房地产价格波动与宏观经济基本面的互动机制研究

摘要近年来，房地产业在我国国民经济中的地位日趋重要，而房地产价格的快速上涨已经引起了社会各界的广泛关注与重视，尤其是引起了中央对房地产价格调控的关注。此外，房地产价格的波动是伴随着我国当前经济投资过热、消费不足的现实情况相紧密联系的。如何保持房地产价格与宏观经济的协调发展，己经成为摆在我国政府面前的一个突出难题。因此，正确认识房地产价格的波动规律，尤其是将其与宏观经济的变化相联系，科学评价当前房地产价格波动的趋势，准确评估房地产价格对宏观经济的正向和负向的影响，对我国政府采取的宏观调控具有十分重要的意义。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上，结合我国近年来的房地产价格波动与宏观经济发展的实际情况，以房地产经济学、宏观经济学为基础，以计量经济学为工具，研究了我国房地产价格波动与宏观经济之间互动机制的理论框架，定性的分析了它们之间的作用渠道和机理，最后通过实证研究分析，分别从房地产价格波动对宏观经济的作用机制和宏观经济基本面以及宏观调控对房地产价格波动的作用机制两个方面说明了我国房地产价格波动与宏观经济实际发展之间的协调关系。本文的结论认为:一、我国房地产价格在全国总体范围内是由宏观经济基本面支撑的，可以合理保持其适度的上升，同时使其不脱离经济基本面的约束;二、目前房地产价格的增长已经对我国的消费产生了负面的抑制影响，即产生了明显的储蓄效应和负的财富效应;三、房地产价格的增长己经对企业产生了明显的成本效应，会影响到企业的投资决策;四、宏观调控中的利率、货币供应量等货币政策以及土地政策对房地产价格波动有明显的作用效应。希望本文的研究成果能有利于房地产市场参与者科学的认识房地产价格变化的规律，深入理解房地产价格与宏观经济、宏观调控之间的互动机制;同时能够为政府进行宏观调控提供足够的理论依据和实践证明。关键词:房地产价格宏观经济基本面波动互动机制浙江大学硕士毕业论文房地产价格波动与宏观经济基本面的互动机制研究吴宝申ABSTRACTInreeentyears，therealestateindustryinthenationaleeonomybecamemoreimPortant.FUrthemore，therapidriseoftherealestatePrieeshaseausedtheeommunity，5eoncem，esPeeiallyeausedthegoVenllnent，5attention.Inaddition，thefluetuationsinProPertyPriees15alwaysaccomPaniedbythecurrenteeonomicoverheatedinvestmentandtheinsuffieienteonsumPtionelosely.Asaresult，howtomaintainthePropertyPrieesandtheeoordinationofmaeroeconomicdeveloPmenthasbeeomeaseriousProblemforChinesegovernlnent.Therefore，it15ilnPortantthatthegovenunentmusthavetheeorreetunderstanding，PartieularlyinthevieWPointofmaeroeconomies，oftherealestatePrieefluetuationlaw，theseientificevaluationoftheeurrentfluetuationsinthePrieeofrealestatetrendsandaeeurateassessmentofPositiveandnegativeeffeetsofrealestatePrieesonmaeroeeonomies.Basedontheresearchfromhomeandabroadinreeentyears，wefouesedontherealestatePrieefluctuationsandthedeveloPmentofthemaeroeconomiesituationinreality.Bytheway，weusetherealestateeeonomiesandmaeroeconomicsasthetheoretiealfoundation，andalsousetheeconometriesasatool.Basedonthese，weanalyzesthetheoretiealframeworkoftheinteraetionmeehanismoftherealestatePrieefluetuationsandthemaeroeeonomies，andqualitatiVelyanalyzestheroleoftheirehannelsandmeehanisms.Finally，weanalyzestheroleoftherealestatePricefluetuationsonthemaeroeeonomicmeehanismsinehinabyemPiriealresearch，ontheeonirar又wealsoanalyzesther()leofthemaeroeeonomiefundamentalsandthemacro一eontrolontherealestatePrieesfluctuations.TheeonclusionshowstheeoordinationbetweentherealestatePrieefluetuationsintheactualdeveloPmentandthemaeroeeonomie.Atlast，thisPaperdrawsconclusionsasfollows:firstly，therealestatePrieesintheoverallrangeofthewholeeountry15suPPortedbymaeroeconomiefundaments，50it15reasonabletomaintainamodestrising，subjeetedtotheeonstraintoftheeconomie允ndamentals;seeondly，thegrowthinProPertyPrieeshasinfluencedtheeountry’sconsumPtion，orhadanotieeablenegativeimPaetonthesavingsandthewealths:thirdly，thegrowthinProPertyPrieeshasinflueneedenterprisesfromtheobviouseost一effeetiveness，andhasimPacteedontheirinvestmentdeeisions:finally，bothofthemonetaryPolieiessuehastherateandthemoneysuPPlyandthelandPolieyinmaero一eontrolhavetheimPortanteffeetsontheProPertyPricefluctuations.TheobjeetsofthisresearehalsoineludethatiteanhelPtheProPertymarketPartieiPantsunderstandthelawofrealestatePrieeehangesandthein一dePthunderstandingoftheinteractionmeehanismbetweentherealestatePrices，themaero一eeonomy，andthemaero一eontrol.Furthemore，iteanProvideadequatemaero一eontroltheoryandPraeticalcasesforthegovernlllent.Keywords:therealestatePrieefluetuationsthemaeroeeonomiefundamentalsinteraetionmeChanism浙江大学硕士毕业论文房地产价格波动一与宏观经济基本面的互动机制研究吴宝申目录摘要................................................................……，，，.……‘..................................……IABSTRACT二‘..................................……，...............................................................……11第一章绪论..................................................................................................……11.1问题的提出及研究意义········································，························……””’‘’“11.2相关研究及综述···················································，····················，，·····、·，、·……51.3研究内容及方法······················································································……81.4小结、·····································································································……10第二章房地产价格波动度量方式研究............................................................……n2.1房地产价格的涵义及类型·····································································……n2.2房地产价格波动的涵义······································································，·……122.3房地产价格指数理论研究····································································……192.4宏观经济基本面的概念········································································……252.5小结········································································································……26第三章房地产价格波动与宏观经济基本面互动机制的理论研究................……273.1房地产价格波动对宏观经济基本面的作用机制································……273.2宏观经济基本面对房地产价格波动的作用机制································……313.3宏观调控对房地产价格波动的作用机制············································……343.4房地产价格波动与宏观经济基本面互动机制的理论框架················……