中国进出口贸易及其商品结构分析

123GrangerGranger4HHHH56¾¾¾7··················8•••••••·•·••·•·•9••••••••••10••••••••11••••••(,,)mdMfPPY=••••12•••••••••Balassa(1989)•Yeats(1989)•Redding(1999)•(1994)(2000)•GrubelandLioyd(1975)13HHHH14••••••••••1516¾¾¾¾17181920I(1)“”I(1)“”tttebxay++=tttebxay++=εΠ×αβΠαββεΠ×αβΠαββ111∆ΠΓpttitittiYYYBXε−−−==+∆++∑21¾¾¾¾¾¾221••••••232———lexsa=0.3237*lfdisa-0.4371*ltwei-0.0268*t-5.7206[-2.50879][1.65353][-33.8567]———lexsa=0.3237*lfdisa-0.4371*ltwei-0.0268*t-5.7206[-2.50879][1.65353][-33.8567]242526¾¾¾¾27¾¾¾¾¾¾28¾¾¾¾¾¾¾¾293031HtmtHtmt3.12utututut“”3.12utututut“”323.16D01013.16D010133tm)ln(3tttEPY−1tP2tP*tZLIMSALGDPEXSAGDPLCPILIPILFEAINDEXSASA34ADFLIMSA,LGDPEXSA,LCPILIPIADFLIMSA,LGDPEXSA,LCPILIPI35PPLIMSA,LGDPEXSA,LCPILIPIPPLIMSA,LGDPEXSA,LCPILIPI36ADFPP010211JohansenAICSC11-11-2.3738VAR3.13.3••39123403.041.802.503.02199420044142¾¾¾¾¾4344“”“”1145124613472RCARCARCARCA¾RCAi1,¾RCAi1,¾RCAi1,¾RCAi1,483495051525354555657585960