申银万国-石油行业：天然气上调时机恰当，成品油价格下调及时-

本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用1IndustryIndustryResearchOil&GasJune01,2010石油行业:-天然气上调时机恰当；成品油价格下调及时事件：国家发展改革委通知，决定自6月1日零时起将汽、柴油价格每吨分别降低230元(3.1%)和220元(3.3%)，国产陆上天然气出厂基准价格每立方米提高0.23元，涨价幅度约为25%。点评:“[e-mail](8621)63295888×[e-mail]天然气调价时机恰倒好处。天然气的提价是市场期待已久的，鉴于年初时的通胀压力而一度推迟。最近国际油价大幅调整,国家在降低成品油价格的同时提高天然气价格，在一定程度上缓解了提价带来的通胀压力。调价的幅度符合我们此前预期的0.2-0.3元/立方米。天然气调价不涉及天然气价格机制的调整。我们认为此次天然气调价是一次性的调整，不涉及天然气定价机制的变化。由于4月份管输费上调了0.08元/立方米(约8%），目前天然气终端价格累计涨幅约30%，对下游造成一定的压力。我们预期天然气价格短期内保持稳定，在12个月内不会再次上调。　中石油（0857.HK）是天然气价格上涨最大的受益者，中石化（0386.HK）其次。天然气价格上调对中海油(0883.HK)没有影响。此前我们假设中包含了30%的天然气价格上涨，由于此次涨幅约为25%，对中石油和中石化两家公司11年EPS分别会有约2%和1%的负面影响，但影响不大。成品油下调比预期的及时。22日三地原油的平均价格在上周五达到调价窗口，比我们之前预计6月上中旬下调成品油价格提前。及时调价有利于提高投资者对政府遵守新的成品油定价机制的信心。我们认为，成品油价格如能继续往市场定价机制靠拢，炼油企业和上游企业的估值差异将逐步减小。　推荐顺序维持不变。我们维持公司推荐的排序:中海油（买入，目标价15.3港币），中石化（增持，目标价8.0港币），中石油（中性，目标价9.6港币）Thecompanyoritsaffiliatemayhaveequitiesofthelistedcorporationreviewedauthorizedbylaw.Thecompanymayalsoprovideinvestmentbankingandconsultingservicetothelistedcorporation.TheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdis[e-mail]rehensiveunderstandingofthedisclosureinthelastpage.本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用2SectorCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage1Event:OnMonday,theNDRCannouncedanRMB0.23/cubicmeterex-plantpricehikefordomesticallyproducednaturalgas,equivalenttoa25%increase.Meanwhile,itcutgasolineanddieselpricesbyRMB230/tonneandRMB220/tonne,representingdecreasesof3.1%and3.3%,respectively.Comments：Goodtiming:webelieveitisagoodtimeforthegovernmenttoraisetheex-plantnaturalgaspriceastheglobalpriceofoilfalls,toofferapricecutopportunityforrefinedproducts.Apricedecreaseforrefinedoilcanoffsetconcernsaboutinflationstemmingfromthenaturalgaspricehike.ThemagnitudeofthepriceincreaseisinlinewithourexpectationsofRMB0.2-0.3/cubicmeter,butthiscouldhavebeenimplementedsooner.One-offgaspricehikedoesnotimplyapricingmechanismchange:weviewthepricechangeasone-offadjustment,whichdoesnotindicateanyrealpricingmechanismchanges.Sincepipelinetariffsalsoincreasedrecently(RMB0.08/cubicmeter,8%),thereiscurrentlysignificantpricepressureforendusers.Therefore,furtherpricehikesareunlikelytocomewithinthenext12months.PetroChina(0857.HK)willbenefitthemostfromgaspricehike,followedbySinopec(0386.HK).ThereisnoimpactonCNOOC(0883.HK).Weaccountedforagaspricehikeof30%forPetroChinaandSinopec.Theactual25%pricehikewouldcause2011EPSforPetroChinaandSinopectodecreasebyonly2%and1%,respectively.Timelyrefinedoilproductspricecut:thepricecutwindowsopenedlastFriday(May28)whenthe22-dayaveragehaddecreasedmorethan4%.WeexpectedtheNDRCwouldimplementapricecutinthemiddleofJuneduetohighvolatilityofrecentcrudeprices.Inourview,itisencouragingforinvestorstoseethatthegovernmentrespectsthenewpricingplanforrefinedoilproducts.Ifthistrendcontinues,thevaluationgapbetweenrefiners(Sinopec)andupstreamcompanies(CNOOC)shouldnarrow.Ourstockrecommendationsremainunchanged:CNOOC(BUY,TPHK$15.30),Sinopec(OUTPERFORM,TPHK$8.00),PetroChina(NEUTRAL,TPHK$9.60)本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用3SectorCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2InformationDisclosure：Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheanalyst.Theanalystdeclaresthatneitherhe/shenorhis/herassociateservesasanofficerofnorhasanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbytheanalyst.Noneofthelistedcorporationsreviewedoranythirdpartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyoftheanalyst,theCompanyorthegroupcompany(ies).Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanyconfirmthatthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanymarketmakingactivitiesforanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(ii)donothaveanyindividualemployedbyorassociatedwithanygroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanyservingasanofficerofanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(iii)donothaveanyfinancialinterestinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedor(iv)donot,presentlyorwithinthelast12months,haveanyinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationreviewed.UndertakingsoftheAnalystJimTang,RongYe:EquityAnalystIamconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaorhaveequivalentprofessionalcompetence.Iissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligence.Thisreportdistinctlyandaccuratelyreflectsmyresearchopinions.Ihaveneverbeen,amnot,andwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionsherein.InformationDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdis[e-mail]tmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRating：Whenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarket’sbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsaftert