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上海交通大学硕士学位论文基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的几种东亚自由贸易区形式的效应比较研究姓名：彭高群申请学位级别：硕士专业：国际贸易学指导教师：奚俊芳20090101CGEWTOWTOWTOGTAP-FTA10+1FTA-10+3FTA1610+6FTA10+310+6GDP10+3FTA10+3FTA10+6FTACGECOMPARATIVERESEARCHONTHESIMULATIONOFSEVERALFTASINEASTASIABASEDONACGEMODELABSTRACTMajorcountrieschangetheirpoliticalfocusfromthestagnatedDohaRoundnegotiationstoFTAdevelopmentinrecentyears.FTAsaredevelopingdramaticallyintoday'sworld,asfewercountriesinvolvedandoperationismoreflexible.FTAisconsideredasasupplementtotheframeworkofWTObecauseofitspositiveeffects.Inordertomeetthenewworldwiderequirements,ChinaalsokeepsdevelopingtheFTAs.TheFTAstrategywasmentionedinthereportoftheseventeenthconferenceofChineseCommunistParty.IfthebenefitsandlossesoftheFTAestablishmentsamongdifferentcountriescanbecalculatedinadvance,theywillbestrongevidencesforchoosingthepotentialpartnerstoestablishFTAs.Inordertoachievetheobjective,theresearchframeworkisasfollows:ThestatusquoofeconomicsandtradecooperationinEastAsiaandtheroleofChinainthecooperationwerereviewedinChapter1,wherethemethod,frameworkandinnovationpointsofthisthesiswerealsodescribed.Chapter2reviewedthecoretheoriesandempiricalmodelsoftheresearchonFTAsandsummarizedupviewpointsofthearticlesforreference.Chapter3introducedtheCGEmodelusedinthisthesis,theGTAPmodel,includingitstheoreticalstructure,datasourcesandsolvingelements,soastosupporttheanalysisinfollowingchapters.ThesixFTAs---CAFTA,Three10+1FTAscoexistence,10+3FTA,10+6FTA,10+3FTAand10+6FTAundertheconditionsofDohaRound---weresimulatedinChapter4.Firstly,newbaselineandconditionsforthesixFTAsweredesigned.Secondly,thedetailedanalysisofeachFTAwasconducted,includingGDP,welfareandimport&exportvaluewhichthesimulationcouldaffect.Thirdly,therewasacomparativeanalysisofthesixFTAs,focusontheeffectsonChina.Thelastchapterofthethesisconcludedthatthe10+3FTAwasthebestchoiceforChina.AndforASEAN,KoreaandJapan,itwasalsoabeneficialchoice,betterthanthe10+6FTA.KEYWORDSfreetradeareaEastAsiacomputablegeneralequilibriummodelcomplementarycompetitiveadvantage11.11.1.111967ASEAN19841995901992AFTA1993200815199510200319982002690%0-5%20062008201019990-5%620154201811201020152018200360%98.25%88.48%5%63.42%20072.58%20081.95%2--1997219992000--WTO10-200111200251020062010310199818%19992000200120001130-JSEPA200211320041220055FTAFTAFTA10+62006416200820104200761-12063799145%5-0%10+1310+3131610+310+310+31.1.2200812291-1CGE41-1200810RTAs/FTAs-20057120041200411200572007120077RTAs/FTAs-2008472008472008101RTAs/FTAs-20054181111200861620122008RTAs/FTAs-200542007102008RTAs/FTAs-20053200745--200211200211---19971210+320071120112007201710+3RTAs/FTAs1620051220071121(CooperMasell,1965)Wonnacott,19817Johanson,19651232.2CGEBalassa1967Wilford1970Nagent1971Willmore19768CGECGECGEGilbert2001CGEGTAPCGEGTAPCGEGTAPGTAPPhilipD.Adams1998GTAPGTAPAPECGDP2004GTAPFTAFTAFTA-FTA2007GTAP10+310+110+3GTAP169CGE3.1CGEComputableGeneralEquilibriumCGECGECGECGEWarlas1987CGECGECGE1CGE2CGE3CGECGECGECGE3.2GTAPCGEGlobalTradeAnalysisProjectGTAPGTAPGTAPRunGTAPGTAPGTAPRunGTAPGTAPSALTER1010GTAP3.2.1GTAP3-1GTAPFigure3-1StructureofGTAPmodelGTAP3-1GTAPGTAPCGEGov.PayoutRegionalOutputFamilyPayoutSavingGlobalBankInvestmentDomesticProducerFactorIncomeGovernmentFamilyFamilyImportPayoutGov.ImportPayoutFamilyDomesticPayoutGov.DomesticPayoutIntermediateInputProducerImportPayoutProducerExportIncomeRestoftheWorld11GTAPGTAPGTAPModuleCoefficientVariableEquationFormulaGTAP-CIFFOB3.2.2GTAPGTAPGTAPGTAPGTAPGTAPGTAPGTAPGTAP2004SALTERSectorAnalysisofLiberalizationofTradeintheEastAsianRegion1980199093487573.2.3GTAPGTAPRunGTAPGTAPGTAPRunGTAPGEMPACKGEMPACKGEMPACKRunGTAPGTAPGEMPACKRunGTAPGTAPGTAPSolveGragg2-4-6RunGTAPDefaultRunGTAPRunGTAPEquivalentVariation,EVEV124.1GTAP8757871010275784.1.1GTAP8720012006-200812001122729732001200620081.95%200823.5%41.8%24%21%2007666.24%25.87%99%66%4200120062006134.1.2-10+110+1------10+31610+610+310+6GTAP10+310+610+310+610-20%50%20%-50%57%50-75%64%75%66%73%2/375%70%GTAP50%33%220133GTAPRunGTAP80%70%55%4.2-4.2.14-114ValueandgrowthratesofGDP1007743683987281159432623539.3125431315.53134196593.550171.3047352813.5938469112.562555084991.028%0.098%-0.218%-0.128%-0.012%-0.041%-0.031%-0.032%-0.029%-0.042%020000004000000600000080000001000000012000000ChinaASEANKoreaJapanNewZealandAustraliaIndiaUSEUROW-0.400%-0.200%0.000%0.200%0.400%0.600%0.800%1.000%1.200%GDP(Unit:milliondollars)GrowthratesofGDP4-1-FTAGDPFigure4-1ValueandgrowthratesofGDP(Simulation1)4-11.028%4.2.24-215Changeratesofwelfare0.526%242.504%3.026%-14.427%-21.929%2.514%6.098%-6.791%-21.380%-5.577%-50.000%0.000%50.000%100.000%150.000%200.000%250.000%ChinaASEANKoreaJapanNewZealandAustraliaIndiaUSEUROW4-2-FTAFigure4-2Changeratesofwelfare(Simulation1)4-2242.5%4-14-1-FTA-3.05%56.09%-10.13%-18.17%98.77%-8.36%-1.19%9.66%-236.13%7.99%313.15%-15.90%-2