我国出口商品结构的决定因素和变化趋势

3:,,,,,,:,,,,,,:3,,,:100102,:[e-mail],,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,:,,(),,,,,,,,,:,;,,,2050,,1947,,,4::,,,,,2060,,,,,(Krugman,Paul),,,:,,,(HME),,(Krugman,1980),,,,,,Vanek(1968),Leamer(1980),:,,,,1947,,Leamer,,Trefler(1993,1995),,DavisandWeinstein(2001a,2001b)1985OECD2034,,,,,,,,(,1999;,2003)(,2001),,DaniRodrik(2006),,,,(2002,2004),,,,,,,(2003)(2004)520075:(2006),,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,11,,,19802005,GDP216%,619%,GDP413GDP,1,()GDP199319%20052818%,,,,,,,,:,,1GDP2120,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6::WTO,GDP,,:(),20,,,,,,,,,,,,;,;,,,;,,,(SITC)(HS),,,,,,,,,:SITC,HS213(),303030,85%,,11(1),2,1112P,,,;,,720075,,,:(),UNCTAD(),(),,30,(2007):,,,,2(2005)(2),,,,,,(3),,,,90,2005(4),,,,,,,21(1),,20%,40%,,8:,,(2),,,,,,(3),,,,,,,,30302131(1),,,,20%,1(%)200119984%200014%275%200220005715%20026317%54%20032001015%20031312%20:ITCdataWeb2:P::::::::(2),,,,,1(),,2920075:,,,,3200012005452312345678910111213,,:()()()()()(),,EViews311,,(SUR),(AR(1)),,4,White(1,3,DW015),,2413,1016920198;30129801809,DWOLS(BLUE),24,1124,,5%,,2124,,2,01::(,data1xinhuaonline1com1cn),,,4SUR1234010002533-01000037833-0100020833-01000162310172488-41453234-61005375-214960-0139291833-0114700333-0104215-012738-61814071-51363835-01384165-111557-0131042133010027810101449201049746-1418353501634790161605411918501181688330103254233-01026905-0102031112521681905753-11726853-111823601759825330107251233013374833010383690195638271040413126542019894-01138021330115056433010854630119618333-5102343511158426110554341197330100000008553301000000548330100000129330100000037431183938150463218814119996AR(1)0195604933019455223315916715514277R2016995019842013186018158R2016904019837012981018093FP24414033502617510-236615300-170316280DW0147711180670129342171196505856505851-318261912917-01118320156842-717017-916403-131509951451233171222916461311857045170944515721-4719284-147126711108945123174221411654013015522154108446-0145146184121712008151683871115279713238161187028197228-111019710108221116203161951891518525221360917131523217308101113073-1618623-514136-31907811-410269-515164-51556001393312141514025140852312016281664913514733-2718218-4611291-914513:10%,35%,331%112007531,SUR10%:,,;,,,41,2,4,,,,,,512,1%,,01760134,,01070104,,6124,,,,,,,,,,2,:,,,():,,,,:,,,2004,:()(1,57,),(6,49),(10,42),(13,37),(14,55),(15,56),55,,,,,,21:7,5(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)()++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-++0-0NA++++++++++NA+++++++++++++++0++-0+NA++++++++++0+++NA+++++++++++++++++++++-++++0-0+++++++:1-8:+++,;++,;+,;0,;-,;--,;---,;NA,,1235:,;4(30%+++,90%---,);6(15%---,75%+++,);78(10+++,11-20++,)9:1-8,---3,--2,-1,00,--1,82,,+++;12,,++;01,,+(),,,2004,1112P,814P,,,2004,,719%,,30%,,,,,,2004,30%,,,,,,70%,,,60%;,,,3000,,2(2004),,,,,,31200751:20051112P,9121311,0;612911+;312611++;312+++;13111712-;17112112--;2112---235():,,,,66(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)+++++++++++++++--+++++0+++++++-++0++NANA+++NA++-++-+++0-+++-+++0+()0++-+-++++0+++NANA+NA+++++++NA+0+++++:56,,,,,,,(),,:,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,41:,,21,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,2001:,,,1972:,,2006::,8,2003::,No1C2003033,2002:,,2004:,,2006:,26,,1999::,():,,2004:,1,2003:,1,2001::,(),10,11,1972:,,DaniRodrik,2006:?,()3Davis,D.andDavidWeinstein(2001a),AnAccountofGlobalFactorTrade,AmericanEconomicReview,91(5),14231453.Davis,D.andDavidWeinstein(2001b),DoFactorEndowmentsMatterforNorth2NorthTrade?NBERWorkingPaper8516,October2001.Heckscher,Elif.,TheEffectofForeignTradeontheDistributionofIncome(inSewedish),EkonomiskTidskrift,1919,21(2),132;5120075reprintedinReadingsinthetheoryofinternationaltrade1Homewood,IL:Irwin,1950,272300.Krugman,Paul,1980,ScaleEconomics,ProductDifferentiation,andthePattern,AmericanEconomicReview,70(5):950959.Leontief,Wassily,1953,DomesticProductionandForeignTrade:TheAmericanCapitalPositionRe2examined,ProceedingsoftheAmericanPhilosophicalSociety,97,September,332349.Leamer,EdwardE.,1980,TheLeontiefParadox,Reconsidered,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,88(3),495503.Ohlin,BertilG.,1933,InterregionalandInternationalTrade,Cambridge,MA:HarvardUniversityPress.Trefler,Daniel.,1993,InternationalFactorPriceDifferences:LeontiefWasRight!,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,101(6),961987.Vanek,Jaroslav.,1968,TheFactorProportionsTheory:TheN2FactorCase,Kyklos,21,749754.Trefler,Daniel.,1995,TheCaseoftheMissingTradeandOtherMysteries,AmericanEconomicReview,85(5),10291046.DeterminantsandTrendsofChinasExportGoodsStructureUpgradingJiangXiaojuan(GraduateSchool,ChineseAcademyofSocialScience)Abstract:Byestablishingananalyticframeworkincludingmainfactsandfactors,theauthormadeaforecastonthetrendsofexportgrowthandgoodsstructureupgrading.Firstly,theauthoridentified8criticalfactorsaffectingthestructurechangesofexportgoods,specifiedvariables,establishedananalyticmodelandtestedthemodelwithhistoricaldata.Secondly,theauthorscreenedoutsometypesofgoodswithhighertechnologicandvalue2addedcontentandgreaterexportpotential,withthefactorsgotfromthemodel,analyzedandforecastedthegrowthtrend.Themainconclusionisthatcomparativeadvantage,domesticindustrialfoundationanddomesticmarketstructure,as