XXXX年第三季度杭州物业市场分析报告_高力

Source:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Researchಕ௮േྱ:εཊᴬ֟ކ᯽ᢴ኉᪂MARKETOUTLOOKূޜ᲍༶2010Outlook2010৪᲍༶Residentialѩ࣬HighQualityOfficeюᤇ԰࣒ฆRetail᰾ۤBusinessPark۰֤ݿו2011Outlook2011৪᲍༶HIGHLIGHTSInthefirstninemonthsof2010,Hangzhouachievedsteadyeconomicgrowthledbystrongperformancesacrossmostmajormacroeconomicvariablesandsectors.Asinothermarketsacrossthecountry,manynewresidentialprojectsenteredthemarketduringthethirdquarter.SinceAugust,transactionvolumeinHangzhousresidentialmarkethassurged,withaver-agepricesalsoreboundingstrongly.ThehighqualityofficeleasingmarkethasremainedstronginthetraditionalCBDareas.Withminimalnewsupplyexpectedtoentertheseareasinthenearfu-ture,thesebuildingsshouldcontinuetoperformwell.Ontheotherhand,QianjiangNewCitywillaccountforthemajorityofvacantofficespaceintheHangzhoumarketfortheforeseeablefuture.Duringthethirdquarter,therewerenonewmajorretailprojectsenteringthemarket.Retailmacroeco-nomicdataremainedstrong,indicatingthesectorshouldcontinuetoperformwellinto2011.உٯᠮ်2010৪֊ϭόഝോযᐻ༸બѬᑑᑖҬி৩ጯ᧺៙એֱقᲂᐻ༸ுඎ᧏઄ࠑᮺقόূޜጯ๞؟॑ോযѩ࣬ূޜᐻ؃ϸ֊Տόഝ྅Հ೉നى࠰᫒ಬሠϖஇ׬ূޜуᲡᐥᐥޒ፼δࣛਇԒূᖥ8ഝзേିЌ᫒ிᑖݸל᭑ۤޡс؞ਹєᑊCBDוߣ࠰ࠫಕюᤇ԰࣒ฆጕᤠҬி਺֮ᅸϾ᧻നम᫒ಬࠑґৼᨁԒূޜᨀЇוߣपᑑᑖ៣ᄐᗚࡖثίಭᱟቹനԧോয԰࣒ฆূޜሂϗᠮጿᒮᱟጝपѐᰯϏޒᬉເಬߚוߣ፼δࣛਇോয᰾ۤςূޜ಼ಬࠑґৼോযಗѬ᰾ۤূޜ᧺៙ᗚࡖνᨀίએֱपίረਛᑖᖨ2011৪HANGZHOU౒ࢶ
গኪδ࢓঳ೖफ़࿽ρ॰ݧ݄ᬲSource:HangzhouStatisticsBureauಕ௮േྱ:ോযᑊᡘॅHANGZHOU|THIRDQUARTER|2010CityMacroeconomicOverviewߚূࣲᠲᐻ༸จᨐEconomicIndicatorsMacroEconomyLocalGovernmentRevenueGrowth%20.8%InvestmentinFixedAssetsY-o-YGrowthofInvestmentinFixedAssets%22.3%Y-o-YGrowthofRealEstateDevelopment%38.1%ForeignDirectInvestmentY-o-YGrowthofContractedFDI%32.9%Y-o-YGrowthofUtilizedFDI%13.8%ConsumptionY-o-YGrowthofRetailSales%20.4%Q3~Q12010ᐻ༸ுඎ৪֊δࣛਇࢩ᜞፟ອԂ॰៨఑ఌԁߍᩯၕ͔͕20.8%ݑࢯ᠉Їଛ᠉ݑࢯ᠉Їଛ᠉ةกߍᩯၕ͔͕22.3%૳ݤЇ৉؁ଛ᠉ةกߍᩯၕ͔͕38.1%ߤۆᅪ஡ଛ᠉ئة՞Ⴞߤ᠉ߍᩯၕ͔͕32.9%ࢳ᪮՞Ⴞߤ᠉ߍᩯၕ͔͕13.8%ໂ៿ሕф᫭ںໂ៿ډੌᭋߍᩯၕ͔͕20.4%P.2|COLLIERSINTERNATIONALHANGZHOU|THIRDQUARTER|2010ᴬ֟ކ᯽0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2004200520062007200820092010Q1~Q3FAIGrowthRate(Y-o-Y)೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘๲䭓⥛(ৠ↨)RealEstateInvestmentGrowthRate(Y-o-Y)᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䭓⥛(ৠ↨)Inthefirstninemonthsof2010,Hangzhouachievedsteadyeconomicgrowth,ledbystrongperformancesacrossmostmajormacroeconomicvariablesandsectors.Duringthisperiod,fixedassetinvestmentrose22.3%Y-o-Y,toRMB174.31billion,withrealestatefixedinvestmentenjoy-inga38.1%annualgrowthrate.Thelocalretailmarketremainedstrong,withcontinuedstrongdouble-digitgrowth,highlightedbytotalretailsalesreachingRMB156.01billion,anincreaseof20.4%Y-o-Y