上海乳业市场分析（PPT 30页）

1Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003ShanghaiDairyMarketIntroduction上海乳业市场介绍市场:上海品类:白奶,风味奶,酸奶,酸奶饮料期间:2Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003城市档案(2001年数据)CityProfile—Year2001面积(平方公里)Square人口(百万)Population常住人口PermanentResident-非农业人口Urban-农业人口Rural暂住人口TemporaryResident国内生产总值(10亿人民币)GDP(1billionRMB)人均国内生产总值(人民币:元)GDP/capita人均可支配收入(人民币:元)Percapitadisposableincome人均消费支出(人民币:元)Percapitaconsumptionexpenditure社会零售总额(10亿人民币)Totalsocialretailing(1billionRMB)北京BJ13,69912.78011.0757.6073.461.700281.7625,30011,578N/A144.33上海SH634016.74N/AN/AN/AN/A455.127,18611,7188,868172.2(Source:)3Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003总人口:1,261百万Total:1,261mio资料来源:2001中国人口统计年鉴,第5次人口普查,2002IMD世界竞争力年鉴,中国利乐分析2001ChinaPopulationStatisticsYearbook,5thpopulationcensusstatistics,2002IMDWorldCompetitivenessYearbook,TPChinaanalysis5大类中国消费群ChinaConsumerSegmentation高收入消费群:Advanced年可支配收入为15000元人民币1900万Percapitadisposableincome2%中高收入消费群:UpperValue年可支配收入10000-15000元7500万6%门槛内消费群:Emerging年可支配收入2000-5000元21300万17%门槛外消费群:Unreachable年可支配收入2000元76900万61%15%中低收入消费群:LowerValue年可支配收入5000-10000元19000万4Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003上海：中、高收入消费者人数总计为670万Source:2002StatisticYearbookofChina&TPChinaAnalysisBymiopeopleXinjiangQinghaiGansuNingxiaSichuanYunnanGuangxiGuizhouHainanHunanJiangxiFujianZhejiangHubeiShaanxiShanxiLiaoningJilinHeilongjiangShandongJiangsuAnhuiHenanTibetBeijingShanghaiTianjinGuangdongHebei2-4mio)2mio5-7mio(19%)上海:Total:16.74A+B:6.70北京:Total:13.82A+B:2.83广州:Total:9.94A+B:4.275Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003上海液态乳制品市场总揽OverallLiquidDairyMarket,Shanghai6Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003与2002年同期相比，总量迅速增加，并主要来自酸奶和酸奶饮料Compareto’02sameperiod,totalvolumehaveaslightincrease,mainlybyyogurt1103131107231160181159.1161311068103371250614711079929020000400006000080000100000120000140000'018-13'021-6'031-6酸奶饮料酸奶风味奶白奶分品类的液态奶总销量(吨)123,298131,066+6%122,852+0.3%*For2001data,onlyliquidmilk(Incl.Whitemilk&flavormilk)dataavailable.Shanghai7Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003销售额的增长低于销量增长，但酸奶仍是2003年上半年增长的推动力Valuegrowthisslowerthanvolumegrowth,butyogurtstilldrivesthegrowthinfirsthalfyearof20036857078.211.610291109118869001002003004005006007008009001000'018-13'021-6'031-6酸奶饮料酸奶风味奶白奶分品类的液态奶总销额(吨)792.9835.7+5.4%803*For2001data,onlyliquidmilk(Incl.Whitemilk&flavormilk)dataavailable.Shanghai-1.3%8Source:TNSConsumerPanel200350.6%49.4%35.1%2.5%2.5%2.3%25.6%27.1%0.10%0.1%0.1%2.5%2.1%2.5%2.8%2.1%4.2%36.9%36.7%6.3%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%'017-12'021-6'031-6玻璃瓶塑料瓶塑料杯利乐砖屋顶包利乐枕铁罐其它液态乳制品按包装品类按销售量的市场份额(%)2003年1-6月液态乳制品销售量(吨)利乐枕的快速增长使得原先的市场主要包装产品如玻璃瓶和屋顶包正在失去市场份额62165.560938.146013.83111.63059.23041.03305.25450.845117.145437.833615.44856.37823.935565.83109.32633.23454.32555.2020000400006000080000100000120000140000'011-6'021-6'031-6123,298131,066+6%122,852+0.3%Shanghai9Source:TNSConsumerPanel200347.5%47.5%34.5%3.2%3.1%3.1%26.3%0.6%0.4%2.1%24.9%4.5%4.0%4.9%4.2%2.2%3.2%37.0%36.5%3.4%5.