韩美FTA对中国对外贸易的影响分析

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《———》20095FTA(,200444):FTA(),。FTA,、。GTAP()FTA、、。:FTA,。,FTA。:;;[]F752.4[]A[]1002-4034(2009)05-0017-0810、8,200742,,15(FTA)。FTA,85%,15%3-15。:,3.0,,;、、,5-10;;、、、。、FTAFTA。JacobViner1950①。Viner,(FTA)(PTA)。,FTA,FTA,,。FTA,FTA,。,,FTA,。FTA,FTA。,FTA,。,。,FTA,,FTAFTA,[]2009-06-26[](1975-),。,MBA。17--《———》20095。,FTA,FTA,FTA②,FTA。,,。,FTA(),,,FTA。,FTA,、、。,,,。,FTA,。FTA,、,,,FTA。,,FTA,,,。、,,71%,、、IT50%。,,。,,,,。,,30,。,FTA,。182,,69%;,36%。,,FTA。、、()(Finger-KreininSimilitudeIndex),,(FingerandKreinin,1979):Si(ab,c)={ΣMinimum[Xi(ac),Xi(bc)]}100:Si(ab,c)abci;Xi(ac)aci;Xi(bc)bci。0100。ij,100;,0。,,。(2007)、,2002-2006,FTA。:、、、、、,。,18--《———》20095。(IIE)(ESI)。:19951997,0.36,0.410.42,。19951998,0.51,0.48,0.490.54。③1、:UNCOMTRADE。()2、:(2005)。(2005):,19980.5320030.58,,。3、:、(2007)。、(2007)。:,,199656.29200470.15。19992000,。4、:UNCOMTRADE。UNCOMTRADE,SITC,2000200619--《———》20095。:,200060.05200668.49,。,。、FTAFTA。(USITC)20019④。(IIE)20012004⑤。FTA,。。:FTA。,,,。ChoiandSchott(IIE,2001)FTA,GTAP。:FTAGDP0.38%-2.41%,GDP0.02%-0.13%;46%-49%,26%-30%。,。,,,FTA()486.5,GDP0.06%,FTA1.6%2.2%;,()927.8,GDP0.11%,FTA0.8%2.0%。,FTA()427.3,GDP0.05%,FTA0.9%0.6%;()666.0,GDP0.08%,FTA1.0%0.5%⑥。IIEJohnP.Gilbert2004,:(FlexibleCurrentAccount),,4.869.28,GDP0.06%0.11;,4.27,6.66。GDP0.05%0.08%。(FixedCurrentAccount),,3.537.76;GDP0.04%0.10%。FTA,3.846.24;GDP0.05%0.08%。,,2.0%(1800)0.2%(1980);FTA,0.2%(1520),0.7%(6300)。,2.3%(2)1.0%(8820);FTA,0.3%(2380),0.5%(4730)⑦。USITC,FTA、GDP0.69%0.23%,FTA54%,21%。。,,,。USITC,。:FTA()(、、、、、、、)GDP0.16%,20--《———》200950.83%(44),4.3%;,,50%⑧。200512,(KIEP)FTA。FTA。KIEP:FTAGDP0.42%-0.59%;:FTAGDP1.99%-2.27%。FTA,⑨。KozoKiyotaRobertM.Stern(2007)(MichiganModel)FTA。:,FTA22,GDP0.11%;,4.3,218。FDI(5%FDI):FTA16,GDP0.08%⑩。、FTA()GTAP(GlobalTradeAnalysisProject),GTAP(Hertel,1997),。GTAP()、、,,。GTAP,、、、、、GDP、。1GTAP:AGraphicalExpositionoftheGTAPModelbyMartinaBROCKMEIER。21--《———》20095:、、、,;:、。,;;,。,,,。,,—,、。CDE(ConstantDifferenceofElasticity),—。GTAP,(“”“”)。“”,,“”(CIF)(FOB),輥輯訛。()FTA5GTAP:6.2GTAP。6.2GTAP(20065),9657,2001。,969:、、()、、(16)、(35)、(、3)、(17)(20)。5710:1(20);2(、4);3(、、4);4(1);5(、3);6(3);7(3);8、(2);9(2);10(15)。()FTA,FTA。2.7,GDP。0.02%,,1.3。,GDP。,,28.2。GDP22--《———》20095,,GDP29.3。,;,。,,FTA,。7:GTAP。,5.97%0.68%,0.06%,0.48,。FTA,,,,。、。,,0.41%,。,,。、,。:①Viner,Jacob,TheCustomsUnionIssue,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,1950,NewYork.Theseconceptsaredis-cussedinCRSReportRL31356,FreeTradeAgreements:ImpactonU.S.TradeandImplicationsforU.S.TradePolicy,byWilliamH.6FTA23--《———》20095Cooper.②Lipsey,RichardandKelvinLancaster,“TheGeneralTheoryoftheSecondBest,”ReviewofEconomicStudies.Vol.24,11-32.