散热模组行业客户需求快速响应机制研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文散热模组行业客户需求快速响应机制研究姓名：周宗尚申请学位级别：硕士专业：工业工程指导教师：范菲雅;梁建宏20080501I,,,,,,,,,,:,---,,,,,:JITFOX,,,,,,:,,,IISYSTEMRESEARCHOFQUICKLYRESPONSECUSTOMERDEMANDONTHERMALMODULEINDUSTRYABSTRACTWiththerapiddevelopmentofmarketingeconomy,competitionwillbefiercemoreandmore,customerdemandchangesmorefast.Thecompanythatresponsescustomerdemandquicklywillwinthetrustfromcustomer,earnmoremarketallocation,standstraightinfiercecompetitivemarketandthatwilldevelopstronglyandcontinuously.Thisthesisbeginsfromanalysisingcharacterofthermalmoduleindustry,analysisthesystemofcustomerdemandquickresponsethisindustry.Settingupevaluateindexsystemofquickresponsewithmethodofgradationanalysis,Posingkeyfactorsofeffectingquickresponse:Customerdemandforecast,BusinessProcessofCustomerdemandresponseandchoosingsupplies.Researchingwithanemphasisontwokeyfactors---CustomerdemandforecastandDemandresponseprocess.Aboutcustomerdemandforecast,thethesisanalysisandcomparescientificforecastmethod,suchasindexsmoothforecastandmultinomialforecast,makingmasteraccuratelycustomerdemandandresponsingquickly.Aboutbusinessprocess,thethesisposesadjustingorganizationmechanism,reinforcinginformationcirculationandintensifyingsupplierchainmanagementandotherimprovementmeasures,toreachgoalsofresponsingquicklycustomerdemand.Thethesisdiscussesothersystemsinfluencecustomerdemandquickresponse:JITproductionanddeliverymode,arrangingproductionscheduleandreinforcingstockmanagement.Last,inthisthesis,abovediscussingmethodswillbeappliedinFOXcompany,guidingcompanyforecastcustomerdemandwithscience,improvingresponseprocessofcustomerdemandreasonably,adjustingproductionschedule,utilizingmanpower,machineequipment,materialenoughandreasonably,andgainingmoreapplyingeffects.Achievementresearchedinthisthesiswillmakereferencetorelevantcompanyofthermalmodule.KEYWORDS:demandforecast,quicklyresponse,processreengineering,stockmanagement学硕学论2008512学硕学论权书学论属请内2008512200851211.1,,,HPDellAcerToshibaIBMFujitsuSonyNECApple,,20079019,20081.3,1.17,90.13%,,,CPU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,FX6C(ComputerCommunicationConsumerElectronicsChannelCarContent)199150%81002002200320042002006401,2007500126,,EMS,:,2000,30,1400,,,2850,33,1.6,PC1500,,,,3CPCQC121000,PCBAFlip,,15003000,PC,20,,CAD/CAE/SMT,,FR,20022003,FR,,2004,60%,2008,,40%,,,,,,,,,2~6,,,,3;,,,,,,,,,,,1.2,80,50%,,,,,,,,,19851986,KurtSalmon,,,,66,,11,40,15,,,,,25,2/3,KurtSalmon,,(QuickResponseSystem,QRS),,,,,POS(PointofSale),,,,EDI,,,6645,6215,75%,,4(CollabrativePlanning,ForecastingandReplenishment,CPFR),CPFR,,20,,,,JIT,KurtSalmon,,,,,(TheoryofConstraints,TOC)(CollaborativeProductCommerce,CPC)(ERP)(PDM)(CRM)(SCM)(AM)(