石脑油影子价格及其影响因素分析

(,300271)PIMS,,,,,:1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1t,[1,2](ASPENTECH)PIMS,,,[3]PIMS,22.11,,N+2A(+2),,N+2A42%,,(),1//(),%(N+2A)%3211068.633.9329081.119.33215475.527.94017569.442.08417555.452.38417549.256.32.2,1,()2,3:2004209208;:2004211228:,1985,2000MBA,,,520055PETROLEUMPROCESSINGANDPETROCHEMICALS36512/kta-11)6121.006PTA3020.6542203.175680.8651300.944600.9991)3/t-1/t-13140661042007100562092302840C4355044503260531016203PIMS,PIMS,,()PIMS(CASE),,PIMS,,,4,4.1,PIMS,PIMS,852005361t,,(0+%),,(PTA),PTAPTA,,,,,PIMS(),PTA,,[4](0+%),,0+%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%8,22;;;;;2,,,,,0+%35%,3232,3208,3165/t3799,3789,3650/t,567,581,485/t,0+%35%,3504/t3598/t4397/t4500/t,893/t902/t,2,,4.2:A,PTA;B,PTA,C5,2814/t5%35%,AB,:5%+A5%+B35%+A35%+B,,44/t5%AB35%AB3232323237993232320832083789320831653165365031653369336933144199336933143504350434644397350434643598359835584500359835584,A,(),;(),,,955.(),PTA,,4,PTAB,C5,AB,,,;,4.3,,,,,,,5%(95%),15%15%30%,55,,;,5,15%30%,15.5%31.1%,17.3%34.6%,5/t15%15%30%3218323237344236319032083707420630823165365441443032336939564543317935044114472432693598421548315(1)PIMS,(2),,1..,1990,10(2):14182..:,1995.851003..,1989,4:45504..,2005,36(2):636706200536SHADOWPRICEOFNAPHTHAANDITSMAJORINFLUENCINGFACTORSTangWeiqing(TianjinPetrochemicalCorporation,Tianjin300271)AbstractThecalculationoftheshadowpriceofnaphthaandfactorsaffectingitwerediscussed.Inanintegratedunitofethyleneproductionandcatalyticreforming,themarginalcontributionofeachfeedstockstreamwascalculatedbyagrossinputandoutputmodeldesignedwiththeaidofProcessesIndustryModelingSystem(PIMS)software.Themarginalcontributionfromvariousnaphthafeedstockscouldthusbesolvedunderanyoperatingconditions.Theshadowpriceofvariousnaphthafeedstockswasobtainedbyaddingthecorrespondingmarginalcontributionwiththerawmaterialpurchasingcost.Factors,suchasthescantinessofnaphtha,thecomplexityofprocessandfacilities,productpriceandetc.,allaffectedtheshadowpriceofnaphtha.Itconcludedthattheshadowpriceofnaphthawashigherwhenthenaphtharesourcesbecamemorescant,theproductionprocessgrewmorecomplicatedandthefinalproductpricewenthigher.KeyWords:naphtha;shadowprice;influencingfactor;optimization;model;technicaleconomicalevaluationM&GPET15,M&GIpojuca450kt/a(PET)1.5,2006M&GPocosdeCaldas200kt/aPET,PauliniaBP225kt/a(PTA)M&G1300kt/aPET,VoridianPET[ChemicalWeek2005201205]Ticona15,TiconaTiconaVectra,Fortron1050,24000[ChemicalWeek2005201205]165.