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欧元区债务危机对美元指数及国际黄金价格走势影响分析摘要金融危机以来，多数国家为了应对危机，实施了刺激经济复苏的量化宽松货币政策，为通货膨胀预期埋下了伏笔，而市场对通货膨胀的预期渐渐开始释放，投资者为了应对货币持续扩张的风险，明显增加了对黄金的需求，导致国际金价逐步走高。市场避险情绪上升，黄金作为市场喜爱的避险品种再次受到追捧。受欧洲债务危机拖累，欧元汇率持续疲软，欧元持有者也大量抛售欧元购入美元，导致美元指数震荡走高。随着危机的不断扩大，欧盟和国际货币基金组织的援助计划的推出，以及美联储重启量化宽松货币政策QE2，使得美元指数在连续走高后开始逐步下行。而美元指数无序宽幅波动，也反映了国际金融市场的不稳定性。2009年底,金融危机的风暴还未完全散去,又一场大规模的主权债务危机登上了舞台。包括希腊、葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、西班牙等国先后出现了严重的财政赤字和公共债务崩溃，《欧盟稳定与增长公约》的警戒线也形同虚设，欧盟7500亿的输血计划没有让欧元区顿时起死回生，各个国家面临极大的主权信用风险。金融危机留下的隐患,使得欧盟近两年经济增长乏力，但同时仍必须维持高福利的社会待遇，而欧盟成员国经济发展又不均衡，导致财政负担非常沉重。欧盟内在的制度使得其成员国缺乏用货币政策工具来调控宏观经济，财政支出扩大具有内生性的倾向，加上没有严格的约束机制和惩罚机制，造成此举愈演愈烈。欧盟目前如果想尽快走出困境，除了采取有力的救助计划之外，还应对整个经济制度框架进行改革，制定出统一的财政政策制度框架和严格约束惩罚机制。欧洲主权债务危机本质上是欧洲经济一体化的制度缺陷在金融危机冲击下的一次总爆发。本文就欧债危机的演进路径进行了简要的分析与判断，讨论了欧债危机对美元指数以及国际金价的走势产生的一系列影响。并且通过此次危机对我国政府在制定宏观经济政策以及调整产业结构时起到一定的警示作用，同时能够预防国际投机资本对我国经济的冲击。关键词：主权债务危机信用风险宽幅波动制度缺陷TheimpactanalysisofeurozonedebtcrisisagainstthedollarindexandinternationalgoldpricetrendABSTRACTSincethefinancialcrisis,mostcountriesinordertocopewiththecrisis,implementthequantitativeaneconomicrecoveryloosermonetarypolicy,forinflationexpectations,andburiedaforeshadowingthemarkettotheinflationexpectationsslowlybegantorelease,investorsinordertodealwithcurrencyriskofcontinuedexpansiondramaticallyincreaseddemandforgold,leadtotheinternationalgoldhigher.GraduallyMarketgoldasahedgeemotionrising,themarketlikeagainadorehedgevarieties.BytheEuropeandebtcrisisdrag,theeuroremainsweak,theeuroholderalsoheavysellingboughtdollars,leadtoeurodollarindexconcussiongoup.Asthecrisiscontinuestoexpand,theEuropeanUnionandtheinternationalmonetaryfund,andtheaidprogramlaunchedthefedtorestartquantitativeloosermonetarypolicyQE2,makingthedollarindexincontinuousgohighbegangraduallytothedownside.Andthedollarindexdisorder,itreflectsthewidefluctuationsininternationalinstabilityinfinancialmarkets.Bytheendof2009,thefinancialcrisisstormarenotcompletelydispersed,andamassivesovereigndebtcrisisappearedonthestage.IncludingGreece,Portugal,Italy,Ireland,Spainandothercountriessuccessivelyappearedtheseriousfiscaldeficitsandpublicdebtcollapse,theEuropeanUnion'sstabilityandgrowthpactcordonalsonon-existing,eurozone7500millionbloodtransfusionplandidn'tlettheeurozoneimmediately,countriesfacegreatbackthesovereigntyofcreditrisk.Financialcrisislefthiddentrouble,maketheeurozonenearlytwoyearsofeconomicgrowth,butalsostilllackofsocialbenefitsmustbemaintainedhighwelfare,whileeurozoneeconomicdevelopmentanduneven,causefinancialburdenisveryheavy.Theeurozoneinternalsystemmakesitsmemberswithmonetarypolicytoolstolack,regulatingmacroeconomicexpansionoffiscalexpenditurehasthetendencyofendogenous,plusnostrictconstraintmechanismandpunishmentmechanism,causingittogetworse.TheEuropeanUnion,ifyouwanttogooutofdifficultposition,andassoonaspossibleexceptadopteffectivereliefplan,butalsotothewholeeconomicsystemreformandworkouttheframeworkofunifiedfiscalpolicyinstitutionalframeworkandstrictconstraintmechanismofpunishment.TheEuropeansovereigndebtcrisisisessentiallyEuropeaneconomicintegrationsystemdefectimpactedbythefinancialcrisisatotaloutbreaks.ThispapertheEuropeandebtcrisisevolutionbrieflyanalysedandjudgment,discussedtheEuropeandebtcrisisonthedollarindexandtheinternationaltrendofaseriesofgoldproducedeffects.Andthroughthiscrisisinourcountrygovernmentformulatedformacroeconomicpoliciesandadjusttheindustrialstructureplaysacertainrolewhenthewarning,andcanpreventtheinternationalspeculativecapitalonourcountry'seconomicimpact.KEYWORDS:sovereigndebtcrisiscreditriskswidefluctuationssystemdefect目录第一章绪论......................................................................................................................................................11.1研究背景...............................................................................................................................................11.2研究意义..............................................................................................................................................31.3研究内容..............................................................................................................................................4第二章欧洲债务危机的成因及影响分析......................................................................................................82.1欧债危机的形成原因...........................................................................................................................82.1.1经济增长的放缓和社会福利居高不下...........................................................................................82.1.2欧盟实行单一的调控经济政策变量.......................................................................................82.1.3欧盟各成员国经济发展不均衡...............................................................................................82.1.4美国次贷危机后财政支出的持续扩大...................................................................................92.2欧债危机的负面影响.........................................................................................................................102.2.1欧债危机导致人民币升值.......................................................