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1UDC____________AnAnalysisofMarketStructureandPerformanceinChineseTobaccoProcessingIndustry2WTO3NEIONEIO1985-1999AELAEL25%PCMPCM1998-19991989-1998H3AbstractTheonlyindustrythathasasystemlikemonopolyinChinaistobaccoindustry.Undersuchastyle,Chinagrewintothelargesttobaccoproducing&sellingcountryintheworldandtobaccoindustrybecamethemostimportantsourceofnationalrevenue.Butmeanwhile,duetothecompetitionandisolationamongprovinces,scaleeconomyisprecluded.ThecompetingabilityofChinesetobaccoindustryisweak.WhenChinabecomesamemberofWTOinthenearfuture,theindustrywillfaceamoredifficultsituation.ThispaperanalysesthemarketstructureandmarketpowerofChinesetobaccoprocessingindustry.BasedontheoriesandmethodsofIndustrialOrganization,thisresearchiscarriedonat3levels:industry,provinceandfirm.Attheindustrylevel,NEIOmodelisusedasthemainanalyzingtool.Itisasimultaneousmodelthatincludesthreeequations:thecostfunction,thedemandfunctionandthemarketequilibriumcondition.ConjecturalElasticityandLernerIndexcanbeusedrespectivelytoestimateanindustry’smarketstructureandmarketpower.Theresultsfromtheindustrydataof1985-1999showthatthemarketstructureofChinesetobaccoprocessingindustryisoligopolisticcompetitionandtheindustryhasstrongmarketpower.ThenAELmodelisusedtocalculatetheAllocativeEfficiencyLoss(AEL)oftobaccoprocessingindustry.AELhasalreadybeenuptoahighlevelinrecentyears.Theaveragelossisabout25%.Atthelevelofprovinceandfirm,PCMmodelisutilized.PCMmodelcananalyzetherelationsbetweenprofitabilityandconcentration&conduct.Inaddition,itisabletocalculatetheunderlyingdegreeofcollusionamongprovincesorfirms.Theconclusionscomingfromthetwolevels’analysesare:profitabilityispositivelyaffectedbyconcentration;capitaldensity,labordensityandmediuminputdensityhavenegativeinfluencesonprofitability.Surplusproductioncapacitymayexistinthisindustry.Thereisperfectcollusionbetweenprovinces.Thusitprovesthatthemarketpowerisstrongintobaccoprocessingindustry,Attheendofthispaper,progressingtacticstowardstheindustryareproposed.Weshouldpaymoreattentiontotechnologyreformandeducation,adjusttobaccotaxsystem,establishseveraltobaccofirmgroupsandchangethenon-tariffbarriersintotariffbarrier.KeyWords:TobaccoProcessingIndustryMarketStructureMarketPowerPerformanceModel41.171.271.381.482.92.192.1.192.1.2112.1.3132.2162.2.1162.2.2192.2.3192.3212.3.1212.3.2222.3.3232.4WTO243.263.12653.1.1263.1.2263.2293.2.1293.2.2293.2.3293.2.4313.3323.3.1NEIO323.3.2AEL343.3.3353.3.4PCM374.394.1NEIO394.1.1NEIO394.1.2404.1.3AEL434.2PCM444.2.1PCM444.2.2464.2.3495.535.1535.2535562-1102-2112-3122-4172-1182-51997182-6203-1273-1354-1NEIO404-2NEIO404-3L414-41998-1999424-5AEL434-61999444-7PCM454-8PCM1998-1999474-9494-10PCM1989-1998504-11H524-125271.1.119871219989501620.45118.08122.4912.37.05.81999551276.6%199730%199837.22%10.8%WTO1.281.312345WTO1.4WTO1234NEIOAELPCMPCMNEIO3WTO92.2.197%2.1.1119491603019784.9120361.3,3812-119781990120338562.21217319903260.51991199119951.3%19953480.8199519993287.9201.781978381199828006.410.5%1999803.4919782028090402-2197859.2199939.511978187.2235.32.5199910902-119781181.81164.339.561203.119791302.61292.845.011245.419801520.01466.550.71367.619811704.11590.564.041585.719821885.21608.388.271911.819831937.81820.489.292238.619842119.62039.2102.272478.119852359.52209.0188.76111.332488.019862560.52371.1229.87133.972886.019872848.52545.6281.2164.153140.019883050.72820.4369.12209.913387.819893152.02878.5458.34251.923629.519903260.53017.2517.64280.273855.619913226.53133.7563.49293.234113.019923279.93100.4661.32314.984334.819933336.23270.8809.5378.394199.319943397.83273.9859.62536.913859.119953480.83399.4994.48602.923934.319963401.73317.81179.89689.773872.319973368.43389.51281.32751.053789.919983349.53284.81328.59772.923762.619993287.93264.21369.81803.491949-1999112-2197859.2199052.63736.79225.0199151.63692.99110.1199250.173617.08973.3199348.53564.68842.4199446.73514.08779.0199545.03465.08702.0199643.03420.08648.0199741.33379.08599.0199840.23343.08538.0199939.51949-1999199920001/32.1.21103.1461226%3764.431%20001.221370020101%20102-3122-319961997200020101998-20002001-201012.3412.3612.813.81.20.8159.079.29.610.71.41.1%33.032.932.030.03.003.033.043.210.40.42.712.762.913.101.70.617.517.417.214.7-0.7-1.534803521364333401.1-0.919982195237719806731953~1980282.1%8010.9%13.4%17.6%1997801.60.7~0.821107~8%2001~20105~6%3~4%13WTO31984592.8%1993203.66.1%199514.3%40002001~20102.1.3112042%14101/450%801989~199451852370200199720151958.288.81%10091756.980%199748021.77%1998·PM92032859255519991900016%15219850.719989.4199850020519982001915712100185530199743.26%3.89%199730%2%ÀÁÂ15080%40001996PM3652.5PM40%2.22.2.11199940003287.911999161552540~5040002198119901704326091.3%108.6867.86.99697.31482.11.132-419911998199049340.912002.5210.5%35%19983.85%110%1998319780.6%198195.95.6%1998326119813397.3%2-1495%1999525019963401.73108.8163.64.8%14.3%2.1.2172-4()(%)()(%0()(%)()(%)()(%)197827.22.30489.641.43464.639.31135.111.4365.35.53197934.42.64577.344.32444.734.14114.58.79104.98.05198050.93.35595.139.15501.933.02157.710.38161.010.591981