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[4]XiaoboZhang,RaviKanbur,Whatdifferencesdopolarizationmeasuresmake?AnapplicationtoChina.TheJournalofDevelopmentStudies37,3:85-98,Feb.2001.[5].[J]..2007(4).[6],,.:[J]..2003(3).[7].[M].:,2006.[8],,.[J]..2007(4).[9].[J].,2006(11).,,36,,2000,,,,(:):SITCREV123,,,,,,,,,,,:;;;:C812:A:1002-4565(2009)04-0025-08CompetitionorCooperationbetweenDragonandElephant:AnAnalysisofChina2IndiaTradeRelationBasedonTechnicalStructureofExportZhuShujinChenYanXieRuiAbstract:AccordingtoSITCREV123,thispaperexplorestraderelationshipbetweenChinaandIndiabyanalyzingchangesofexporttradestructuresandmeasuringbothcountriestradecompetitivepower,complementarities,similarityindexandTechnologySophisticationofexporttrade.Empiricalresultsshowthatexporttradestructuresofbothcountrieshavebeenoptimizingandtechnologylevelshavebeenrising.However,technicalstructureimprovementofChinasexportismuchhigherthanthatofIndia.ThereexistdifferencesonexportstructureandtechnologylevelbetweenChinaandIndia.Sotherelationbetweentwocountriesisnotcompletecompetitionbutstrongcomplementarity.Establishingafreetradeareabetweenthemcanenlargebilateraltradeandinvestment,bringcomplementaryadvantagesintofullplay,accelerateadjustmentofindustrystructureandadvanceoftechnologyandachievethewin2winsituationinfinal.Keywords:StructureofExportTrade;TradeComplementarities;ExportSimilarityIndex;TechnologySophistication(07&ZD017)(70603011)26420094StatisticalResearchVol.26,No14Apr.2009,,,,,2005,,,2006120,20076,20088,,,,2007,,,,,,,,,,,,??,,,(2003)(2004),,,Wadud,Mokhtarul(1998)(2004)(2004)(2005),,,,(2006),,(2004)(2005)(2005)WuZhou(2006),,,WuZhou(2006),,(2008),,,,,,,,StandardInlernationalTradeClassifictionSITCREV123GDPCPI(UNCOMTRADEDATA),SITCREV123239;GDPCPI(IMF),,2620094GDPPPP,,2000CPI,1992-2006,,Lall(2000),,2395:(PP)(RB)(LT)(MT)(HT);9,11PPRB1RB2LT1LT2MT1MT2MT3HT1HT2,,,(),,,21,,,GDP10%,GDP8%;1990216,2002,53%,20032004,,20062481612007386,2008,,,2010400600()1992(PP)(RB2),40%2915%;,(RB2),6515%;2006,,(HT1)(MT3)(MT2),2718%1616%12124%,(PP)(RB2),3419%1715%;(RB2),65%,,,(),,19922006,200660%,HT1,1525%,LT1PP,18%11%264:27,3,1992-2006,,,,LT1,1518%,,,2006,,(),:NTBia=(Xia-Mia)P(Xia+Mia)(1)XiaMiaia,NTBiaia,NTBia[-1,1],-1NTBia0,a,0NTBia1a(1),11992-2006,,,(LT2)(MT1)(HT1)(HT2),MT11992-016220060132,HT11992-012520060151,,(PP)(LT1),,,,(LT1),2000,,(PP)(LT2)(MT1),15;(HT2)20002001,(),(2003),:Caij=RCAaxiRCAamj(2)CaijijaRCAaxiia,RCAamjja,:RCAaxi=XaiXiXawXw(3)RCAamj=MajMjXawXw(4)XaiXawia;XiXwi;Majja;Mjj:Cij=aCaijXawXw=aRCAaxiRCAamjXawXw(5),,,,,,(,2003),,(RB2),;(HT1)(LT2)(MT2)(MT3)2820094,(HT1)(LT2),,(MT2)(MT3),(LT1)(RB2),;,,(MT2)(RB1),(MT2),,,(LT2)(MT1)(HT1)(HT2),,,,,():Sp(ij,n)=aXainPXin+XajnPXjn21-(XainPXin)-(XajnPXjn)(XainPXin)+(XajnPXjn)100(6),Sp(ij,n)ijn,ij,na,XainPXinXajnPXjnijna[0,100],,100,,0,,,,,1992-2006,,2006,53101,,,,,;,,,;,1992-2002,,,2003-2006,,2006,61176,,,(2002),(2006),(2006)Lall,JohnandZhang(2006),(2007);Hausmann,JasonandRodrik(2006),Xu(2006),(2002)LallJohnandZhang(2006),(2007),(2006)Hausmann,JasonandRodrik(2006),Hausmann,JasonandRodrik(HJR)(2006)(2006)(2007),()HJR,:264:29TCa=ni=1wiaYi(7)wia,:wia=RCAiaPni=1RCAia(8)RCAiaia:ETC=ma=1TCaXiaXi(9),ETC,m1992,,,1992,3,1-56418%,1992;2,25%,,1-578158%,1992,,1992,200339,19922003,200361066157%,,200323,199211%,,2003,67139%,4,,,,(9)1992-2003,,,,,;,(),,,,2002;,1999,618%,13%,,,,,(),,(,,2007):TCIa=(TCa-TCmin)P(TCmax-TCmin)(10)TCIaa,TCaTCmaxTCminaa,,(11)ETCI=ma=1TCIaXiaXi(11),,,3020094,,(,2007)1992-2003,,,,215%,,213%,,,113%,1997,,2002,,,,,,,200319928,,,,,,SITCREV123239,,239510,,19922006,,;,,,200660%,,,,,,,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,24,,,,;,,264:31,,,,,,,,IT,,,[1].[J],,2003(1):57-60.[2].[J],,2004(1):49-54.[3]Wadud,I.K.M.Mokhtarul.Aninternationalcomparisonofdynamicadvantageintexilesandclothingtrade:Estimatesandimplications[JPOL].http:PP[4].[J],,2004(8):59-63.[5].[J],,2004(3):6-12.[6].[J],,2005(3):30-34.[7],.[J],,2006(4):52-58.[8].:1947-2003[M],,2004.[9].[J],,2005(5):32-35.[10].[J],2005(2):118-122.[11]WuYanrui,ZhouZhangyue.ChangingbilateraltradebetweenChinaandIndia[J].JournalofAsianEconomics,2006,17(3):509-518.[12],QureshiM.S.,.:?[J],2008(4):66-77.[13]LallSanjaya.TheTechnologicalStructureandPerformanceofDevelopingCountryManufacturedExports1985-1998[J].OxfordDevelopmentStudies,2000,28(3):337-368.[14].[J],,2003(5):33-40.[15].[J],,2002(4):5-12.[16],,.:[J],,2006(8):70-80.[17],.[J],,2006(4):59-66.[18]LallSanjaya,WeissJohnandZhangJinkang.Thesophisticationofexports:Anewtrademeasure[J].WorldDevelopment,2006,34(2):222-237.[19],.:1980-2003[J],,2007(7):137-151.[20]HausmannRicardo,JasonHwangandRodrikDani.WhatYouExportMatters[J],NBERWorkingPaper11905,2006.[21]XuBin.MeasuringthetechnologycontentofChinasexports[J].WorkingpaperCEIBS,2006.,,1974,,,,:,,1984,,,:,,1981,,,:(:)3220094