《人民币升值对中国出口型企业的影响及对策》中英文

TheImpactandCountermeasuresofRMBAppreciationonExport-BasedEnterprisesinChinaMinYuanSchoolofEconomics,TianjinPolytechnicUniversityTianjin300387,ChinaE-mail:[e-mail]nomics,TianjinPolytechnicUniversityTianjin300387,ChinaE-mail:[e-mail]nwillposeachallengetoexport-basedenterprisesinChina,andbringasenseofcrisistothem.Therefore,China'sexportenterprisesshouldtakeactivemeasurestodealwiththeimpactcausedbytheRMBappreciation,sothatexport-orientedenterprisescanbetteradapttothechangesintheglobaleconomy,thusmaterializingtheirsustainableandstabledevelopment.Keywords:RMBappreciation,Export-basedindustries,Prosandcons,CountermeasuresTheappreciationoftheRMBhasbecomemuch-discussedfocusintheinternationaleconomyandsociety.Chinahasbeguntoimplementthemanagedfloatingexchangeratesystembasedonmarketsupplyanddemand,withreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.RMBexchangerateisnolongerpeggedonlytotheU.S.dollar,andinsteadChinahasformulatedamoreflexibleRMBexchangeratemechanism.RMBappreciationwillposeachallengetoexport-basedenterprisesinChina,andbringasenseofcrisistothem.Therefore,China'sexportenterprisesshouldtakeactivemeasurestodealwiththeimpactcausedbytherisingYuan,sothatexport-orientedenterprisescanbetteradapttothechangesintheglobaleconomy,thusmaterializingtheirsustainableandstabledevelopment.InJune,2008,theexchangerateofRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarexceededthe7:1boundary.ThetrendofaYuan’sriseisforeseeable,andintheirreversibleenvironment,wemusttakeappropriatestepstopreventlargefluctuationsinRMBtomitigateitsnegativeimpactontheimportandexporttrade,whileatthesametimemakingfulluseofthesmallriseinyuantopromotetradedevelopment.Yuan’sriseisnotonlyconducivetoadecreaseinimportcostsanddomesticinflation,stimulationtoconsumption,accelerationofstructuraladjustment,promotionofforeigninvestmentandthereductionintradefriction,butintheshorttermwillalsohaveanegativeimpactonexports,influencingforeigninvestmentandemployment.1.MajorindustriesdamagedbyandbenefitingfromYuan’sriseTheimpactofaYuan’sriseonvariouskindsofsectorsvariesaccordingtothedifferentcharacteristicsofindustries.RMBappreciationbringsadvantagestotheindustriesthatneedtoimportrawmaterials,butisnotfavorabletoonesthatareexport-oriented.Italsobringsopportunitiestotheupgradeandoptimizationoftheseindustries,thoughcertainindustrieswillbeadverselyaffectedbyit.ThemainindustriesbenefitingfromYuan’sriseareasfollows:(1)realestateandinfrastructureones,whichbelongtothenon-realestateindustry,withitsdomesticrealestatevaluecomprehensivelyenhancedbyariseinYuan;(2)onessuchinfrastructureindustriesasairports,ports,railways,andhighwayscharacterizedbylimitedresources,monopoly,thelongconstructionperiod,andsmallsupplyelasticity;(3)thefinancialsector,especiallybankingandsecurities,whichisamongcapital-intensiveindustriesdealingwithcurrenciesandcapital.Becauseofgoodliquidity,itiscategorizedintotheindustrywithahighvalueofRMBassets,benefitingfromattractingalargeamountofinternationalcapital;(4)onessuchasaviation,electricity,oilrefining,paper-making,engineeringmachinery,andsoon,whichwillseeareductionincostsowningtoitsmaindependenceonprocurementofforeignrawmaterialsorequipments,orbecauseofthebenefitsresultedfromlargeamountsofexternaldebtserviceandtheexchangegainsandlosses,inparticulartheaviationindustrywiththedominanceofthedomesticmarket;(5)high-techonesrelyinguponimportingtechnology,whichdon’thaveanyadvantageinintellectualpropertyrightsrelatedtokeysciencesandtechnologies,willalsomaintainthemomentumofalargeamountofimportsinacertainperiodoftime,andareabletokeepuptheiradvantageincostsunderthepremiseofariseinYuan.MajorindustriesdamagedbyYuan’sriseareasfollows:(1)asforexport-orientedones,suchasthetextileindustry(especiallygarmentindustrywiththehighdegreeofdependenceonexportsmoredamage,followedbythecottonspinningindustryandwoolindustry),householdappliances,buildingmaterials,whoseproductcompetitivenesswillbeweakenedtoalargeextent;(2)foreigntradeenterpriseshaveadisadvantageouspositionintheindustrychain,andtheirimportbusinesswillbeunabletogainexcessprofitsfromtheappreciationoftheRMB,withtheexportbusinesssufferingalot;(3)mining,petrochemical,andnon-ferrousmetalindustries,whichwillbegivenabigblowbytheirexportbusiness;(4)agriculturewithalargerproportionofexports.2.TheimpactofRMBappreciationonChina'sexportenterprises2.1AdverseeffectsonChina'sexportenterprises2.1.1TheexportofmanufacturedgoodsisgreatlyaffectedbyfluctuationsinexchangerateonawidebasisRMBappreciationwillinduceaincreaseincurrencyexchangecostinChineseexportfirms,resultinginthelossofpriceadvantage.ThecostreferstotheRMBcostpaiddomesticallyonthenetrevenuefromonedollar’worthofexports.China'smanufacturingexportsaremoreconcentratedonlow-endproducts,withcompetitiveadvantageweak.Theseproductscompetewithotheronesmainlybymeansofprizing,andasaresulttheYuan’srisewillhavearetardingeffectontheirexports.Foremployeesinthemanufacturingsector,thosethatareseriouslyaffectedmayfacethereducedincome,oreventheriskofunemployment.Theadverseimpact