水资源影子价格动态投入产出优化模型研究

200555:100026788(2005)05200492061,2,1(11,100080;21,100080):.,,,.19993319492050.:;;;;:F40719;F22419:ACalculationofChineseShadowPriceofWaterResourceBasedonDynamicComputableEquilibriumModelsHEJing1,2,CHENXi2kang1(11AcademyofMathematicsandSystemsScience,CAS,Beijing100080,China;21GraduatedSchoolofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China)Abstract:Thispaperputforwardanewapproachbasedonthedynamicinput2outputoptimizingmodeltosolvetheproblemontheoptimizedallocationofwaterresourcethroughlong2periodspan.Firstly,webringforwardthenonlineardynamicinput2outputoptimizingmodelconcerningthebroad2senseshadowprice.Secondly,webringforwardthecalculationapproachandtheprocess.Lastly,byusingthe1999InputOutput33sectorswaterresourcetablesinChinaand9majorriverstables,webringforwardtheresultofshadowprice1949-2050inChinaand9majorrivers.Keywords:input2outputanalysis;dynamics;shadowprice;optimizingmodel;waterresources:2004206201:(70131002):(1977-),,,,.,E2mail:[e-mail].1(shadowprice),,[1].(Kantorovitch)(JanTinbergen),,[2].,:.,,[5].,..,,,,[6]..,.©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,..,,.[1].,.,..,,.,;,[7].,.,.,.,.:,,.,.,.2211():nj=1Xij(t)+nj=1Zij(t)+Yci(t)=Xi,(1)Kij(t+1)=Kij(t)+Zij(t)-Dij(t+1).(2):X(t)t;A(t)t;B(t)t;(t)t;Yc(t)t;Kij(t)jti;Zij(t)jti;Dij(t)jti.1aij(t)=Xij(t)Xj(t),i,j=1,2,,n.(3)2bij(t)=Kij(t)-Kij(t-1)Xj(t)-Xj(t-1).(4)3ij(t)=Dij(t)Xj(t).(5):0520055©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.nj=1aij(t)Xj(t)+nj=1[bij(t+1)(Xj(t+1)-Xj(t))+ij(t+1)Xj(t+1)]+Yci(t)=Xi(t)i,j=1,2,,n(6):[I-A(t)+B(t+1)]X(t)-[B(t+1)+(t)]X(t+1)=Yc(t)(7)212(Dorfman)(Samuelson)(Solow).,.,,,,,,,.,,.,[I-A(t)+B(t+1)]X(t)-[B(t+1)+(t)]X(t+1)=Yc(t).(7):C(t)=Yc(t)X(t),(8):X(t)=A(t)X(t)+B(t+1)(X(t+1)-X(t))+(t)X(t)+C(t)X(t).(9),:X(t+1)=(1+a)X(t),(10)t+1t1+a.a.:1aX(t)=[I-A(t)-(t)-C(t)]-1[B(t+1)+(t)]X(t),(11):1aX=[I-A--C]-1[B(t+1)+]X,(12):I.(HawkinsSimon)(Solow),:,[I-A--C]1,[I-A--C]-1,[I-A--C]-1[B(t+1)+]=H,2:,,(),().2(Perron2Frobenius).2,.213,,,.::X=AX+Y.(13),,:X…X=(I-A)-1…YY(14):X,Y,;155©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.…X,…Y,,.,.,,,.,,.,,,.,,,,.214,,,..,,,.,.:maxZ=(I-A(T))X(T)s.t.A(t)X(t)+B(t+1)(X(t+1)-X(t))+(t)X(t)+C(t)X(t)X(t)t=1,2,,T-1.A(T)X(T)+B(T+1)(…X(T+1)X(T+1)-X(T))+(T)X(T)+C(T)X(T)X(T)Aw(T)X(T)W(T)L(t)X(t)l(t)X(t)0,X(T+1)0t=1,2,,T(15):t;T;X(t)t;A(t)t;X(t)t;…X(t)t;Av(t)t;C(t)t;Aw(t)t;W(t)t;B(t)t;(t)t;Yc(t)t;L(t),l(t).,,GDP.,,.2520055©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.3311:,,T+1…X(T+1).,.…X(T+1),.,(1)19992005,200552005.(15)2005,199951,19491999,20002050.,,2,5,.312,..200211,,19991999,[1].,19995133,5133.,,,,,,,,.,,.,,,.119492050:P19490.4820003.8619590.1120053.9919652.0120084.1019802.8920104.2919933.4620154.4719943.5720204.5819953.6920254.7719963.8020304.9319973.9220405.1119983.7920505.3919993.8544111999,,,1,2.412..,,,.,,,.355©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.219492050:P19490.260.360.330.260.320.380.400.570.6519590.060.080.080.060.070.090.090.130.1519651.111.501.371.101.331.591.672.382.7219801.592.161.971.581.912.292.393.423.9119931.912.592.361.902.282.742.874.094.6819941.972.672.441.962.362.832.964.224.8319952.032.762.522.022.432.923.064.364.9919962.092.842.602.082.513.013.154.495.1419972.162.932.682.152.593.113.254.635.3019982.092.842.592.082.503.003.144.485.1319992.122.882.632.112.543.053.194.555.2120002.132.892.642.122.553.063.204.565.2220052.202.982.732.192.633.163.314.725.4020082.263.072.802.252.703.253.404.855.5520102.363.212.932.352.833.403.555.075.8120152.463.343.052.452.953.543.705.286.0520202.523.433.132.513.023.633.795.416.2020252.633.573.262.613.153.783.955.646.4520302.713.693.372.703.253.914.085.836.6720402.813.823.492.803.374.054.236.046.9220502.974.033.682.953.564.274.476.377.29:[1],.[J].,2003,15(3):49-54.XiuliLiu,XikangChen.Input2outputanalysisappliedinthecalculationofchineseshadowpriceofwaterresource[J].ChineseJournalofManagementReview,2003,15(3):49-54.[2].[J].,1997,14(2):41-50.HenganWu.Caculationoftheshadowpricebasedonthecostapproach[J].ChineseJournalofWaterEconomics,1997,14(2):41-50.[3],.[J].,1999,22(4):38-39.ZhenZeng,Hengpan.Calculatingthepriceofwaterbyusingshadowprice[J].ChineseJournalofTechnologyEconomics,1999,22(4):38-39.[4].[J].,1997,23(2):108-109.GuangbinZhao.Researchonshadowprice[J].ChineseJournalofWaterConstructionofHeilongjiangProvince,1997,23(2):108-109.[5].[J].,1999,5(3):8-14.ZhileZhang.Thecalculationtheoryfortheshadowwaterpriceastheoutputofthesupplyingwaterproject[J].ChineseJournalofTechnologyandEconomicofWaterPower,1999,5(3):8-12.[6],.[M].:,2001.15-18.DajunShen,RuijuLiang,HaoWang,etal.TheoryandCalculationonthePriceofWater[M].SciencePress,Beijing,2001,33-35.[7].[J].,1995,2(3):6-11.ZhaoJingwen.Analysisoftheshadowprice[J].ChineseJournalofEconomicsandEducationManagement,1995,2(3):6-11.4520055©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.