BPR)(CE)(TQM)(IE)(EDI)(Multi-Agent)(DataMining,DM)[1],,Multi-Agent,,,,,CAPP,;,,[2],20%,,,,,,[3],,,5,,,,,,:[4],,,,,,,J.M.BatesC.W.Granger,,,,(ANN)[5]A.LapedesR.Farber,,,R.R.LeightonB.C.Conrath,,ARMA,,,BPSBP,,,,[6]1993Agrawal,,[7][8],,[9]1.3:1.3.1:.,,,,,6,,,FOXAVCCAURO,----,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2~4,4~6,.,FoxAVCCCAUFORCERO,,,,,,,,90%DellHPAcerLenovoToshibaIBMFujitsuSonyNECApple,,.OEM(OriginalEquipmentManufacturer,),RD(2D3D),,,,HPAB,,DellB,,DellDell,,B,,,,,,71.3.2----,,::::1:Fig1RelationshipofThermalIndustryofCustomers&Vendors:,HPDellAcerToshibaIBMLenovoFujitsuSonyNECApple,95%,,HPQUCOINFoxAVAUHeatPipeFanFin8,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,:6~7,FOXAVCAURCCIFORCEROB,,,,,,,,:,,,FOX,,,,----,,()()(),,,,,,,,1.3.3(SWOT)1(Strength)[10]::FOX,,,:,,,9,:,,,OEMODM,:,2004ISO9001,2006OHSAS18000,QEIQCIPQCOQC,,:,,,,,;20073,2008,;,;PadMylarSpongeScrew,:FOX,500126,3C,,,,,2(Weakness)::,,,,,,,:,,,,,,:,,,,:,,,3(Opportunity)::,,,,,:,,,,4(Threat):10:FOXEMS,,,,,;:,,RoHS,RoHS,,,,1.4,,FOX,,SWOTFOX,,,,,,,,----,,,,,,,JIT,,,1.5,,,,,SWOT,,112.12.1.1,,,,,,,,,[11],;,[12],,,,,,,,,,,,,21,,[13],,,,?,,,:,;,CPUSPSFAN,2004,,CPU,,CPU,12,,,??,,,2006Dell,Dell,,2.1.2:,,,,,,::,,,,,,,,2~3,,,,,,,;,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,:,:,,,,13,,,[14],L/T?;,;,,,,,,[15],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[16]2.22.2.1,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,14,,,,?,?,,,,,2.2.2:,FOX,,,,,,,,,:2Fig2FlowtoDealwithCustomerDemand::PM,,,15&,,,,PM,PM,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:PM,Service,PM,QE,RD,,,,,,:,,,,,,:3Fig3ChartofInformationFlow2.2.3:,,,,,,,,,L/T(LeadTime),16,,,,,,,,,,,,,2.3,1.:2.ABCBA0.50.250.25B1B2B30.1860.7370.0770.3330.3330.3330.7380.1680.094C1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C921121111/21/2B1B2B3B3B2B1A0.50.250.25W=17BC:(:)3.1513181C3815C231C1C3C2C1B1111C6111C5111C4C6C5C4B21517121C921C8751C7C9C8C7B3maxλ=3.047,CR=0.04λmax=3CR=0184.CCi0.093,0.368,0.039,0.083,0.083,0.083,0.184,0.042,0.024:B1B2B3BC0.50.250.25BC10.0930.0830.1850.361C20.3680.0830.0420.493C30.0390.0830.0240.146B,CBCI(j)j=1230.0235,0,0.0085RI(j)=0.58j=123,PCR=0.0137CR0.10,2.4,:,,W=(0.186,0.737,0.077)TW=131313=3.017,CR=0.015maxλW=(0.738,0.168,0.094)T193.1,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,,;,,,,,,,()(),ABC,,,,;,,:(MVC);(MGC);(BZC),,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,;20,,,,,,,,,,IntelApple,,IntelApple,,,,,,,,3.1.1:,2007,:..ABC200720,,ABC:1:----2007/USD1QU15,828,21032.0%2CP10,504,30021.2%3CO7,883,10015.9%69.2%A4AS3,334,5006.7%5UN3,060,0006.2%6IN2,372,8154.8%7DMD1,707,0003.5%8Dell1,317,8002.7%23.8%B9WI880,8001.8%10AD672,0001.4%11HP552,1001.1%12LE294,