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褚王涛(,100083):,,2002~2008,,,,:指数函数;趋势预测模型;原油价格;中期预测:F2240:A:1004-972X(2010)09-0052-06(1931),,,,,,,21,,!21,,,,20086,![1],,,,2~5,(一)霍德林原则,,R,T,U,,r,tDt,tpt,,[2-4],,U=∀Tt=0ptDt(1+r)-t(1)∀Tt=0Dt#R(2)(1)0~T;(2)(1)(2)L,UL=∀Tt=0ptDt(1+r)-t+(R-∀Tt=0Dt)(3):L/Dt=0,(3):L=ptDt(1+r)-t+(R-Dt)+pt+1Dt+1(1+r)-(t+1)+(R-Dt+1):(1+r)pt=pt+1(4),:pt=p0ert,t=0,1,2,3∃T(5),,:2010-05-20:褚王涛(1981%),男,河北秦皇岛人,中国石化石油勘探开发研究院博士后,研究方向为国际石油经济油气投资经济评价52褚王涛:指数函数趋势预测模型在国际原油价格中期预测中的应用,,MRMR(D)=pD/D=p+p/D*D(6),(6)(5):pt+pt/Dt*Dt=(p0+p0/D0*D0)ert,t=0,1,2,3∃T(7)(7):pt(1+1/edt)=[p0(1+1/ed0]ert,t=0,1,2,3∃T(8)ed,ed=pD/Dp(5)(8),,,,(二)基于机会成本理论对霍德林原则的完善和补充,,,,,,,3:(MPC),;(MUC),;(MEC),,,,,,,,,,,tt+1,p=a-bD,tRt,t+1Rt+1,R,r,MUU,:MUCt={[a-b(Rt+1-1)]*1-MPCt+1}/(1+r)(9)MUUt=[a-b(Rt+1)]*1-MPCt(10)R1R2,1,(9)(10),:(1+r)(Pt-MPCt)=Pt+1-MPCt+1,t=0,1,2,3∃T(11)(11)(4),,(11),(11)(9),:MUCt=∀Ti=t+1[(a-bRt)-MPCi]e-r(i-t)(12)(12),,,,,;,,,:pt-MPCt=MUCt=MUC0(er/2)t=MUC0e(r-ln2)t,t=0,1,2,3∃T(13)(13),,(11)(13),,,,,(13),0rln2,0er/21,,,:[5]MUCt=MUC0ert*,t=0,1,2,3∃T;,ln~N(0,2)(14)532010年第9期(一)国际原油价格历史走势的局部选择2002WTI,2002119.71,,,620086133.88,,2009239.09,870%,2001,,,20017690.4,20078522,1.73%,1980~20071.21%,,,,,200111300,200712379,1.5%,1980~20072.36%,19991633,,200620071522,,,,20071~20091,2007129.83,2008410.20,610.01;,2008316.53,200872007,,,,,,,,,,(二)实证检验EIA20021~20092WTI,(CPI-U),20021~2008620087~20092IEA&2008∋,54褚王涛:指数函数趋势预测模型在国际原油价格中期预测中的应用20,,20021~2009220,,,(11)(13)12,89.4%95.6%,(一)未来国际原油价格波动的周期性决定了模型的可用性1.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2.:;12002~2008:/2002~200720082002~200720082002200851.83%49.93%645609278.615.64%17.58%526-12422.927.212.01%12.54%264-190n.a.n.a.8.23%7.49%86-608.317.46.57%6.46%120-253n.a.n.a.4.32%5.27%414044250.31.40%0.72%-54-135n.a.n.a.100%100%10482034242注:数据根据&2003~2009年BP世界能源统计∋计算;北美地区不包括美国,2002~2007,,,,,2002~2007,104.8,,,,,,,OPEC,2009BP,2008OPEC71.1,200282552010年第9期,OPEC,OPECOPEC,OPEC,,,,,,,70%,GDP,,,;,,,;,,,,2002~2007,,,22002~2008:/2002~200720082002~200720082002~2007200830.10%27.12%2.02%-3.34%140-33228.77%29.83%5.12%2.65%34627319.69%20.60%5.49%-0.11%268-812.89%11.48%0.32%-1.19%-23-496.86%9.89%21.53%9.43%3543020.84%0.48%-13.27%30.68%43400.84%0.61%11.90%-9.66%7-23100%100%4.40%0.57%1048202注:数据根据&2003-2009年BP世界能源统计∋计算;欧洲不包括前苏联地区,亚太其他地区不包括中国日本和澳大利亚,,,(11)(13)(二)模型在中期国际原油价格预测中的应用方法4:,,CPI,,CPI,,,,,CPIARMA,,25,25,,,,,,,,,,2002~2008,,2~5,:56褚王涛:指数函数趋势预测模型在国际原油价格中期预测中的应用[1]JamesD.Hamilton.UnderstandingCrudeoilPrices[EB/OL].