,,,(,100084):..,;,.,,.,,;;;.:;;:F713.55:A:1007-9807(2004)06-0079-080[13],[4].,[5].,[5].,[3,68].,[9]:,,();,,,[10,11]().,,.,,.,.1,,,,.,.(),76200412JOURNALOFMANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINAVol.7No.6Dec.2004:2003-06-09;:2004-10-12.:(1969),,.©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.()()();.1.1[12,4].[3,68,13],,,,,(discon2firmation).,,.,,.,,[3,8,12,14].,.,,[212],.,.1.2.,,,,,.[12,14,15],,[3,8,12,14].,,,.1.3,,2070[16].,[10,17,18].[2,19][10],.,[14,15].,,.1.4,(perceptivevalue),[58,14].,.1.5.,,,();;60[20].,[21].08200412:,.,.©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,.1.6,,,,.,,[22].,,,.,,,.2(hierarchicallinearmodels)..:1),;2);3)[23,24],.4),,.2.1.(1):Sij=0j+ij(1):Sijji;0j,j;ij,ijN(0,2),2ij,.(1):.,.(1)0j(2).0j=00+0j(2):00;0jj,0jN(0,00),000j,.(2):.,,.200,.ij0j(),(3),.50%,,50%,.=00VAR(0j+ij)=00(00+2)(3)2.2(1),ij2,.,X,Sij=0j+1j(Xi-Xij)+ij=0j+1jXij+ij(4):Xii;Xijj.XijXij.1j.(4).2.3(2),.186:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,.0j=00+01Pj+0j(5)1j=10+11Pj+1j(6):0j1j(4);Pj;00100111.:,.2.4(5)(6)(4),Sij=(00+01Pj)+(10Xij+11XijPj)+(0j+1jXij+ij)(7):1,2;3.,,PjXij,1j0,(8).(8).Sij=00+01Pj+10Xij+0j+ij(8)33.1,2001820023.,50.52,50%;179,9287.,,.110,1,10.1829303940495059605.//3.1(1,)1336610105.2000120023.,.SAS8.2.3.2(1)(2)(3),6.758.(3)95.53%,4.47%.,.,000,.(4)19,,,(1).25,29.89%15.18%16.76%24.57%,,,,,.,,.69,0.18%0.84%0.34%0.26%,,.28200412©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.386:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(4)10.,,,.(4)11,.,95.53%98.45%,0%36.32%.,.1211,(8).:1),0.636,;2),0.449,,,;3)0.204,,.,,;4),0.1670.271,,,;5),,,[20,21].,,,.,.,.44.1,.(1),,.,.,,,,,,.(2),,.(3),.,,,,.(4),.,,,,.,.4.2,,.,,,.,.48200412©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:[1]JamesHD,ManiDR,AndrewLB,etal.Targetingcustomerswithstatisticalanddata2miningtechniques[J].JournalofServiceResearch,2001,2(3):205219.[2]LilianaLB,LesterWJ.Acustomer2serviceworkerrelationshipmodel[J].InternationalJournalofServiceIndustryManagement,2000,5:491511.[3]ManfredB,MichaelAG.Theory,developmentandimplementationofnationalcustomersatisfactionindices:TheSwissindexofcustomersatisfaction(SWICS)[J].TotalQualityManagement,2000,7:10171028.[4]NigelH,JimA.HandbookofCustomerSatisfactionandLoyaltyMeasurement[R].Bodmin,England:GowerPublishCompany,Reprinted2002.2223.[5]RichardLO.SatisfactionABehavioralPerspectiveonTheConsumer[M].Boston:Irwin/McGraw2Hill,1996.98100,142149,402405.[6]ClaesF.Anationalcustomersatisfactionbarometer:TheSwedishexperience[J].JournalofMarketing,1992,2:621.[7]EugeneWA,ClaesF.FoundationsoftheAmericancustomersatisfactionindex[J].TotalQualityManagement,2000,7:869882.[8]MichaelDJ,AndersG,TorWA,etal.Theevolutionandfutureofnationalcustomersatisfactionindexmodels[J].JournalofE2conomicPsychology,2001,22:217245.[9]MichaelDJ,ClaesF.Aframeworkforcomparingcustomersatisfactionacrossindividualsandproductcategories[J].JournalofE2conomicPsychology,1991,12:267286.[10]DanielEI,BernardJ,LaL.Modellingtheeffectsofcustomerserviceperformanceonpurchaseintentioninthechannel[J].Jour2nalofMarketing2TheoryandPractice,1994,Spring:4559.[11]DragoD.Theroleofcustomersatisfactioninachievingbusinessexcellence[J].TotalQualityManagement,2001,7&8:920925.[12]TorWA,BodilL.Customerloyaltyandcomplexservices:Theimpactofcorporateimageonquality,customersatisfactionandloy2altyforcustomerswithvaryingdegreesofserviceexpertise[J].InternationalJournalofServiceIndustryManagement,1998,1:723.[13].[J].,2002,6(3):6266.ZhangNing.Combinationestimatesofcustomersatisfactionandthresholdonmarketingresearch[J].JournalofManagementSci2encesinChina,2002,6(3):6266.(inChinese)[14]MurguletsL,EklofJ,DukeqyI,etal.Customersatisfactionandretentionintransitioneconomies[J].TotalQualityManagement,2001,7&8:10371046.[15]KaiK,AnneM,LarsG.Customersatisfactionmeasurementatpostdenmark:ResultsofapplicationoftheEuropeancustomersat2isfactionindexmethodology[J].TotalQualityManagement,2000,7:10071015.[16]ParasuramanA,ValarieAZ,LeonardLB.Aconceptualmodelofservicequalityanditsimplicationsforfutureresearch[J].Jour2nalofMarketing,1985,Fall:4150.[17]AbodAK,HishamuddinI,VenuT.Whatdrivescustomerloyalty:Ananalysisfromthetelecommunicationsindustry[J].JournalofTargeting,MeasurementandAnalysisforMarketing,2002,1:3444.[18]ArchGW,LiseLF,RobertTD.Linkingservicequality,customersatisfaction,andbehavioralintention[J].JournalofHealthCareMarketing,1989,11(4):517.[19]AdrianP,RosalindB,CarolineKM.Equityandrepurchaseintentionfollowingservicefailure[J].JournalofServicesMarketing,2000,6:513528.[20]VikasM,WagnerAK.Satisfaction,repurchaseintent,andpepurchasebehavior:Investigatingthemoderatingeffectofcustomercharacteristics[J].JournalofMarketingReseach,2001,2:131142.[21]KirthiK,DanielSP.Incorporatingdemographicvariablesinbrandchoicemodels:Anindivisiblealternativesframework[J].Mar2ketingScience,1997,2:166181.586:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[22]MichealAJ,DavidLM,SharonEB.Switchingbarriersandrepurchaseintentionsinservice[J].Jour