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(,100029):,::2005212203:,,1978,,1,,90%,(MTBE);10%,,120,30,,,(H2CO),11Zn/CrO2Cu/ZnO/Al2O3Cu/ZnO/Al2O3/360255255/MPa35155,%25012012/kJt-17045138(),,2070,LurgiICILCM,ICILurgiHaldorTopsoeKrupp2Uhde,,,CO22211,200440160Mt/a,33100Mt/a,31180Mt/a,22Mt,%19993419828101271378011200038103291092811776152001381412915728199772002381413016529184791820034011331140301717812520044016033100311808113,200020%,20048%;2013%;142(2006),20041912%25%,200031610;1816%(916%910%);614%;215%;,2002,,,,,200230164Mt,200433100Mt,318%199927137Mt,200431180Mt,4143Mt,311%,,,()212,90,500800kt/a,1Mt/a300kt/a281527Mt/a,7013%2004332004kt/aBeaumont(BMC)()600Ar-RaziNo13()660Celanese()370Ar-RaziNo14()660ClearLake()420Ibn-Sina()900Lyondell()520KaltimMethanol()660Millennium()440()660Hoechst-CelaneseCanada()530AzotFactorySchenkino()350Methanex()360Metafrax()840MethanexNo11()800NCK()780MethanexNo12()925SwverodonetskAzot()650MethanexNo13()975()320CaribbeanMethanolCo()550DEA()440Trinidad&TobagoMethanolCO1A1()460MitteldeutscheErdol-Raffinerie()600MethanolNo14()550MethanorNo11()480Trinidad&TobagoMethanolCO1B1()550MethanorNo12()480TitanMethanol()850()830Metor()735ICI()500Supermetanol()670Methanex()500GulfPetrochemicalIndustry()462Methanex()700NPC()660Methanex()700Atlas(BPMethanes,04)1700Methanex()530()830NatinalPetroChemicalsNo11330Ar-RaziNo11()850NatinalPetroChemicalsNo12300Ar-RaziNo12()85028527Methanex,1315%,,40%,2422Methanor960kt/a,1019%,,010179/m3(01148/m3),01014/m3(01118/m3),0123/m3(1190/m3),20,,2004MethanesBPAtlas1170Mt/a,0130Mt/a,68%,73%,213MTBE/2004,34%,MTBE22%,10%,(MMA)3%,30%,36%27%21%17%,200410149Mt,34%,1,4-,,-,,MTBE,MTBE,MTBE,,MTBE,MTBECO,,,1999-2004314%412%,2004101471Mt/a91225MtCelaneseBPDaicelAcetexMillenniumChemical,80%CO-,,,,,,,,,,(MTO)(MTG),,,2004,33%,30%,21%,16%214,,,,,,14Mt/a,,442005-2008Mt/a/2006GTLResources1NPC41170Sohar120070185QAFAC2130MetanolOrient()01851ARRAZI()1170Petronas11702008()0185Methanex1130342(2006)1,,,,0150Mt/a,,5517%,2007,201056162Mt/a,31180Mt/a37197Mt/a;201569145Mt/a,42171Mt/a,,,,215,52%,318%,512%MT2BE,MTBE517%PerstorpFormox90,,5318%,,200435%5512%,20098176Mt,MTBE,,MTBE,2005MT2BEMTBE200112190Mt,200323100Mt,20103144MtMTBE:;;;,,20100170Mt,20158150Mt,202060Mt(MMSA),150400kt,200250kt,5080kt,,33111999-2002,200241116Mt,1999-2002712%;2003,,20045176Mt,1814%2004,,200441406Mt,3419%;1136Mt,218%;7614%,71551766Mt,3219%3122004552004Mt20042003,%41406312663419013250121849012960124222150122701124831301214012130150117200111901122-118011060111-3160110101094715,4422200,20046100Mt/a,4140Mt,3419%200kt/a,2003150kt/a,350kt/a,,,,6Mt/a,80kt/a6418%,10kt/a,,,,,,,313,48,112115,1/20,0185/m3,;,,118t,,600kt/a600850/t,1140/t314,,2002117996Mt,46%;2003114017Mt,3111%20041136Mt,2316%2004,278kt,2015%,8;1811%1615%915%315100,5176Mt,:30%,12%,417%,8%,516%,613%,4%,,,20048150Mt/a,300,,,813%,,20041150Mt/a,11152Mt,17%90,10kt1158%,100%;;,316,,,,,,,,2004,2515/t,1119%,,,2003,22700/t;3,42350/t,56,2505/t38%,,20042738/t,1612%;317,542(2006)1,,662004-2008kt2005400300200200200690060030060075030020071200&(MGC)8505202300600200815002004,50,5Mt,201015Mt/a,201524110Mt/a,,50100kt20106160Mt,4Mt,,,20103Mt,1190Mt;20154130Mt/a,2185Mt40MTBE,1160Mt/a,1150Mt,MTBE,MTBE,;,MTBE,,,(PVA)(DMT),,,,,,201012131Mt,201524152Mt77Mt2004201020152004-2010,%2010-2015,%5120151002411023169195176111622310015111416(-)-0156313811104,,,,,6422,,(),,201011162Mt,201523100Mt,,,MethanolMarketAnalysisandPredictionbothatHomeandAbroadMaJunrui(SINOPECEconomicTechnologyResearchinstitute,Beijing100029)ABSTRACTThechangingcharacteristicsofmarketsupplyanddemand,production,tradeandpriceofmethanolbothathomeandabroadwereintroduced,andthedevelopingtrendoffuturemarketwereanalyzedandpredicted.Keywords:methanol,supplyanddemand,production,consumption,prediction(DGMK)(SCI)2005101214,70,,,LindeBASFSnamprogetti(),Bologna,,Sabic/BPFritz-Haber:,,ShellTiO2/SiO2,,M.Clerici20TS-1TS-1TS-1,UhdeDegussa/Uhde;-TS-1()742(2006)1