从房地价格分离探讨地价指数之建立

1∗∗∗13.13%7.98%∗∗∗21査19942002査20011323198219944ImprovementsInternationalValuationStandardsCommitteeIVSC20032344SundermanBirch2001Gloudemans2002FeedbackModel561995Ferri1977Kazumasa200120001991査査1996timelag査565theAppraisalInstitute19992003AllocationMethod7878=×=×6109101112919217269192131491011121314281.58.528372.57.537463.56.546715283746McCainJensenMeyer20033016岀1.2.1.151682.17×h/hihhii8919248992920181217189901.2.hedonicpriceRosen1974Rosen1974Ferri1977BlackleyFollainandLee1986Thibodeau1989------------899.005.1520.8412.41182.7322934.7041362.5857987.738112.2727957.7338142.27660909.375.3720.7013.08192.6023732.3847665.0365489.347810.6627637.7745662.23732919.275.5519.8711.81282.4243938.0168859.57100086.5815513.4241435.8474164.161155929.156.9920.5912.32635.4845839.8662854.6697584.8617415.1442236.7372763.271149101.19ColwellMunneke1997log(Pi)=Ci+βXi+uiPiCiXiui2.92331==∑∑==niitioniititotttotXXYYLPI00,expexpˆˆββotttYˆotYˆioβ,itβitX1.1992191120002000SirmansMacphersonZietz20051252.19921995203.21200020004.20002000AsbereandHuffman199158AsabereandColwell1984Illinois22爲5.1992202122126.20002000ColwellMunneke1997SirmansMacphersonZietz20059223295242526multivariatetestAdj2RAICAkaikeInformationCriterionBICBayesianInformationCriterionMAEMeanAbsoluteError1.12324爲2526multivariatetest13227281.******1%5%10%β2.AICBIC3.MAEMeanAbsoluteErrorTeMAEt∑=ˆ0MAE∞teT4.DWDurbin-Watson25.COLLINT1027285.094545.087414.918410.074310.595660.074670.605100.088100.662320.004650.132920.004410.125960.004170.091190.047050.017190.105420.025780.069670.02537-0.12184-0.13643-0.12596-0.12892-0.06825-0.060140.159870.135910.141470.128030.040750.041470.001730.097950.001840.105500.001260.075240.002230.095750.002250.09721-0.00067440-0.023260.278320.335740.266500.336060.240450.29105Adj2R0.47610.53110.4902AIC-587.7397-676.2582-591.6838BIC-585.1238-673.6399-596.0486MAE84.0675.9165.40DW1.8491.7871.413COLLINT2.575932.595582.595832612602518.428.7711.9314290.47610.5311AICBICWilks'Lambda0.997948230.959485080.998865040.999950660.999839190.999287930.998703900.982779340.995787240.979049620.979060390.991029220.979567000.987832310.899230010.386718640.341414500.1826606115102.0.4902AICBIC2915MAEMAE査19953.13.137.98%30301688.11083.9111.185.99T51.6127.8445.6223.095.9913.1316.6841.9823.9845.6223.09-3.64-7.98-5.2683.9168.260421.0411.189.31054.45爲4.17370.9689923150~33103189.3.3189.9.3090.3.3190.9.3091.3.3191.9.3092.3.3192.9.305.351405.233735.530475.284615.331685.261955.253055.225680.069750.079230.055490.067890.061660.063570.064560.062710.005220.008470.003840.006580.008790.010090.006530.00898-0.02325-0.26137-0.001720.146970.240560.15247-0.066130.13662-0.06908-0.10689-0.08694-0.14783-0.12741-0.12690-0.10439-0.10164-0.028860.145530.089620.167340.084440.016080.164930.189450.234040.182820.106850.153590.148070.149430.177350.22944Adj2R0.50620.48580.33090.41960.43370.50030.42220.4830DW1.5461.7791.7781.6861.5121.5571.6901.633COLLINT1.535891.796071.564291.558201.419391.538661.664851.489623043132614226604645485636.756.299.384.952.083.533.523.10188~919~2032333432333489.3.318.8719.890.01320.61840.1020.407989.9.308.7321.260.00960.67090.10220.402690.3.319.3219.860.01920.67820.07280.356390.9.308.9120.920.01420.67770.090.37291.3.319.1919.390.01360.60610.10760.307691.9.308.7720.460.0280.60560.1530.422492.3.318.7420.930.04560.55840.1460.350492.9.308.9719.710.04620.55060.13320.373199960353689923735岀3637209191919091Kazumasa200189920.791383821岀13.13%Rosen1974GloudemansHandelWarw2002Gloudemans2002RosenGloudemans7.98%2223200112pp235-25519942002200321200019821991—pp183-24019951996--313pp55-62200020025pp9-15199483pp50-6520041995199522pp1-261992199420001pp261-2801998354pp145-19819942000Asabere.PaulK.andPFColwellPeterF.1984,“ZoningandtheValueofUrbanLand”,RealEstateIssues,9(1)22-27.AsaberePaulK.andHuffmanForrestE.1991,“ZoningandIndustrialLandValuesTheCaseofPhiladelphia”,AREUEAJournal,192154-160.24AppraisalInstitut1999,TheAppraisalofRealEstate,11thed.Chicago:AppraisalInstitute,1999BlackleyDixieM.FollainJamesR.andLeeHaeduck1986,“AnEvaluationofHedonicPriceIndexesforThirty-fourLargeSMSAs”,AREUEAJournal,142179-205.ColwellPeterF.andMunnekeHenryJ.1997,“TheStructureofUrbanLandPrice”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,41:321-336.FerriMichaelG.1977,“AnApplicationofHedonicIndexingMethodstoMonthlyChangeinHousingPrice1965-1975”,TheAmericanRealEstateandUrbanEconomicsAssociation,5455-462.GloudemansRobertJ.2002,“AnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheIncidenceofLocationonLandandBuildingValues”,LincolnInstituteofLandPolicyWorkingPaper,1-24.GloudemansRobertJ.,HandelSheldonandWarwaMichael2002,“EmpiricalEvaluationofAlternativeLandValuationModels”,LincolnInstituteofLandpolicyworkingpaper,1-37.IVSC2003,InternationalValuationStandards,SixEdition.KazumasaTakeuchi.2001,“TheDevelopmentofaLandPriceIndexBasedonAppraisalDatafortheTokyoArea”,NLIResearchInstitute,1588-19.McCainRogerA.,JensenPaul,andMeyerStephen2003,“ResearchonValuationofLandandImprovementsinPhiladelphia”,PreliminaryReportDepartmentofEconomicsandInternationalBusiness,LeBowCollegeofBusinessAdminis