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%'018-13'021-6'031-6玻璃瓶塑料瓶塑料杯利乐砖屋顶包塑料袋利乐枕液态乳制品按包装品类按销售额的市场份额(%)2003年1-6月液态乳制品销售额(百万人民币)销售额的变化滞后于销量的变化Valuechangelagsvolumechange382.0376.8288.226.124.926.137.734.9297289.8219.54.63.517.8208.339.231.525.717.645.527.70100200300400500600700800900'018-13'021-6'031-6792.9835.7+5.4%803.5Shanghai-1.3%WhiteMilk白奶Yogurt酸奶FlavorMilk风味奶11Source:TNSConsumerPanel200352.3%36.4%0.4%3.0%4.3%1.7%38.2%25.0%7.0%30.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%'021-6'031-6玻璃瓶利乐砖屋顶包塑料瓶利乐枕白奶按包装品类按销售量的市场份额(%)2003年1-6月白奶销售量(吨)利乐枕快速增长，并成为玻璃瓶的最大挑战者TFAgrowingfast&becomeabigthreattoRGB57885.342286.94231528953.6416.13460.97797.635499.01893.04985.7020000400006000080000100000120000140000'021-6'031-6110,723116,018+5%Shanghai12Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003OverallMarket玻璃瓶屋顶包利乐枕利乐砖市场容量02'1-6110,72357,88542,3157,7981,893(千升)03'1-6116,01842,28728,95435,4994,986产品分销02'1-692.10%40.60%68.90%29.90%17.90%(%)03'1-694.90%35.20%62.20%61.50%25.10%购买频率02'1-69.95.29.22.82(No.ofpurchase)03'1-69.54.67.34.52.2每次购买量02'1-63.98.82.231.7(升)03'1-64.18.424.12.9家庭每次购买量02'1-638.745.819.78.43.4(升)03'1-639.138.514.918.56.4平均价格02'1-66.26.26.25.87.1(RMB/升)03'1-66.16.26.25.96.3白奶的主要包装形式Shanghai13Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003品牌1是市场领导品牌，其主要产品为玻璃瓶和屋顶包，同时面临品牌2利乐枕的强烈竞争63.8%60.5%12.1%12.2%5.7%7.3%3.2%3.1%2.7%3.2%2.0%2.1%1.9%2.1%1.3%1.4%1.2%1.5%0.9%1.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%ValueshareVolumeshare品牌10品牌9品牌8品牌7品牌6品牌5品牌4品牌3品牌2品牌1前几位品牌的市场占有率(%)Shanghai14Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003现代零售渠道占据半数市场份额，同时传统零售渠道在逐渐萎缩27.9%26.1%12.2%25.1%26.3%18.5%2.2%28.0%23.5%2.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02'1-603'1-6家庭送奶免费赠品杂货店和食品店大卖场超市TotalLiquidWhiteMilkChannelImportanceShanghai15Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003在常温液态奶制品中现代零售渠道占有78%的市场份额31.7%33.5%27.8%44.4%4.6%9.0%5.4%3.8%1.7%3.2%2.1%2.8%1.5%10.1%1.2%2.5%3.8%4.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02'1-603'1-6送奶入户免费样品礼品工作单元自由市场和小贩贩卖批发杂货店和食品店大卖场超市AmbientLiquidWhiteMilkChannelImportanceShanghai16Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003常温产品正在扩大市场份额，其中利乐枕的增长最为迅猛购买量（包数）Shanghai按消费者收入分类的包装产品分析-利乐枕18Source:TNSConsumerPanel2003收入水平(人民币/月/户)按收入水平分类的利乐枕购买量000Liter1188199221382480387811029962110971050001000015000200001000'1001-2000'2001-30003000'021-6'031-6+226