贸易与经济发展

1貿易與經濟發展TRADEANDECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTodaro,Chapters12-13Perkins,Chapters192TradeTheoryandDevelopmentExperienceTodaroCh.123緒論Introduction本講討論發展中國家(LDCsorLDC-lessdevelopedcountries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標，LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。45雁行理論以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。6TheImportanceofInternationalTradeandFinance國際貿易和金融的重要性ManyLDCsrelyheavilyonexports(usuallyprimaryproducts)ManyLDCsalsorelyheavilyonimports(typicallyofmachinery,capitalgoods,intermediateproducergoods,andconsumerproducts)7FiveBasicQuestionsaboutTradeandDevelopmentHowdoesinternationaltradeaffecteconomicgrowth?Howdoestradealterthedistributionofincome?Howcantradepromotedevelopment?CanLDCsdeterminehowmuchtheytrade?Isanoutward-lookingoraninward-lookingtradepolicybest?8貿易對發展的重要性LDCs出口趨勢和型態。出口的重要性需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性9TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatterns10Table12.11112Table12.213全世界出口值1949-2000（US＄B)0.0002000.0004000.0006000.0008000.00019491954195919641969197419791984198919941999全世界14大陸、台灣、香港、新加坡出口（1950-1999）（US＄B）0.00050.000100.000150.000200.000250.0001950195419581962196619701974197819821986199019941998大陸台灣香港新加坡15主要國家出口趨勢(1950-2003)0.000200.000400.000600.000800.0001000.00019501955196019651970197519801985199019952000US$Billion日本大陸台灣美國德國16MerchandiseManufacturesexports$millions%oftotal1990200119902001UnitedStates393,592730,8037482Germany421,100570,7918986Japan287,581403,4969693France216,588321,8437782UnitedKingdom185,172273,0867980China*62,091266,1557289Canada127,629259,8585962Italy170,304241,1348888Netherlands131,775229,4645970HongKong,Chinab82,390191,0669595Belgiuma117,703189,6247779Mexico40,711158,5474385Korea,Rep.65,016150,4399491*DataforTaiwan,China67,079122,5059394Singaporeb52,730121,7517285Spain55,642109,681757817FuelExportCountriesMerchandiseFuelsManufacturesexports$millions%oftotal%oftotal199020011990200119902001Nigeria13,59619,1509710010Algeria12,93020,050969732Azerbaijan..2,315..91..4SaudiArabia44,41768,200929079Iran,IslamicRep.19,30525,270..84..10Gabon2,2042,626..83..2Venezuela,RB17,49727,40980831011Turkmenistan..2,620..81..7Oman5,50811,0749281512Kuwait7,04216,1429379620SyrianArabRepublic4,2124,4904576368Norway34,04757,85648623321Kazakhstan..8,645..54..20RussianFederation..103,100..54..22Cameroon2,0021,74950529518MerchandiseManufacturesimports$millions%oftotal1990200119902001UnitedStates516,9871,180,1547377Germany355,686492,8257270Japan235,368349,0894457UnitedKingdom222,977331,7937579France234,436325,7527478China53,345243,6138078Italy181,968232,9106470Canada123,244227,1658183Netherlands126,098207,2847174HongKong,China84,725202,0088591Belgiuma119,702180,6606877Mexico43,548176,1627588Spain87,715142,7407173Korea,Rep.69,844141,0986361Singapore60,774116,0007381*DataforTaiwan,China54,831107,2746976Switzerland69,68184,077848219投資與儲蓄關係Y=C+I+X-M=GC+PC+GI+PI+X-MPS=Y-GR-PC私人儲蓄,GR=Govtrevenue政府收入GS=GR-GC政府經常帳餘額I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FSFS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS)貿易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資）202122TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnations2324Figure12.325TheImportanceofTradeforDevelopment:AStatisticalReviewLDCexports:trendsandpatternsImportanceofexportstodifferentdevelopingnationsDemandelasticitiesandexportearningsinstability26TheTermsofTradeandthePrebisch-SingerThesisTotalexportearningsdependon:–totalvolumeofexportssoldAND–pricepaidforexportsPrebischandSingerarguethatexportpricesfallovertime,soLDCsloserevenueunlesstheycancontinuallyincreaseexportvolumesPrebischandSingerthinkLDCsneedtoavoidadependenceonprimaryexports27貿易條件TermsofTrade(TOT)XPI/MPI出口價格指數/進口價格指數100103107109100/100103/100109/102120/109以上例子，TOT改善，對出口有利XPI/MPI1009895909487以上例子，TOT惡化，對出口不利2829TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantageRelativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel3031TheTraditionalTheoryofInternationalTradeTheprincipleofcomparativeadvantage比較利益理論Relativefactorendowmentsandinternationalspecialization:theNeoclassicalmodel新古典模型Tradetheoryanddevelopment:thetraditionalarguments傳統看法＊中國經濟崛起後對國際貿易理論的衝擊32SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:–Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobility3334SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:–Fixedresources,fullemployment,andinternationalfactorimmobility–Fixed,freelyavailabletechnologyandconsumersovereignty–Internalfactormobilityandperfectcompetition–Governmentalnon-interferenceintrade35SomeCriticismsofTraditionalFree-TradeTheoryintheContextofThirdWorldExperienceSixassumptionsoftheNeoclassicalmodelmustbescrutinized:–Balancedtradeandinternationalpriceadjustments–Tradegainsaccruingtonationals36SomeConclusionsonTradeandEconomicDevelopmentTradecanleadtorapideconomicgrowthundersomecircumst