黄金价格影响因素与中期定价模型研究

tatPMC=atMCSatQSbtQSSStatbtQQQ=+*11(1)sttbtQRgQ−−=+,1,1()SSSatatbttQQPQRg−−=tttRgCyρ=+,,()SSbtbtttQQRgCyρ=,1,1,1,,()()SSSStattbttbtttQQPPQRgQRgCyρ−−−=+,1,1,,1(,)SStttttttQQPPCyCyρρ−−−=DDDtUtAtQQQ=+,1,11111(,,_,_,,,_,_,,)DDAAttttttttttttQQRgRgggDollarindexDollarindexCPICPIVCPIVCPIRPRPββ−−−−−−=,1,,11111()(,_,_,,,_,_,,)DDDtUtAttttttttttttQQPQRgRgggDollarIndexDollarindexCPICPIVCPIVCPIRPRPββ−−−−−−=+,,1,1,,11111()(,,_,_,,,_,_,,)StttDttttttttttttQPRgRgQRgRgggDollarIndexDollarIndexCPICPIVCPIVCPIRPRPββ−−−−−−−=1,11(,_,_,,ttttttttPPRgRgggDollarIndexDollarIndexββ−−−=11111,_,_,,),,,,,,ttttttttttCPICPIVCPIVCPIRPRPOIOINPNP−−−−−0ttPRg∂∂10ttPRg−∂∂0tPCy∂∂0tPρ∂∂0tPgβ∂∂0_tPDollarindex∂∂0tPCPI∂∂0_tPVCPI∂∂0tPRP∂∂0tPOI∂∂0tPNP∂∂PgPg11(1I)tttPusaPusaUSCPMOM−−=×+gβgβtPgtPusa(1)IlntPglntPusalntPglntPusa1lna()lnb()()_ttttPgALPgBLCPIcCLVCPIα−∆=+∆+∆+∆1()ln_()ln()()()()ttttttttdDLDollarIndexeELOIfFLRPgGLghHLRgiILNPecmβγµ−+∆+∆+∆+∆+∆+∆++αtµ1tecm−lntPglntPusa1tecm−11lnlnttPgPusa−−−ln0.0110.0120.52ln_0.132lnttttPgCPIDollarIndexOI∆=+∆−∆+∆310.046ln0.0510.016tttOIRPRg−−+∆+∆−∆10.0138tRg−+∆110.17610.150.02019tttNPNPecm−−+∆+∆−tCPI∆lntPg∆ln_tDollarIndex∆gβRPtRg∆1tRg−∆_OpenInterestNPOINPln0.126090.28439ln_0.30922lnttttPgCPIDollarIdexOI∆=∆−∆+∆310.10687ln0.099740.23875tttOIRPRg−−+∆+∆−∆10.20277tRg−+∆110.253270.216050.14273tttNPNPecm−−+∆+∆−