(2008-12-06)[2009-01-06].[2]HaroldHotelling.TheEconomicsofExhaustibleResources[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1931,(39):137-175.[3].!%%%Hotelling[J].,1999,26(6):59-62.[4]TobiasKronenberg.ShouldweWorryabouttheFailureoftheHotellingRule[EB/OL].[2009-01-06].[5],,.Matlab[M].:,2007.ExponentialTrendPredictionModelforMedium-termPredictionofInternationalCrudeOilPriceCHUWang-tao(GlobalResearchCenter,Pepris,Sinopec,Beijing100083,China)Abstract:Onthebasisoftheopportunitycosttheory,themodelfromHotellingrulewasrevised,andanewexponentialtrendpredictionmodelwasderivedundertheconditionofnon-utilitymaximization,thusenrichingthetheoreticalbasisandapplicationrangeofthismodel.Therelateddatainthecontinuousincreasestageandtherapiddeclinestageintheperiodfrom2002to2008wereusedforthefittingtest,andthetestresultsprovedthatthismodelhadgoodexplanatorycapacity.Basedontheanalysisofthereasonofthecrudeoilscarcitychangeandtheworldcrudeoilimportandexportstructure,itcouldbeseenthatthecrudeoilscarcitywouldshowacyclicalchange,whichwassuitableforthismodelapplication.Attheend,theapplicationapproachofthismodelwasputforward.Keywords:exponentialfunction;trendpredictionmodel;crudeoilprice;medium-termprediction(:)(37)JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,1994,(27).[3]Panayotou.GlobalizationandEnvironment[D].CenterforInternationalDevelopment,HarvardUniversity,CIDWorkingPaper,2000,7(53).[4]Rauscher.NationalEnvironmentalPoliciesandtheEffectsofEconomicIntegration[J].EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy,1991,7(3).[5]Stevens.DoEnvironmentalPoliciesAffectCompetitiveness[J].TheOECDObserver,1993,(183).[6]Selden,Song.EnvironmentalQualityandDevelopment:IsthereaKuznetsCurveforAirPollutionEmissions[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,1994,(27).[7],.[M].:,2005.18-26.AnalysisoftheEnvironmentalEffectImpressedbytheForeignTradeXIEJuan,XUYi(SchoolofEconomicandTrade,HunanUniversity,Changsha410079,China)Abstract:Basedonbuildingaresource-economicalandenvironmental-friendlysociety,thethesisdescribesthesignificantmeaningofprotectingtheenvironmentinforeigntrade.Furthermore,itexplainsthemechanismhowforeigntradewillaffecttheenvironmentalprotectionbytheanalysisofenvironmenteffectinforeigntradeandtheconstructionofthetransmissionmechanismanalyticalframework,whichlaysasolidfoundationfordealingwiththecoordinateddevelopmentbetweentheenvironmentandthetradeproperly.Keywords:foreigntrade;environmentaleffect;resource-economical;environmental-friendly(:)572010年第9期