搜索
WhatarethemostimportantmoralproblemsofourtimeByWillMcCaskillThatrepresentstheeconomichistoryofhumancivilization.[WorldGDPCapitaOverthelasttwohundredthousandyears]There'snotmuchgoingon，isthere.Forthevastmajorityofhumanhistory，PrettymucheveryonelivesontheequivalentofontheDollarperday，andnotmuchchanged.Butthen，somethingextraordinaryhappened：thescientificandindustrialrevolutions.Andthebasicallyflatgraphyoujustsawtransformsintothis.Whatthisgraphmeansisthat，intermsofpowertochangetheworld，weliveinanonunprecedentedtimeinhumanhistoryandIbelieveinethicalunderstandinghasn'tyetcaughtupwiththisfact.Thescientificandindustrialrevolutionstransformedthebothourunderstandingoftheworldandourabilitytoalterit.Whatweneedisanethicalrevolution，sothatwecanworkouthowdoweusethistremendousbountyofresourcestoimprovetheworld.Forthelast10years，mycolleaguesandIhavedevelopedaphilosophyandresearchprogramthatwecalleffectivealtruism.Ittriestorespondtothisradicalchangesinourworld，usesevidenceandcarefulreasoningtotrytoanswerthisquestion：Howcanwedothemostgood？Now,therearemanyissuesyou'vegottoaddressifyouwanttotacklethisproblem,whethertodogoodthoughyourcharityoryourcareeroryourpoliticalengagement,wprogramstofocuson,whotoworkwith.ButwhatIwantTotalkaboutiswhatIthinkisthemostfundamental.Ofallthemanyproblemsthattheworldfaces，Whichshouldwebefocusedontryingtosolvefirst？Now，I'mgoingtogiveyouaframeworkforthinkingaboutthisquestion，andtheframeworkisverysimple.Aproblem’shigherpriority,thebigger,themoreeasilysolvableandthemoreneglecteditis.Biggerisbetter,becausewe’vegotmoretogainifwedosolvetheproblem.MoreeasilysolvableisbetterbecauseIcansolvetheproblemwithlesstimeormoney.Andmostsubtlymoreneglectedisbetter,becauseofdiminishingreturns.Themoreresourcesthathavealreadybeeninvestedintosolvingaproblem,theharderitwillbetomakeadditional.Now,thekeythingthatIwanttoleavewithyouisthisframework,sothatyoucanthinkforyourselfwhatarethehighestglobalpriorities.ButIandothersintheeffectivealtruismcommunityhaveconvergedonthreemoralissuesthatwebelieveareunusuallyimportant,scoreunusuallywellinthisframework.Firstisglobalhealth.Thisissupersolvable.Wehaveanamazingtrackrecordinglobalhealth.Ratesofdeathfrommeasles,malaria,diarrhealdiseasearedownbyover70percent.Andin1980,weeradicatedsmallpox.Iestimatewetherebysavedover60millionlives.That’smorelivessavedthanifwe’dachievedworldpeaceinthatsametimeperiod.Onourcurrentbestestimates,wecansavealifebydistributinglong-lastinginsecticide-treatedbednetsforjustafewthousanddollars.Thisisanamazingopportunity.Thesecondbigpriorityisfactoryfarming.Thisissuperneglected.Thereare50billionlandanimalsusedeveryyearforfood,andthevastmajorityofthemarefactoryfarmed,livinginconditionsofhorrificsuffering.They’reprobablyamongtheworst-offcreaturesonthisplanet,andinmanycases,wecouldsignificantlyimprovetheirlivesforjustpenniesperanimal.Yetthisishugelyneglected.Thereare3000timesmoreanimalsinfactoryfarmsthantherearestraypets,butyet,factoryfarminggetsonefiftiethofthephilanthropicfunding.Thatmeansadditionalresourcesinthisareacouldhaveatrulytransformativeimpact.NowthethirdareaistheonethatIwanttofocusonthemost,andthat’sthecatagoryofexistentialrisks:eventslikeanuclearwaroraglobalpandemicthatcouldpermanentlyderailcivilizationorevenleadtotheextinctionofthehuman.LetmeexplainwhyIthinkthisissuchabigpriorityintermsofthisframework.First,size.Howbadwoulditbeiftherewereatrulyexitentialcatastrophe?Well,itwouldinvolvethedeathofallsevenbillionpeopleonthisplanetandthatmeansyouandeveryoneyouknowandlove.That’sjustatragedyofunimaginablesize.Butthen,what’smore,itwouldalsomeanthecurtailmentofhumanity’sfuturepotential,andIbelievethathumanity’spotentialisvast.Thehumanracehasbeenaroundforabout200000years,andifshelivesaslongasatypicalmammalianspecies,shewouldlastforabouttwomillionyears.Ifthehumanracewereasingleindividual,shewouldbejust10yearsoldtoday.Andwhat’smore,thehumanraceisn’tatypicalmammalianspecies.There’snoreasonwhy,ifwe’recareful,weshoulddieoffafteronlytwomillionyears.Theearthwillremainhabitablefor500millionyearstocome.Andofsomeday,wetooktothestars,thecivilizationcouldcontinueforbillionsmore.SoIthinkthefutureisgoingtobereallybig,butisitgoingtobegood?Isthehumanraceevenreallyworthpreserving?Well,wehearallthetimeabouthowthingshavebeengettingworse,butIthinkthatwhenwetakethelongrun,thingshavebeengettingradicallybetter.Butevenwithwhatwe’velearnedsofar,wecanseethatbythinkingcarefullyandbyfocusingonthoseproblemsthatarebig,solvableandneglected,wecanmakeatrulytremendousdifferencetotheworldforthousandsofyearstocome.