货币替代的理论分析

姜波克　李心丹本文认为,货币替代会严重影响国家宏观经济的稳定和经济政策的效力、削弱政府税基、引发资本外流,对中国来说,还会减缓甚至中止人民币走向自由兑换的进程。文章对我国反货币替代政策的基本思路进行了分析,提出为了抑制货币替代,必须提高本国金融资产的实际收益率和公众对人民币的信心,必须保持宏观经济政策的一贯性和可信度。作者姜波克,1954年生,复旦大学国际金融系教授、博士生导师;李心丹,1966年生,东南大学金融系副教授。,,,,,,30,,,,,,,,,(Gresham'slaw),,,;,,;,,,,F/MM(C)(D)(S)(T),F,F/(M+F)F/D,,,80,F/(M+F)50%,90,,,,1992120%,F/(M+F)80%,20%,1992199320%25%,,19921993,30%45%(,),,19211923,,,,31货币替代的理论分析(MCKINNON,1982;GIOVANNINIANDTURTEL-BOON,1992),(FARUKSELCUK,1994),(VEGH,1989),,:(CASHINADVANCE)(BOYERANDKINSTON,1987)(GIOVANNINIANDTURTELBOON,1992):(CUDDINGTON,1983);(TRANSACTIONSERVICESMODELS)(MILES,1978;BANAANDHANDA,1990);(IMROHOROGLU,1991),,;,,,,;,,,,,,,,,;,,,(,):Md/P=Ld(rd,rf,r,,w)=A(wd)exp[a1(rd-rf)+a2(rd-r)-a3]Mf/P=Lf(rd,rf,r,,w)=A(wf)exp[a1(rf-rd)+a2(rf-r)-a3]Md/PMf/P,rd,32中国社会科学　1998年第3期rf,r,,wdwf(),:ln(Mf/Md)=ln[A(wf)/A(wd)]+(2a1+a2)(rd-rf)+2a3,,,,Mf/Md(F/D),,,,;,,;,,(),:Md/Pd=Ld(rd,rf,r,w)=A(wd)exp[a1(rd-rf)+a2(rd-r)](1)Mf/Pf=Lf(rd,rf,r,w)=A(wf)exp[a1(rf-rd)+a2(rf-r)](2),MdMfrw,,a2,a1a1ln(Pd/Pf)=ln[MdA(wf)/MfA(wd)]-(2a1+a2)(rd-rf)(3),E=Pd/Pf,(id-if)z,rd-rf=id-if-zln(E)=ln[MdA(wf)/MfA(wd)]-(2a1+a2)(id-if)+(2a1+a2)z(4)(4)33货币替代的理论分析,,,,,,a1,,,,,,,:,:,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,34中国社会科学　1998年第3期,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:(),,()(),,,,,,,,,,,,,(1982)(1982)(1985),,,35货币替代的理论分析1994,,,,,,;,(,20%),,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,(),,36中国社会科学　1998年第3期,,,,,,,,,,,,(),;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,199337货币替代的理论分析,1993,,,,,;,:,,,199612,()3.8,200,,,,,,,,:=--,19911996,:;;,,,1.F/(M2+F)(%)19936.096.326.056.1819945.776.016.316.2219956.576.616.436.2119965.555.505.505.50:38中国社会科学　1998年第3期,F/(M2+F)M21,199319966.61%,5.5%,199319956%,1996,19861995,,,,,,,,1994,,,:1.Bana,I.M.andHanda,J.,1990,Currencysubstitutionandtransactioncosts,EmpiricalEco-nomics,15(3),23143.2.Bergstrand,J.H.andBundt,T.P.,1990,Currencysubstitutionandmonetaryautonomy:theforeigndemandforUSdemanddepostits,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,9,32534.3.Bordo,M.D.,andE.U.Choudhuri,1982,Currencysubstitutionandthedemandformoney:someevidenceforCanada,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking(Columbus,Ohio),Vol.14,4857.4.Boyer,R.S.andKingston,G.H.,1987,Currencysubstitutionunderfinanceconstraints,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,6,23550.5.Brillembourg,A.,andS.M.Schadler,1979,AmodelofCurrencysubstitutionexchangeratedetermination,197378,StaffPapers,InternationalMonetaryFund(Washington),Vol.26,51342.6.Calvo,G.A.andVegh,C.A.,1992,Currencysubstitutionindevelopingcountries:anintroduc-tion,RevistadeAnalistsEconomico,7(1),328.7.Cuddington,J.,1983,Currencysubstitutability,capitalmobilityandmoneydemand,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,2,11133.8.Giovannini,A.,andTurtelboon,B.,1992,Currencysubstitution,NBERWorkingPaper,no.4232.39货币替代的理论分析9.Girton,Lance,andD.Roper,1981,Theoryandimplicationsofcurrencysubstitution,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking(Columbus,Ohio),Vol.13,1230.10.Imrohoroglu,S.,1991,Anempiricalinvestigationofcurrencysubstitution,mimeo,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,CA.11.McKinnon,R.I.,1982,Currencysubstitutionandinstabilityintheworlddollarstandard,AmericanEconomicReview,72(3),32033.12.Miles,M.A.,1978,Currencysubstitution,flexibleexchangerates,andmonetaryindepen-dence,AmericanEconomicReview(Nashville,Tennessee),Vol.68,42836.13.Poloz,StephenS.,1986,Currencysubstitutionandtheprecautionarydemandformoney,Jour-nalofInternationalMoneyandFinance(Guildford,England),Vol.5,11524.14.Ramirez-Rojas,C.L.,1985,CurrencysubstitutioninArgentina,Mexico,andUruguay,StaffPapers,InternationalMonetaryFund(Washington),Vol.32,62967.15.Vegh,C.A.,1989,TheoptimalinflationtaxinthepresenceofCurrencysubstitution,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,24,13946.16.:,199317.,,18.,19.,20.,21.:,199822.:,1994〔本文责任编辑:李　文　王清芳〕40中国社会科学　1998年第3期