技术进步对我国贸易条件影响研究

南京财经大学硕士学位论文技术进步对我国贸易条件影响研究姓名：殷瑛申请学位级别：硕士专业：国际贸易指导教师：张为付2011-01I30VECIIABSTRACTItisgenerallybelievedthatsincethereformandopening-up,remarkabletechnologicalimprovementhashappenedinChina.Meanwhile,differentmeasurementsleadtoverydifferentperformancesoftermsoftrade.Asameasurementofinterestsacountrygainsininternationaltrade,termsoftradeisaffectedbymanyfactors.Technologyisoneofthem.Thispaperintendedtofindouthowtechnologicalprogresshadfunctionedinthefluctuationoftermsoftrade,andiftherewasaconsistentimpactoftechnologicaladvanceontermsoftradeofChinaandwhetherthisimpactwaspositiveornot.Atfirst,thispaperdiscussedthetheoriesoftechnologicalprogressimpactingtermsoftrade.Thesetheoriescanbedividedintothreecategories,i.e.theoriesbasedondifferentlevelsofeconomicaldevelopment,ondifferentmethodsoftechnologicalprogressandonendogenousandexogenoustechnologicalprogress.Ofthesetheories,theCoreandPeripheryTheoryhasapessimisticpredictionaboutthelong-termtrendofunder-developedcountries’termsoftrade.Meanwhile,EndogenousTechnologicalProgressTheoryconsideredthatdevelopingcountriescannarrowthetechnologicalgapbetweenthemanddevelopedcountriestoachievetheimprovementoftermsoftrade.Intheempiricalpart,thepaperexaminedthesituationofChina'stechnologicaldevelopmenttakinglaborproductivityandtotalfactorproductivityrespectivelyastheindicator.ThenitcalculatedChina'scommoditytermsoftradeandincometermsoftrade.Itfoundoutthat,apartfromindividualyears,therewassignificanttechnicalprogressinChinaoverthepast30years.Atthesametime,thecommoditytermsoftradeshowedadownwardandfluctuatingtrend,whiletheincometermsoftradeshowedamoresignificantincrease.Thepapercarriedoutmathematicalanalysisandeconometricalanalysistodescribetherelationsbetweentechnologicalprogressandtermsoftrade.Intheeconometricalanalyzingpart,thispaperestimatedtheshortandlongtermassociationbetweentechnologicalprogressandthetermsoftradebyestablishingvectorerrorcorrectionmodel.Theresultsshowedthatthereexistedalong-termcointegrationbetweenthesetwovarieties.Inthelongrun,technologicalprogresswouldimprovetermsoftradenomatterwhichwayitwasmeasured.However,theshort-termimpactisuncertain.TheaboveconclusionkeptrobustwhenIIIusingindustrialproductsdatatore-testthemodel.Accordingtotheempiricalresults,thepaperrecommendedthatourgovernmentshouldavoidshort-sightedbehaviorwhendevelopingpoliciesandshouldfocusonthepoliciesthatcanimprovethequalityoftechnologicalprogressinthelongrun.Asaresult,thedirectionofpolicyshouldleadtotheencouragementoftheindependentinnovationofdomesticeconomicagentsand,inparticular,exportenterprisesandtheguidanceofforeigndirectinvestment.Thenthroughalastingandpowerfultechnicalprogress,thetransitionofChina’scomparativeadvantageininternationaltradecanbeachievedandChina'stermsoftradecanbefundamentallyimproved.KEYWORDSTechnologicalProgress;TermsofTrade;VECModel11.11.1.1120091978-2007TFP1995TFPTFP2.5%2200332005RaulPrebisch41959HansW.Singer519581.1978-2007[J].2009(3).2.1952-1998[J].2003(2).3.[J].2005(12).4RaúlPrebisch.“Commercialpolicyintheunderdevelopedcountries”,AmericanEconomicReview,1959(49),251-273.5Singer,H.,GeraldM.Meier.“Thetermsoftradeandeconomicdevelopment:comment”,TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,1958(40),85-90.21.1.21.Prebisch619592.ZenoEnders72009VAR6RaúlPrebisch.“Commercialpolicyintheunderdevelopedcountries”,AmericanEconomicReview,1959(49),251-273.7ZenoEnder,GernotJ.Muller.“OntheInternationaltransmissionoftechnologyshocks”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,2009(78),45-59.31.21.2.1820071952-2007920031952-199819781020091952-2007Holz1120061953-2003122009HolzHolz2007197820071.2.28.[J].2007(4).9.1952-1998[J].2003(2).10.1952-2007[J].2009(2).11CarstenA.Holz.“NewcapitalestimatesforChina”,ChinaEconomicReview,2006(17),142-185.12.1978-2007[J].2009(3).4197813(2009)1990-200730.76%9.651990-20031420061981-20041981-19851986-20041520051995-2004200616(2009)1981-20074.6%2.6%5.1%1720081985-20041995-20041.2.31.13.[J].2009(19).14.1981-2004[D].200615.1995-2004[J].2005(5).16.1981-2007[J].2009(3).17.1985-2004[J].2008(6).5Backus181994BackusSZenoEnders1920091973-2006Backus2020072120082220082.Hicks231953Corden241956PrabirjitSarker25200118BackusD.,SmithG.W.“Consumptionandrealexchangeratesindynamiceconomicswithnon-tradedgoods”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,1993(35),297-316.19ZenoEnder,GernotJ.Muller.“OntheInternationaltransmissionoftechnologyshocks”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,2009(78),45-59.20.[J].2007(2).21.[J].2008(7).22.[J].2008(29).23HicksJ.R.“Aninaugurallecture”,OxfordEconomicsPapers,1953,5.24CordenW.M.“Economicexpansionandinternationaltrade:ageometricapproach”,OxfordEconomicPapers,1956(8),223-228.25PrabirjitSarkar.“TechnicalprogressandNorth-Southtermsoftrade”,ReviewofdevelopmentEconomics,6ChulChung262007272002282008ChulChung(2007)1.31.3.12001(5),434-443.26ChulChung.“Technologyprogress,termsoftrade,andmonopolisticcompetition”,InternationalEconomicJournal,2007(21),61-70.27.[J].2002(6).28.[J].2008(11).7TotalFactorProductivityTFP1.3.281.3.3VAR92.12.1.1Prebisch29Singer30Prebisch-Singer3129RaúlPrebisch.“Commercialpol