中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算

:2008-01-25:,,,,,*中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算*齐晔1李惠民2徐明3(1.,100084;2.,100875;3.,100101),1997-2006:1997-2006,,,1997-2004,0.5%~2.7%,2004,200610%,1997-200212%~14%,2002,2006,29.28%,,;;F206A1002-2104(2008)03-0008-06(InternationalEnergyAgency,IEA)!2006∀,,2010(NetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency),,200662t,58t,,,,;,;,20076!∀,,,,,,,,,,,,2500t,1400t,,,,,,20004700,2006,17600,,,1994,200024120061775,20072622,,,;,,,,??#8##2008183CHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENTVol.18No.320081隐含碳,,,,,,EmbodiedCarbonEmbodied1974,(IFIAS),,embodied;,embodied,(BrownandHerendean,1996),,,Odumemergy()(Odum,1983;1996;1998)2090,TonyAllyembodied,(virtualwater),(Allan,1997)2090,WiliamWackernagel,,(Ecologicalfootprint),(,,,,,)(,2000),,embodiedEmbodied,,embodied(BrownandHerendean,1996)2090,,embodied,,:(Reindersetal,2003;AhmadandWyckoff,2003)(Ackermanetal,2007;Kondoetal,1998)(TolmasquimandMachado,2003;Schaeffer,1996;Machadoetal,2001)(PetersandHertwich,2006)(Mongellietal,2006)(MaenpaaandSiikavirta,2007)(SanchezandDuarte,2004)(Lenzen,1998)(ThiandIshihara,2006)(ChangandLin,1998)(Lietal,2007;ShuiandHarriss,2006;,,2006;,2007),(,,2006;,2007;TolmasquimandMachado,2003;Machadoetal,2001;Mongellietal,2006;ThiandIshihara,2006;Lietal,2007)(AhmadandWyckoff,2003;Ackermanetal,2007;TolmasquimandMachado,2003;Schaeffer,1996;Machadoetal,2001;Mongellietal,2006;MaenpaaandSiikavirta,2007;SanchezandDuarte,2004;ShuiandHarriss,2006)(PetersandHertwich,2006),(Reindersetal,2003;AhmadandWyckoff,2003)(MaenpaaandSiikavirta,2007;Lenzen,1998),(Kondoetal,1998),ShuiandHarriss(ShuiandHarriss,2006)EconomicInputOutputLifeCycleAssessment,,1997-2003,,7%~14%,,,2方法和数据2.1计算方法,:C=ni=1Mi∃i(1),C,Mii,,ii,,,,,i:i=E∃+E∃+E∃(2),EEE,;,/10924.79,19.89,13.96(,2000),,ji,ji,aij,aij=Xij/Xj(3)aijA,A#9#:bij,j,ibijBAB:B=(E-A)-1-E(4),,%,2,,i2.2相关技术处理,,,,:(1)1992,HS(TheHarmonizationCodeSystem)HS2298,,,HS,98(2)!2002∀(,2006),122HS,HS,122,,98(3),,,,,,,,,,,(),;,,,,(4)!2002∀20022002,,,,(1)(5),,,,:(),,(6),,,,,,,11997-2005Tab.1AmendedparametersofcarbonintensityofChinaandJapanin1997-2005199719981999200020012002200320042005a101.94101.1299.71100.11100.81100.00101.20105.15107.04a8.298.288.288.288.288.288.288.288.19b1.381.231.121.040.991.001.051.101.08c100.03100.70100.37100.0099.2098.3198.0798.0597.49d120.83130.40113.54107.70121.59124.96115.80108.13109.97e0.990.981.001.000.990.980.980.970.97:a.!2006∀;b.1997-2005GDP,!∀;c.,://://:,,!∀3结果3.1中国国际贸易中的隐含碳净出口估算上限,,,,,,,,(1)1,,,,,,1997-2006(2),1997-2002,,20031,,1997-2006,,,,1997-200212%~14%,2002,2006,29.28%1997-20061821Mt,2006,,,,3.2中国国际贸易中的隐含碳净出口估算下限,,(),:,,,,,,11997-2006Fig.1AccountingmaximumofembodiedcarbonbenetexportedininternationaltradeinChinain1997-200621997-2006aFig.2TotalcarbonemissionsofChinain1997-2006a.2000-2004EIA,~2.7%,2004,200610%,#11#:4结论和讨论4.1近年来我国碳排放总量的飞速增长与日益扩大的贸易顺差密切相关1997-2006,,2003,200610.32%;,29.28%,31997-2006Fig.3AccountingminimumofembodiedcarbonbenetexportedininternationaltradeinChinain1997-20064.2受资料的限制,本文仅估算了隐含碳净出口的上限和下限,但这对于全面认识我国的碳排放具有重要意义,,,5,,,,,,,4.3以价格为基础的投入产出法,扭曲了各国技术方面的真实差异,这是投入产出法的一个重要缺陷,(PurchasingPowerParities,PPP),4.4生产者和消费者,都是温室气体排放的受益者,都应该对气候变化负责1972(OECD)(PolluterPaysPrinciple),,,,,,,4.5发达国家技术水平较为先进,生产低能耗低排放产品;发展中国家技术水平较低,却生产高耗能高排放产品,这种分工增加了全球碳排放#,,,,,,,,,,,(编辑:李琪)(References)[1].2002[M].:,2006.[NationalBureauofStatisticsNationalAccountsDivision,2002ChinaInputoutputTable[M].Beijing:ChinaStatisticsPress,2006.][2].[D].:,2007.[LiuFeng.ResearchonEnergyConsumptionofTradeinChina[D].Beijing:Tsinghuauniversity,2007.][3],,.[J].,2000,(15):630~636.[YangKaizhong,YangYong,ChenJie.EcologicalFootprintAnalysis:Concept,MethodandCases[J].AdvanceinEarthScience,2000,(15):630~636.][4],.%%%[J].,2006,(21):320~323[ZhouZhitian,YangDuogui,VirtualEnergy:aNewVisualAngletoAnalyzetheHypernormalGrowthRateofEnergyConsumptioninChina[J].AdvancesinEarthScience,2006,(21):320~323.][5].[M].:,2000.[GrouponChinaCountryStudiesonClimateChange.ChinaCountryStudiesonClimateChange[M].Beijing:TsinghuaUniversityPress,2000.][6]AckermanF,IshikawaM,SugaM.TheCarbonContentofJapanUSTrade[J].EnergyPolicy,2007,35(9):4455~4462.[7]AhmadN,WyckoffAW.CarbonDioxideEmissionsEmbodiedin#12##20083InternationalTradeofGoods[EB/OL].OECDPublications,[8]AllanJA.VirtualWater:aLongTermSolutionforWaterShortMiddleEasternEconomics?PaperPresentedatthe1997BritishAssociationFestivalofScience[M].Leeds:UniversityofLeedsPress,1997,24~29.[9]BrownMT,HerendeenRA.EmbodiedEnergyAnalysisandEMERGYAnalysis:aComparativeView[J].EcologicalEconomics.1996,19(3):219~235.[10]ChangYF,LinSJ.StructuralDecompositionofIndustrialCO2EmissioninTaiwan:anInputoutputApproach[J].EnergyPolicy,1998,(26):5~12.[11]KondoY,MoriguchiY,ShimizuH.CO2EmissionsinJanpan:InfluencesofImportandExport[J].AppliedEnergy,1998,(59):163~174.[12]LenzenM.PrimaryEnergyandGreenhouseGasesEmbodiedinA