圈理论加油站选址模型效益评估华中科技大学博士学位论文IIIAbstractSinceChinajoinedWTO,Sinopec,PetroChina,overseaoilcompaniesandprivateenterprisesallhavebeenincreasinginvestmentinbuildingnewpetrolservicestations,whichrapidlydrovethecompetitionmuchmoreintensifiedindomesticoilretailmarket.Duetotheoildistributionbranchesobtainthefeatureof“favorablegeographicalposition”,thelocationofpetrolservicestationswilldirectlydeterminethemanagementleveloftheirown.Becauseofthefocusonlyonrefinedoilretailbusinessandtheneglectofbusinessareafactors,traditionallocationmodels,lackingsystematicnessandscientificalness,willbringoutanunreasonableretailnetworklayoutwithlowoperatingefficiencyandarestrictiononthedevelopmentofthenon-oilbusiness.Toimproveandperfecttraditionallocationmodels,thisdissatationmadeastudyoncompetitivelocationtoexecutesunchpurposesthatoptimizethepetrolservicestationlocationandbalancethedevelopmentofoilandthenon-oilbusiness.Thestudyandanalysisinthisdissertationwereconductedmainlyformthefollowingaspets:Firstly,thisdissertationoverviewedthecurrentstatusandproblemsinthelocationandoperationofthedomesticpetrolservicestations,reviewedtheclassictheoriesoflocationandbusinessarea,andthenmadeanevaluationoftheanalyticalmethodandquantitativeassessmentmodelforbusinessarea.Accordingly,thisdissertationarguesthattheclassicallocationmodelswouldhardlysatisfythedemandforintegratedservicedevelopmentinpetrolservicestation,anditshouldbenecessarytotakebusinessareafactorsintoaccountandmakeanevaluationofthetargetbusinessareaduringtheprocessofpetrolservicestationlocation.Secondly,basedoncarryingcapabilityanalysisofbusinessarea,thisdissertationusedtrafficstatus,populationstatistics,competition,andmarketattractivenessinbusinessareasasparameters,combinedwithspecificcharacteristicsonmanagementofpetrolservicestation,innovativelyproposeda“3C+E”modelforevaluatingthecarryingcapabilityoftargetbusinessareas,tochoosetheavailableoneforlocatingpetrolservicestation.Moreover,byselectingGardenRoadbusinessareaandBay-sidebusinessareaastheresearchexamples,thisdissertationappliedanempriticalstudyonthecarrying华中科技大学博士学位论文IVcapabilityoftargetbusinessareasforlocatingpetrolservicestation.ThenaconclusionwasdrawnfromthestudythatGardenRoadbusinessareaismoresuitableforlocatingpetrolservicestationthanBay-sidebusinessarea.Thirdly,fromthemicrocosmicpointofview,byconsideringthefuelcharge,non-oildemands,urbanplanningsafetyandenvironmentalprotectionfactorswithinthebusinessareaoverall,basedontheattractionfunctionofpetrolservicestations,marketsharebalancerangefunction,demandsassessmentfunctiononthedemandpointandpetrolservicestationmarketshareevaluationfunction,thisdissertationbuiltanoptimalcompatativelocationHNSYJXmodeltodeterminethepetrolservicestationlocationinsidethetargetbusinessarea,whichformedasystematiclocationapproachbasedonbusinessareatheory.Furthermore,bychoosingGardenRoadbusinessareaastheresearchtarget,thisdissatationappliedcompetitivelocationmodelandselectedouttheoptimallocationforpetrolservicestationwithinthebusinessarea.Fourthly,byintroducingbusinessarealandvalue,overallregionalnetworkefficiencyindexanduncertaintyanalysisapproach,thisdissertationimprovedthetraditionalapproachtoassesspetrolservicestationinvestments,andconstructedapetrolservicestationinvestmentbenefitassessmentmodel.ByselectingJansenST.petrolservicestationinsideGardenRoadbusinessareaasaresearchtarget,thisdissertationexecutedabenefit-offassessmenttoinvestmentprogramtotestthepracticabilityandeffectivenessofthelocationapproach.Theresultformthetestprovedtherationalityandscientificalnessofthecompetitivelocationmodelbasedonbusinessareatheory.Finally,thisdissertationsummarizedtheinnovationanddeficiencyofthecompetitivelocationapproachbasedonbusinessareastheory,andputforwardtheextensibledirectionofresearch.Onthewhole,thisdissertationconductedastudyinthefowlinglogica