进出口对浙江经济增长拉动作用的实证研究

:20051109:(1958),,,,;(1982),,,孙敬水1,龚江洪2(1.,310035;2.,310035):本文利用浙江省1980-2004年的统计数据,采用协整检验和VAR模型,从短期波动和长期均衡角度就进出口对浙江经济增长的拉动作用进行了实证研究研究结果表明,从长期来看,出口对经济增长的拉动作用具有显著的持续性,而进口对经济增长的拉动作用具有非显著的持续性;从短期来看,进出口对经济增长都有拉动作用,但进口对经济增长的拉动作用小于出口:出口;进口;经济增长:协整检验;VAR模型:F7528:A:10044892(2006)02002906,19780720048523,301%,14;,197803%200474%,1998,,,;,20043109,(320)972%,,,一文献回顾,:,(),,,,(GDP)[1];,,,,[2];Krugman(1979),,,,,[2],,JohnThornton(1996)1895-1992,,[3];ImadA.Moosa&ChongwooChoe(1998)1970-1995,!29!2(122)20063财经论丛CollectedEssaysonFinanceandEconomicsNo.2(General,No.122)Mar.2006[4];JimLove&RameshChandra(2005)Johansen,[5],(2001)1952-1998GDP,,[6];(2001)1978-1999,GDP,,[7];(2002)VARGDPGranger,[8];(2004),GDP,GDP,GDP[9],1980-2004,VAR,二数据描述和模型分析(一)数据描述3:Yt(GDP)(EX)t()(IM)t(),l1980-2004∀(2004)#(2004),GDP()1,Yt(EX)t(IM)t,3;GDP09580965,(二)平稳性和协整检验1.,Yt(EX)t(IM)tXtXt,Xt1,Yt(EX)t(IM)t3,,Yt(EX)t(IM)t(2),!30!财经论丛2006年第2期1(C,T,L)ADF(%)Yt(C,T,1)-2112-44171Yt(C,T,1)-3712-36335(EX)t(C,T,1)-1412-44141(EX)t(C,T,1)-4222-36335(IM)t(C,T,6)-1605-45741(IM)t(C,T,1)-5254-44421:Eviews31;(C,T,L),AICSC;2.Yt(EX)t(IM)t,,()Johansen(1995),VARAICSC,VAR3,VAR22LR1%06154070235651055719683200420076174966532,Yt(EX)t(IM)t31%1,(t):ECMt=Yt-1275(EX)t+0707(IM)t-6710(1)(03515)(03533),GDP,GDP1275,1,GDP1275;GDP-0707,,3GDP3,1992,,2090!31!孙敬水等进出口对浙江经济增长拉动作用的实证研究,,,(三)Granger因果检验Yt(EX)t(IM)t,VARGranger,:Yt=10+mj=01j(IM)t-j+nj=01j(EX)t-j+u1t(2)(EX)t=20+pj=02jYt-j+nj=02j(EX)t-j+u2t(3)(IM)t=30+Pj=03jYt-j+mj=03j(IM)t-j+u3t(4)mnp,uit(2)(3)(4)Granger(Granger,1969):H0∃1j=0(j=1,2,%,m)(5)H0,GDP,GDPGrangerYt(EX)t(IM)tGranger3(2)3GrangerFPYt(IM)tGranger00810923(IM)tYtGranger16120227(EX)t(IM)tGranger28360085(IM)t(EX)tGranger09000424Yt(EX)tGranger01490863(EX)tYtGranger473600226Granger,1Granger(22%),GDPGranger,,,GDPGranger,GDP,GDP,227%GDPGranger,(四)VAR模型的方差分解和冲击反应分析1.Granger,,Yt(4):(m)(k)m,,!32!财经论丛2006年第2期4YtPeriodS.E.Yt(EX)t(IM)t100879912040000879620105810211107279073011668000234278572401245930830760993150132524933677010736601404647942392111297014941330472291144080158369865129711718901673325654800119401001763002557857121184,2,GDP,8GDP50%,GDP,CDP10%,GDP2.,VARGDP[10]VAR(3):Yt=3j=1a1jYt-j+3j=1!1j(EX)t-j+∀1t(6)Yt=3j=1a2jYt-j+3j=1!2j(IM)t-j+∀2t(7)∀1t,Y,YYt(EX)t,,GDP4,1,3GDP,,4,,GDP120507,241345GDP,5,1,GDP,2GDP,,,GDP120235,24!33!孙敬水等进出口对浙江经济增长拉动作用的实证研究0569,三基本结论GDP(),,:,GDP,GDP,,GDP,GDP,GDPGranger,GDPGranger,,,,,,VAR,GDP,,:[1]!!.[M].:,2004.117-136.[2]!,!.[M].:,2004.66-88,115-150.[3]JohnThornton.Cointegration,causalityandexportledgrowthinMexico(18951992)[J].EconomicsLetters,1996:413416.[4]ImadA.MoosaandChongwooCboe.IstheKoreaneconomyexportdriven?[J].EconomicModeling,1998:237255.[5]JimLoveandRameshChandra.TestingexportledgrowthinBangladeshinamultivariateVARframework[J].JournalofAsianEconomics,2005:11551168.[6].&&&[J].,2001,(5):53-56.[7],,.[J].,2001,(8):14-20.[8],.[J].,2002,(10):11-14.[9],.GDP[J].,2004,(2):13-20.[10].Eviews[M].:,2002.166-170.AnEmpiricalStudyofImportandExportEffectonEconomicGrowthofZhejiangProvinceSUNJingshui1,GONGJianghong2(1.TheResearchCenterofBusinessandTrade,ZhejiangGongshangUniversity,Hangzhou310035,China;2.SchoolofEconomics,ZhejiangGongshangUniversity,Hangzhou310035,China)Abstract:ThispaperstudiesimportandexporteffectoneconomicgrowthwithZhejiangprovincedatacoveringtheperiodof19802004.TheeffectisexaminedbycointegrationtestingandVARmodeling.TheresultsshowthatfromthelongtermperspectiveexportandimporthaveapositiveeffectoneconomicgrowthofZhejiang,butfromtheshorttermperspectiveexporthasastrongereffectoneconomicgrowthofZhejiangthanimport.Keywords:export;import;economicgrowth;cointegrationtesting;VARmodel(:)!34!财经论丛2006年第2期