IDC：软件包市场分析与预测（英文版）

FilingInformation:February2003,IDC#CN321114K,Volume:1,Tab:MarketsChinaSoftwareMarket:MarketAnalysisFilingInformation:February2003,IDC#CN321114K,Volume:1,Tab:MarketsDorothyYangChinaPackagedSoftwareForecastandAnalysis,2002-2007IDCAsia/Pacific80AnsonRoadIBMTowers#38-00Singapore079970Phone[phone]Fax[phone]©2003IDCMARKETANALYSISChinaPackagedSoftwareForecastandAnalysis,2002-2007DorothyYangIDCOPINIONTheChinasoftwaremarketsloweddownin2002,butlookingahead,themarketisexpectedtohavea2002-2007CAGRof25.8%,drivenbythesteadygrowthoftheeconomy,improvementinITinfrastructureoverthepastdecade,andincreasingdemandfromenterprises.yOfthethreeprimarysoftwaremarkets,theapplicationsmarketmadeupthelargestproportionofthe2002Chinapackagedsoftwaremarket.Withtheincreasingdemandforservicesindustryapplications,cross-industryapplicationsandCRMapplications,IDCbelievesthattheenterpriseapplicationsmarketwillbethefastest-growingmarketthroughouttheforecastperiod.yFromageographicperspective,webelievetheNorth,EastandSouthChinamarketswillcontinuetobethemainconsumersforsoftwareproductsinthenextfewyears.SoftwareinvestmentfromWestChinawillnotreachthelevelsoftheotherregionsuntil2005,asthecurrent“GoingWest”campaignfocusesmainlyonthecityinfrastructureconstruction.yIndustryrestructuringandreforminthetelecommunicationsandsecuritiesmarketsnegativelyimpactedITadoptionin2002,includingsoftware,affectinggrowth.Weexpectthattheinvestmentfromthesesectorswillgraduallyreviveinlate2003.yInvestmentduringtheCommunistParty’s10thFive-YearPlanisexpectedtofollowthepreviouspattern–1:2:3;thatis,onedollarwillbeinvestedintheinitialyears,twodollarshalfwaythrough,andthreedollarsforthefinalstage.Asaresult,weanticipatethattheChinasoftwaremarketwillshowfastestgrowthin2004and2005.©2003IDC#CN321114KTABLEOFCONTENTSPInThisStudy1Methodology...............................................................................................................................................................1ExecutiveSummary..................................................................................................................................................2SituationOverview3ChinaEconomicOverview.......................................................................................................................................3ChinaPackagedSoftwareMarketOverview,2002.............................................................................................5ApplicationsSoftwareMarketReview....................................................................................................................11ApplicationDevelopmentandDeploymentSoftware..........................................................................................16SystemInfrastructureSoftware...............................................................................................................................21FutureOutlook27ForecastandAssumptions.......................................................................................................................................27ApplicationsSoftware...............................................................................................................................................31ApplicationDevelopmentandDeploymentSoftware..........................................................................................33SystemInfrastructureSoftware...............................................................................................................................35EssentialGuidance37RecommendationsforSoftwareVendors..............................................................................................................37LearnMore39RelatedResearch......................................................................................................................................................39Definitions...................................................................................................................................................................39#CN321114K©2003IDCLISTOFTABLESP1ChinaPackagedSoftwareRevenuebyIndustry,2002........................................................................82ChinaPackagedSoftwareRevenuebyGeographicArea,2002........................................................93ChinaPackagedSoftwarebyTop10Vendors,2002...........................................................................114ChinaTopVendors’RevenueandMarketShareinCross-IndustryApplications,2002.................155ChinaTopVendors’RevenueandMarketShareinInformationDataManagementSoftware,2002.............................................................................................................................................186ChinaTopVendors’RevenueandMarketShareinApplicationDesignandConstructionTools,2002...................................................................................................................................................197ChinaTopVendors’RevenueandM