③Choi,InbomandJeffreyJ.Schott,“FreeTradebetweenKoreaandtheUnitedState,”ChapterFive,ExternalImplicationofaKorea-USFTA,InstituteforInternationalEconomics,Washington,April2001.④HughArce,ChristineMcdanielandAlanfoxetal,(2001)“U.S.-KoreaFTA:TheEconomicImpactofEstablishingaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)betweentheUnitedStatesandtheRepublicofKorea,”UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommissionInves-tigationNo.332-425,September.⑤Choi,InbomandJeffreyJ.Schott,(2001)“FreeTradeBetweenKoreaandtheUnitedStates,”InstituteforInternationalE-conomicsWashington,April.⑥ChoiandSchott,(2004)“FreeTradebetweenKoreaandtheUnitedStates,”ChapterFour,PotentialEffectsofKorea-USFTA,TheKoreaEconomicInstituteofAmerica(KEI).⑦JohnP.Gilbert,(2004)“FreeTradebetweenKoreaandtheUnitedStates,”AppendixB,GTAPModelAnalysis:SimulatingtheEffectsofaKorea-USFTAUsingComputableGeneralEequilibriumTechniques,IIE.⑧HughArce,ChristineMcdanielandAlanfoxetal,(2001)“U.S.-KoreaFTA:TheEconomicImpactofEstablishingaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)betweentheUnitedStatesandtheRepublicofKorea,”UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommissionInvesti-gationNo.332-425,September.⑨Lee,JunyuandHongshikLee,(2005)FeasibilityandEconomicEffectsofaKorea-U.S.FTA,KoreanInstituteforInternationalEconomicPolicy(KIEP),December86.⑩KozoKiyotaandRobertM.Stern,(2007)“EconomicEffectsofaKorea-U.S.FreeTradeAgreement,”TheKoreaEconomicInstituteofAmerica(KEI),April42-46.輥輯訛“StructureofGTAP,”PublishedinT.W.Hertel(ed.),GlobalTradeAnalysis:ModelingandApplications,CambridgeUniver-sityPress,1997.[][1].[J].,2005,(11).[2],.[J].,2007,(6).[3],.———[J].,2007,(5).[4]Finger,J.M.andKreinin,M.E.,(1979)“AMeasureof‘ExportSimilarity’andItsPossibleUses,”TheEconomicJournal89,905-912.()ImpactofKorea-USFTAonChinaForeignTradeZHAOJin-longAbstract:Korea-USFTAwouldhaveanegativeimpactonChinaforeigntradewhiletheFTAimprovesbilateraltradecooperationandeconomicintegrationbetweenSouthKoreaandUSA.BasedonthecontentandstructureofKorea-USFTA,thispaperanalyzesboththeESI(ExportSimilarityIndex)ofChinaandKorea’sexportsinAmericanmarketandtheESIofChinaandAmerica’sexportsinKoreanmarket.ThenwithGTAPsystem,thispaperexplorestheKorea-USFTA’seffectsonChinaGDP,export,import,tradebalanceandtermsoftrade.GTAPsimulationresultsimplythatduetotheKorea-USFTA,Chinawouldsufferincreasedtradedeficitanddeterioratedtermsoftradewithreducedwelfare.However,theeffectsontradebalance,exportandimportatsectorlevelarequitedifferent.Keywords:Korea-USFTA;Chinaforeigntrade;Impact24--

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