.Theimportandexportgrowthratesdeclinedslightlyto29.8%Y-o-Y,whilecontractedFDIandutilizedFDIgrewY-o-Yby32.9%and13.8%,respectively.Thisisnotdissimilartothetrendinothermajormarkets,asforeigncompaniesseektocapitalizeontheexpectedfutureriseintheRMBaswellasthegrowingdomesticmarket.Finally,theShanghaiExpoiscreditedwithprovidingaboosttotheHangzhoutourismmarket,withthecityreceiving47.15milliontouristsfromdomesticandoverseassourcesduringthefirstninemonthsof2010.Assuch,tourismincomereachedUSD1.32billion.ResidentialPropertyMarketInthethirdquarter,therewasapproximately1,474,400sqmofnewhous-ingsupplyaddedtothemarket,anincreaseof38.82%Y-o-Y.Thisdra-maticincreaseinsupplyduringtheperiodislargelyaconsequenceofthepreviousgovernmentpolicyintendedtocurbpropertymarketspecula-tion,whichhadbeenannouncedinAprilofthisyear.Asaresult,manydeveloperspostponedthelaunchtimeoftheirnewprojectsbyafewmonths,leadingtoasurgeofnewresidentialpropertiesinthequarter.2010৪֊ϭόഝോযᐻ༸બѬᑑᑖҬி৩ጯ᧺៙એֱقᲂᐻ༸ுඎ᧏઄ࠑᮺقόূޜጯ๞؟॑֊δࣛਇޅࣸᤣЏ୾ᤣ৩ጯࠑᮺԓূࣱିޅࣸᤣЏ୾ᤣ1,743.1Лԃࠑᮺ22.3୕ޙЏਠ؟୾ᤣிᑖ᧏઄ࠑᮺه຃ࠑᮺ38.1ཏᤘূޜ᥎Ͼ༫ᥜقᏕ۰ڮ᭑ۤᗚࡖ֊δࣛਇԓূࣼᄐዣѐཏᤘڮ᰾ۤબᲡ1,560.1Лԃه຃ࠑᮺ20.4ιε৪ሩ຃ᨁ՛بࠑᨬݸᚸᖨ29.8%ၡىնᅱࠩᤣጯ๞చל,֊δࣛਇԓূلهնᅱࠩᤣࠑᮺ32.9ࣼ᯽նᅱࠩᤣࠑᮺ13.8ιԝ࣪ߚূሩѣࠊࠩᤣ᫓θಪདԒίಭᱟ೟णЙທুלӑሂ᲍നثίಭᱟሲࡖθಪ؟॑ሂϏކূޜ1-9ഝآοרಳྜ᧛ऩಅৼ੎ڶԓূԙఄ੘ࠊԧࠩྜࣿ471.5βЙ๋ձಳྜࠩີ13.2Лᒷԃѩ࣬ႥςূޜХ৪֊δࣛਇോযϗߚוԙ୳Նεূѩ࣬ᱟጝ1,474,400৩ಭᏓ᧏ؕ৪هനεלϸ38.82%ᅸϾϏ࠵ಃਂޒХ৪4ഝओᰯ՛شϸ᧏ωඣሂࣲᠲᢴఅఈಯзᨿռ୕ޙЏ୾ളϾ೟ਠ؟۰лᐥᐥఆᨅϸಬᲂሤሂԒূ೉ᯆୖзਗ਼ࠫಬᲂሤ᪈ᰯϏޒ፼δࣛਇԒূFigure2HangzhouUtilizedFDIandContractedFDIއ2ോযࣼ᯽նᅱࠩᤣڏلهնᅱࠩᤣ૩Ծ؛ጿᒮᄃSource:HangzhouStatisticsBureauಕ௮േྱോযᑊᡘॅFigure1HangzhouFAIandRealEstateInvestmentއ1ോযޅࣸᤣЏ୾ᤣι୕ޙЏ୾ᤣ૩ԾSource:HangzhouStatisticsBureauಕ௮േྱോযᑊᡘॅ0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2004200520062007200820092010Q1~Q3UtilizedFDIGrowthRate(Y-o-Y)ᅲ䰙߽⫼໪䌘๲䭓⥛(ৠ↨)ContractedFDIGrowthRate(Y-o-Y)ড়ৠ߽⫼໪䌘๲䭓⥛(ৠ↨)HANGZHOU|THIRDQUARTER|2010COLLIERSINTERNATIONAL|P.3ᴬ֟ކ᯽Asidefromtheincreasedmarketsupply,theresidentialmarketalsoshowedsignsofstrongdemandduringthequarterafteraweaksecondquarter.SalesactivityincreasedduringJulyandAugustwithsomemid-rangeprojectsofferingtemporarysalespromotionsduringtheperiod.InAugust,1,144unitsweretransactedinXihudistrict,almosttwicetheJulyfigures,withtheMEGACity,SincereGarden,andDreamofButter-flydevelopmentsperformingstrongest.ThetotaltransactedunitsintheXiashaareaofJiangnandistrictreached1,053unitsduringAugust,withPolyEastBay,GuanlanTimes,DexinEcondo,andShimaoRivieraGardenaccountingforthemajorityofsales.DuringthetraditionalSeptemberGoldenPeriod,overalltransactionvol-umeincreased,withthemajorityofmarketactivityonceagainconcen-tratedintheXihuDistrictandXiashaareaofJianggandistricts.InSep-