搜索
2008/02370COMMERCIALRESEARCH:1001-148X(2008)02-0044-031,2,3(1.,200092;2.,200092;3.,250000):2090,,,,,,,,:;;:F71913:ATheForecastingModelofCateringMarketDemandBasedonTimeSeriesAnalysisZHANGZheng-zhong1,WANGHua2,WANGYing-xin3(1.Chinesisch-DeutschesHochschulkollegderTongjiUniversity,Shanghai200092,China;2.DepartmentofMathematics,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai200092,China;3.TrainingCenterShandongForestryScienceandTechnology,Jinan250000,China)Abstract:Sincethebeginningofthe1990scateringindustryinChinahasdevelopedrapidly.Althoughthesituationisexcellentincateringindustry,theforecastisverynecessaryformarketdemandinordertoavoidtheriskofblindinvest2ment.Marketforecastisbasedonmarketsurveyandusescertaintechnologiestopredictthemarkettrendsforthenextperiodandfactorsaffectingthechangesinmarketing.Keywords:marketdemandforecast;timeseriesanalysis;empiricalstudy:2007-04-10:(1980-),,,,::,:10571137;,:05RZ122090,,,151991-20052216%,716,1991512%20051315%,,2004GDP117%,413%2005:[1].[M].:,2000.[2],.[J].2002,21(6):19-22.[3]Jonassen,D.H.Thinkingtechnology:Chaosinin2structionaldesign[J].EducationalTechnology,Vol.30,1990(2).[4]MattDavisonandJ.S.Shiner.manyEntropies,manyDisorders[J].OpenSystems&informationDynamics,Vol.10,2003(9):281-196.[5][EB/OL].[6]orderoutofchaos[EB/OL].=143&cUrl==/results.asp?nSector=3cSector=Theory.[7]ChaosTheory[EB/OL].=3&cSector=Theory.(:)370:451207,516,,,,,,,,,,,16,(),,,()1.,,:Ft+1=Yt+(1-)FtYtt,Ftt,(01)F1=Y1,(MSE):MSE=2.(1),:Yt^=a+btYt^Yt,tab,,6t=0,ab:6Y=na6tY=b6t2:SY=6ni=1(Yi-Yi^)2n-mm,m=2(2),:Yt^=a+bt+ct2,abc:6Y=na+c6t26tY=b6t26t2Y=a6t2+c6t4,:Yt^=abtab,,ab:6logY=nloga6tlogY=logb6t22005,1998-2004SPSS(1)1,,:Yt^=a+bt+ct2SPSS,10.05,(P=0.00F0.05),R2=0.994,F=1103.72,:Yt^=2031.55+222.711t+7.7477t2200710125.2167,29462008/02,2007-2010211()198940511434111703-29101703-37152855905176261199041918445166772-251867724115716887117829199149210519120009-2712000995120880943119139199258917654171416-651014162381694061070173425199380011852120991-5211099143719585512661460971994117511111116873463141266696103085152713438419951579121433114647146105353101512614418511031491996202419181615872820813127213971205982235196858199724331322621009781711290221842162848268113910819982816142769141397461986032351152894318712989919993199163338179984-1391199842923114335375414563420003752163970116741-2171567413555191635438414184720014368194663151666-2941616664247149656507915367520025433135418184759141452414994185630584218388920036065176236116022-17014602257941649666677167079200474861071551454533701545476643180895758711001122007-20102007200820092010()10125121671125214363124411637513692182032,2007-20101111%1016%1011%,,SPSS,,,,,,,,,,:[1].K..[M].:,2002.[2],.SPSSforWindows[M].:,2004.[3].[M].:,2004.[4].[M].:,2004.[5].[J].,2006(6).[6].:[J].,2006(24).[7],.[J].,2001(0).(:)