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PartIIIOligopolyPricing237Chapter7GameTheoryIDraft=game12.texAugust6,1999WhatisCrashBandicoot?In1995Sega’sSaturnandSony’sPlayStationmadetheirAmericandebut:utilizing32-bittechnologyandbasedonCD-ROMtechnologytheyfeatured3-Dgraphicsandgamesthat“arefasterandricherincolor,detail,andaction”thantheprevailing16-bitsystems.1AsthemanagerinchargeofthePlayStation,thinkabouthowyouwouldhavedecidedthefollowing:WhatpricewouldyouchargeforthePlayStation?ForPlayStationgames?HowmanydifferentgameswouldyouhaveavailablewhenthePlayStationmakesitsdebut?Whatkindofcontractswouldyouenterintowiththird-partysoftwaredevelopers?Whatwouldbethelicensefeethatthird-partydevelopershavetopayforalicense?WhychooseaCD-ROMtechnologyratherthanacartridgebasedsystem?Whatwillbethetechnicalspecifications:resolution,speed,etc.?Howmuchwillyouinvestinmarketing?Whatformwillthemarketingcampaigntake?ThedeterminationofthepriceandcharacteristicsofthePlayStationandtheprice,variety,qual-ity,anddevelopersofcompatiblegamesarealldecisionsthatshouldincorporatestrategicreasoning.Yourbestchoicewilldependonwhatyouexpectyourcompetitors—SegaandNintendo—todoandhowtheywillrespond.Ifyourpriceistoohigh,yourgamesnotsufficientlyattractive,yourselec-tionofgamestoolow,yourgamestoopricey,yourgraphicstoocrude,oryourprocessortooslowthelaunchofthePlayStationwillnotbeasuccessandyouwilllikelybeoutofjob!Thestandardofcomparisonisnotabsolute,butrelative.WhatmattersishowthePlayStationstacksupagainstthecompetitionandthisrequiresyoutogetinsideoftheirshoestotryandfigureoutwhattheyare1FordetailsseeNeilGrossandRichardBrandt,“SonyhasSomeVeryScaryMonstersintheWorks,”BusinessWeek23May1994;EdwardBaig,“3-DVideoGames:TheNextGeneration,”BusinessWeek16October1995.239240CopyrightcbytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,1999.Allrightsreserved.likelytodoandhowtheywillrespondtotheintroductionofthePlayStation.2Strategicreasoningincorporatesthisinterdependencyandgametheoryisthescienceofstrategic-decisionmaking.Thischapterisanon-technicaluser-friendlyguidetonon-cooperativegametheory.Assuchitisaconceptualintroductiontothetechniquesusedinthechaptersthatfollowandisnotreallyasubstituteforagametheorytext.However,ourpresentationinthischapteranditscompanion(Chapter9),aswellastheextensiveuseofgametheoryinwhatfollows,shouldprovidesufficientopportunitytobecomecomfortable,ifnotmaster,theapplicationofmanygame-theoretictools.Webeginthischapterbyelaboratingonwhyandwhengametheoryisappropriate.Thisisfollowedbyabriefdiscussionofgametheoryfundamentals:thebasicelementsofagame,aclas-sificationoftypesofgames,theroleofequilibriumconcepts,andtheunderlyingassumptionsofgametheoretic-analysis.Mostofthechapterconsidersthedevelopmentofsolutionconceptsforthesimplestclassofgames—staticgamesofcompleteinformation.7.1WhyGameTheory?Inthissectionweintroducethedefiningconceptofagame-theoreticsituation:payoff-interdependency.3Payoff-interdependencyexistswhentheoptimalchoicebyanagentdependsontheactionsofothers.Themutualdependencyofpayoffsontheactionsbyallplayersdefinesagame-theoreticsituation.Incontrast,decision-theoreticsituationsarewhenthereisnorecognizedpayoff-interdependence:thepayoffsorprofitsofanactionaredeterminedwithoutconsideringthechoicesofothers.Example7.1Decision-TheoreticExamplesPricingofgasandelectricservicebyPacificGasandElectric(PGE)intheSanFranciscoBayarea.Untilquiterecently,PGEhadamonopolyonprovidinggasandelectricserviceinmostoftheBayarea.4ThepricingoftheWindowsgraphicaloperatingsystemforpersonalcomputers.Over90%ofthePCs(personalcomputerswithaX86orcompatiblemicroprocessor)soldin1997intheUnitedStatesshipwithaversionofMicrosoft’sWindowspre-installed.Theoperatingsystemonover80%ofallPCsintheUnitedStatesbelongstotheWindowsfamily.5ConsideralsoMicrosoft’sdecisionofwhentointroduceupgradesandwhatkindofimprovementstoputinthoseupgrades.ASaskatchewanwheatfarmer’spricingdecision.Actually,thewheatfarmerprobablydoesnotmakeapricingdecision,butinsteadtakespricesasgivenandinsteaddecideshowmuchwheattoproduce.McDonald’shiringdecisionsinalargecity.Again,itisunlikelythatMcDonald’sactuallysetsthewagesofitsemployees.Itsabilitytoreducewagesislimitedbythealternativesavailabletoitsemployees.2CrashofcourseisfeaturedinthePlayStation’sbest-sellinggame.ItishardtoarguewithSony’sstrategy.Bythemiddleof1998cumulativeworld-widesalesofthePlayStationwere33millionunitsand236milliongameCDs.Foritsfiscalyearendin1998,itsPlayStationrevenues(playersandgames)were$5.5billionandoperatingincomefromthePlayStationwere$886million—22.5%ofitstotal.SeeIreneKuniietal,“TheGamesSonyPlays”,BusinessWeek15June1998InternationalEditionfordetailsonthesuccessofthePlayStationandthestrategiesresponsible.3Sometimespayoffinterdependencyisreferredtoasstrategicinterdependency.4However,thingschange.TheCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommissionhasrecentlyallowedcompetitivesupplytosomeusersforbothgasandelectricservice.SeeBenjaminHolden,“CaliforniaTakesStepstoOpenPowerSales,”TheGlobeandMail21December1995:B10.5UnitedStatesv.MicrosoftCorporation,Complaint18May1998{2.CopyrightcbytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,1999.Allrightsreserve