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:2009201205:(70673035):(1973),,,:(1951),,,:91()2009.9(1)VOL.9,NO.120093JournalofNanjingAgriculturalUniversity(SocialSciencesEdition)Mar.,20091,2(1.,100081;2.,210095):,,??,Logit,,,:;;:F301.2:A:16717465(2009)0100010680,,,,3%-10%(ZhangandHuang,1997)[1],115,15.3%(WanandCheng,2001)[2],,(,,,1999;,1995)[3-4],,,,,?,,,:,:,,???,,1©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.(1),,,,(2)Logit,1;,0(),Logit,Logit(),Logit,1lnpi/(1-pi)=+1AGE+2AGE2+3INCO+4AREA+5M+6D2()9,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.^2/+INCO%53.129.3-AREA14.08.8+M:=1/-D:=1,=0,/-:,,,:,,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,:,,,57.3%,18.9%,,,,,,,2.2007:,(,,,,);,,,,(),(),8()1.31,:3-6:,,,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()23:,,5000/;5000/,,1238.4/,4.6/,,,,,,,2:(/)500100011220861001200032620015000250500110000109100012000013142000030000126300015000012750000597419103()(%)(%)()(%)()(%)()(%)()10.489.61238.443.24.49.66.047.24.682.018.02617.627.05.26.34.566.74.92.,(),(),858,36,4,:,91.7%;,80.6%,16.7%,2.8%;(4.3/)(4.7/),,4()98.3%,18-35,,,,,,,,,,,,(),©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(%)8.391.70.080.62.816.711.130.658.30.05Logit(Variable)(Coefficient)(Std.Error)Z(z-Statistic)(Prob.)3.43302.15631.59200.1113AGE-0.148230.0866-1.71010.0872AGE^20.001530.00081.76340.0778INCO0.64550.48231.33830.1808AREA0.037430.02051.82960.0673M-1.03683330.3025-3.42710.0006D-1.1319330.5048-2.24240.0249LRstatistic22.4516Loglikelihood-148.7388Probability(LRstat)0.0010:310%,335%,3331%3.,Logit5,,10%,,10%,20%,:,,,,,,,,,,10%,,,,1%,,,,,5%,,,,,51,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,;,:(),,,,,,:[1]ZhangL.,J.Huang,S.Rozelle.LandpolicyandlanduseinChina[J].AgriculturalPolicesinChina,1997.[2]WanGuangH.,ChenEnjing.Effectsoflandfragmenta2tionandreturnstoscaleintheChinesefarmingsector[J].AppliedEconomics,2001,33:183-194.[3],,.[J].,1999(3).[4].[J].,1995(4).(:)LandMarketandLandTransfersAmongFarmersACaseStudyinXinghuaCityofJiangsuProvinceandBinCountyofHeilongjiangProvinceWANGXing2wen1,ZHONGFu2ning2(1.CentralofInternationalRuralAgricultureDevelopment,ChineseAcademyofAgricultureSciences,Beijing100081,China;Col2legeofEconomicsandManagemente,NanjingAgricultureUniversity,Nanjing210095,China)Abstract:Itisgenerallybelievedthattheestablishmentoflandpropertyrightandlandmarketisessentialtoex2pandingfarmsizeandreducinglandfragmentationandhenceincreasingfarmers’incomeandimprovinglandutili2zationefficiency.Thequestioniswhywehavenotseenlandtransfersinalargescalewhilethetransfersareper2mittedorevenencouraged?Istheestablishmentoflandpropertyrightandlandmarketself2sufficientforbringinglargescalelandtransfers?Thisstudyinvestigatesandanalyzesfarmers’willingnesstosellorbuylandontheas2sumptionofprivateownership,andevaluatesthemajorfactorsimpactingsuchwillingnessbyemployingaLogitmodel.Itisfoundthat,duetothedominantfunctionoffarmlandinensuringemployment,thedemandcurveoflandcannotmeetsupplyone,hencetheestablishmentoflandpropertyrightandlandmarketalonedosnotnec2essarilyleadtolargescalelandtransfers.Keywords:LandFragmentation;LandMarket;LandTrade6()9©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.