国内外天然气价格形成机制探讨_马惠新

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摘要第二次石油危机之后,各国纷纷意识到能源来源多元化的重要性,世界能源结构逐步过渡到石油、煤炭、天然气和核能等互补竞争的时代。天然气因其优质、高效、清洁的特性,在世界一次能源消费结构中的比例不断扩大,有人甚至说21世纪是天然气的世纪。我国正逐步进入天然气大发展时期,但现行天然气价格形成机制不畅,导致优质资源没有优势价格,影响了天然气工业的进一步发展。我国天然气价格形成机制具有明显的垄断性质,政府在定价中居于主导地位,并对天然气定价实行分段管理,即分为井口价、管输价和配气价。定价方法以成本加成定价法为主,辅以协议价、照付不议价和油价指数定价法,LNG(LiquefiedNaturalGas)进口价则参照国外定价。这种定价方法导致天然气价格缺乏市场敏感性,产业链利润分配不合理,与替代资源相比价格偏低,昀终导致需求膨胀,甚至引发了大范围的气荒。国外经验表明,天然气价格形成机制必然要从垄断市场逐步走向竞争性市场,引入第三方,通过气对气竞争昀终实现资源的优化配置。这使我国天然气价格形成机制改革明确了未来发展方向,即逐步放开政府管制,引入市场竞争机制。本文运用实证法、历史归纳法、比较分析法、统计调查与分析法等方法,首先结合天然气的资源特性与产业特征,分析了天然气价格的影响因素,介绍了天然气定价机制的一般理论及国际现行的六种天然气定价方法,并研究了国内学者关于我国现行天然气价格形成机制的讨论和观点。接下来分别介绍了国际四大天然气区域市场:北美、欧盟、俄罗斯和亚太地区的天然气定价实践,分析了天然气工业在不同发展时期和不同资源禀赋条件下的价格形成机制选择,研究天然气价格形成机制的一般规律。结合我国天然气资源特性、行业发展阶段和天然气定价的历史演变,分析目前国内天然气定价中存在的主要问题,并对理顺我国天然气价格形成机制提出对策建议:加强基础设施建设,发展竞争性市场,逐步引入市场净回值定价法和扩大油价指数定价法应用的范围等,以期对我国天然气价格改革提供参考。关键词:天然气,价格形成机制,垄断市场,竞争性市场ResearchonDomesticandOverseasNaturalGasPriceFormationMechanismAbstractAfterthesecondoilcrisis,manycountrieshaverealizedtheimportanceofdiversificationofenergysourcesandtheworldenergystructurehavegraduallytransitedtocomplementarycompetitiveera,mixingofoil,coal,naturalgasandnuclear.Naturalgasisintheproportionofexpandingintheprimaryenergyconsumptionstructureintheworldbecauseofitshighquality,efficientandcleancharacteristics,somepeopleevensaidthatthe21stcenturyisthecenturyofnaturalgas.Chinaisgraduallyenteringtheperiodofgreatdevelopmentofnaturalgas,butthepoorcurrentgaspriceformationmechanismhaveledtonoadvantageofpriceevenhighqualityresourcesandaffectedthefurtherdevelopmentofnaturalgasofourcountry.China'snaturalgaspriceformationmechanismhassignificantmonopolycharacter,thegovernmentplaysaleadingroleinpricingandimplementsofsub-managementofnaturalgaspricing,whichmeansthegaspricesaredividedintowellheadprice,pipelinetransportationpriceanddistributionprice.Themainpricingmethodologyiscost-pluspricingmethod,supplementedbyagreementprice,paywithnobargainingandoilpriceindexationmethods.MeanwhiletheimportpriceofLNG(LiquefiedNaturalGas)referstotheforeignpricing.Thispricingapproachleadstolackofmarketsensitivitytogasprices,unreasonableprofitdistributionofgasindustrychain,lowpricescomparedwithalternativeresources,finallyresultinginexcessivedemandandevenawiderangeofgasshortage.Overseasexperienceshowsthatnaturalgaspricingmechanismmustgraduallymovetowardsthecompetitivemarketfrommonopolybymeansofbringingintothethirdpartysoastoachieveoptimalallocationofresourcesviagas-on-gascompetition.Thefirstpartofthispaper,combiningtheresourcefeatureofnaturalgasanditsindustrialpropertyfeature,analyzedtheimpactfactorsofnaturalgasprices,introducedthegeneraltheoryofnaturalgaspricingmechanismandinternationalcurrentsixnaturalgaspricingmethods,andresearcheddiscussionsofdomesticscholarsonChina'scurrentnaturalgaspriceformationmechanism.Then,itintroducednaturalgaspricingpracticesofthefourmajorinternationalnaturalgasregionalmarkets:NorthAmerica,EuropeUnion,RussiaandtheAsia-PacificRegion,analyzednaturalgaspriceformationmechanismchoicesofthenaturalgasindustryindifferentdevelopmentstagesanddifferentresourceendowmentsandstudiedthegenerallawsandrulesofthegaspricesformationmechanism.Thirdly,itmadeananalysisofthemainproblemsinthecurrentdomesticgaspricing,combiningfeaturesofnaturalgas,theindustrystageofdevelopmentandhistoricalevolutionofnaturalgaspricinginourcountry,andgavesomeadvicesandmeasuresinordertosmooththepricingmechanismofnaturalgas,includingdevelopingcompetitivemarkets,graduallyintroducingnetbackfromfinalproductandexpandingoilpriceindexation,soastogivereferencestothereformofnaturalgaspricing.Keywords:naturalgas,thepriceformationmechanism,monopolymarket,competitivemarket目录第1章绪论..................................................................................................................11.1研究背景..........................................................................................................11.1.121世纪是天然气的世纪........................................................................11.1.2中国进入天然气大发展时期.................................................................21.1.3现行天然气价格形成机制不畅.............................................................31.2研究目的与意义..............................................................................................31.2.1研究目的.................................................................................................31.2.2研究意义.................................................................................................31.3研究思路、内容与方法..................................................................................41.3.1研究思路.................................................................................................41.3.2研究内容.................................................................................................41.3.3研究方法.................................................................................................5第2章国内外研究现状..............................................................................................62.1天然气特性及价格影响因素...............................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