aon-benfield-XXXX08_全球ils等市场分析

Insurance-LinkedSecuritiesConsistencyandConfidence2011AonBenfieldSecurities,Inc.andAonBenfieldSecuritiesLimited(collectively,“AonBenfieldSecurities”)provideinsuranceandreinsuranceclientswithafullsuiteofinsurance-linkedsecuritiesproducts,includingcatastrophebonds,contingentcapital,sidecars,collateralizedreinsurance,industrylosswarranties,andderivativeproducts.Asoneofthemostexperiencedinvestmentbankingfirmsinthismarket,AonBenfieldSecuritiesoffersexpertunderwritingandplacementofnewdebtandequityissues,financialandstrategicadvisoryservices,aswellasaleadingsecondarytradingdesk.AonBenfieldSecurities’integrationwithAonBenfield’sreinsuranceoperationexpandsitscapabilitytoprovidedistinctiveanalytics,modeling,ratingagency,andotherconsultativeservices.AonBenfieldInc.,AonBenfieldSecurities,Inc.andAonBenfieldSecuritiesLimitedareallwholly-ownedsubsidiariesofAonCorporation.Securitiesadvice,productsandservicesdescribedwithinthisreportareofferedsolelythroughAonBenfieldSecurities,Inc.and/orAonBenfieldSecuritiesLimited.ForewordIamconfidentyouwillfindthefourthannualAonBenfieldSecuritiesreviewoftheinsurance-linkedsecurities(ILS)markettobeofgreatvalue.Aswithallourresearch,weofferanauthoritativereviewandanalysisoftheassetclass,andpublishthisandourquarterlyreviewsasareferencefortheILSmarket.IntheyearendingJune30,2011,despiteseveraleventsaffectingtheglobalreinsurancemarketgenerally,theILSmarketprovedresilientasasourceofrisktransfercapacity.Ourreportdetailsthemarketactivityinthis12-monthperiod,theeventsaffectingthemarket,anoverallmarketperspective,andapositiveoutlookforthefuture.Specifically,this2011editionoffers:•Ourcomprehensivereviewofthecatastrophebondmarketandthedriversaffectingthemarket;•OurexclusiveAonBenfieldILSIndices;•Areviewofinvestoractivity;•TheimpactofnaturalandeconomiceventsontheILSmarket;•AdiscussionwithRiskManagementSolutions;and•Ourperspectiveondiversifyingperils.Inside,wealsoofferaninitialupdateonthedevelopingimplicationsofthedowngradedU.S.sovereigncreditratingandglobaleconomicpressures.Basedoneventsatthetimethisreportisbeingprepared,wehaveincludedourassessmentoftheimpactoncollateralmanagementinILStransactions.Atatimewhenwehaveexperiencedglobalcatastrophes(asreportedherein),weofferourheartfeltthoughtsandprayerstothoseaffected.Inourbusiness,weworkwiththeprobabilitiesandeffectsofnaturaldisastersonadailybasis,andourdiscussionisnotintendedinanywaytominimizethepersonalimpactsofthesecatastrophes.Weappreciatethepositivefeedbackourresearchhasgenerated.Aswecontinuetoenhancetheoverallunderstandingofthisimportantmarket,Iwelcomeyourthoughtsandsuggestions.PaulSchultzPresident,AonBenfieldSecurities3AonBenfieldSecuritiesContents5AonBenfieldSecuritiesAnnualReviewoftheCatastropheBondMarket14TheAonBenfieldILSIndices16TheBuySide21ILS-RelatedMarkets24U.S.Perils32DiversifyingPerils40AnInterviewwithPeterNakada,ManagingDirectorofRiskMarkets,RiskManagementSolutions44AppendixICatastropheBondIssuanceStatistics50AppendixIIILSMarketTransactionSummary68AppendixIIISummaryofSidecarIssuanceInsurance-LinkedSecurities20114AonBenfieldSecuritiesAnnualReviewoftheCatastropheBondMarketForthe12monthsendedJune30,2011,theInsurance-LinkedSecurities(ILS)marketagaindemonstrateditsconsistentstrengthandprovidedsponsorswithanattractivealternativetocomplementtheirtraditionalreinsurancepurchases.Twostoriesemergedinthelast12months:•Ahealthyandgrowingmarketinthefirstninemonthscappedbyaveryactiveissuancecalendarinthefourthquarterof2010andthefirstquarterof2011,and•Amarketinterruptedbymodelchangesandnaturalcatastrophesinthesecondquarterof2011.OverviewDespitethecontinuedconfidenceofbothsponsorsandinvestors,alongwithsteadyissuance,outstandingbondsonriskdeclinedoverthe12monthsendingJune30,2011.Theannualissuancevolumewasonlymarginallydownat$4.4billion,from$4.7billionforthesameperiodin2010.ThetotalbondsonriskasofJune30,2011,however,finishedat$11.5billion,downalmost$1.7billionfromthepreviousJune30.Theoveralldeclinewascausedbytheinterruptionofissuanceinthesecondquarterof2011,aswellaslargematuritiesofcatastrophebondsissuedin2007and2008.Inall,thecatastrophebondmarkethasseen$37.6billionofcumulativeissuancesince1996,demonstratingitsimportanceasastrategicandefficientriskmanagementtool.OutstandingCatastropheBondVolume,2001-2011(YearsendingJune30)Source:AonBenfieldSecurities05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00020112010200920082007200620052004200320022001$MillionsPropertyOutstandingLife/HealthOutstandingCumulativePropertyBondsTotalCumulativeBonds2,0752,5893,0053,8764,7416,60812,91116,15513,24913,16711,5045AonBenfieldSecuritiesIssuanceinthe12monthsendingJune30,2011wasovershadowedbytwomajorfactors,whichslowedthegrowthoftheILSmarket.First,in2011,RiskManagementSolutions(RMS)completedmajorupdatesofitsU.S.HurricaneModelandEuropeWindstormModelinFebruaryandJuly,respectively.Bothupdatesareexplainedinmoredetailbelow(see“MarketDrivers•RMS”).TheRMSchangescameafterAIRWorldwideCorporation(AIR)hadupdateditsmodelsforthesamerisksinthethirdquarterof2010.Evenattimeofpublication,nearlysixmonth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